---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  /Users/jamesdkim/Library/CloudStorage/Dropbox/Working Papers/Leadership Visits and Military Expenditures
> /FPA Second R&R/Replication files submission/Log File 2024-0714.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:  14 Jul 2024, 14:07:24

. do "/var/folders/62/m64nc3cs4hq7ngdw43v_nxzc0000gn/T//SD40775.000000"

. 
. ********************************************************************************
. ********************************************************************************
. ********************************************************************************
. *Main Paper
. ********************************************************************************
. ********************************************************************************
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. use visit_milspending_final, clear

. 
. xtset ccode year
       panel variable:  ccode (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1950 to 2007, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

. eststo clear

. 
. ********************************************************************************
. *Figure 1: Bivariate Comparison
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. graph bar defspend_ch, ///
> over(visit_nolameduck_official, relabel(1 "Without Early-Year Presidential Visits" 2 "After Early-Year Presidential
>  Visits")) ///
> graphregion(color(white)) ytitle(Percentage Change in Defense Expenditures) ///
> bar(1, color(gs10))  bar(2, color(gs10)) 

. 
. graph export "bivariate.eps", as(eps) preview(on) replace
(file bivariate.eps written in EPS format)

. 
. 
. ********************************************************************************
. *Table 1: Main Regression Results
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. **Model 1-4: Last years both terms
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.region, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,831
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1309                                         min =          2
     between = 0.7346                                         avg =       35.9
     overall = 0.1868                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(15)     =   33811.40
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3154923   .0527388     5.98   0.000     .2121261    .4188586
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -.9066991    .334822    -2.71   0.007    -1.562938     -.25046
  visit_lastyear_official |    .923428   1.480514     0.62   0.533    -1.978326    3.825182
                     demo |  -.0547319   .2534098    -0.22   0.829     -.551406    .4419422
                  ln_cinc |  -.0505314   .0825526    -0.61   0.540    -.2123316    .1112688
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .5124328   .2637569     1.94   0.052    -.0045212    1.029387
                          |
                  realgdp |  -1.99e-07   2.86e-07    -0.70   0.487    -7.59e-07    3.61e-07
                   growth |   3.255313   1.654723     1.97   0.049     .0121151    6.498511
               landcontig |   .6586714    .240493     2.74   0.006     .1873138    1.130029
                     viol |  -.2625904   .1287217    -2.04   0.041    -.5148802   -.0103006
                  rivalry |   .0333128   .1752653     0.19   0.849    -.3102009    .3768266
                 l_postcw |  -.5343307   .2514122    -2.13   0.034     -1.02709   -.0415718
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.779918   .3113424     5.72   0.000     1.169698    2.390138
                       4  |   2.929477   .3154454     9.29   0.000     2.311215    3.547739
                       5  |   .0447881   .1614041     0.28   0.781    -.2715581    .3611343
                          |
                    _cons |  -.0696444   .5662664    -0.12   0.902    -1.179506    1.040217
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |   4.916684
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model1

. * Year FE
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry i.year i.region, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,831
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.2626                                         min =          2
     between = 0.6899                                         avg =       35.9
     overall = 0.3082                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(50)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .2511246    .051592     4.87   0.000     .1500061     .352243
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -.9044435   .3612561    -2.50   0.012    -1.612492   -.1963945
  visit_lastyear_official |   .9505452   1.273497     0.75   0.455    -1.545462    3.446553
                     demo |   .1188517   .2353812     0.50   0.614    -.3424869    .5801903
                  ln_cinc |  -.1485929   .0734711    -2.02   0.043    -.2925936   -.0045921
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .4274337   .2486567     1.72   0.086    -.0599245    .9147918
                          |
                  realgdp |   1.37e-07   1.67e-07     0.82   0.411    -1.89e-07    4.63e-07
                   growth |   5.279618   2.041827     2.59   0.010     1.277712    9.281524
               landcontig |   .6027175   .2677962     2.25   0.024     .0778466    1.127588
                     viol |  -.2023456   .1395008    -1.45   0.147    -.4757621    .0710709
                  rivalry |  -.0084993   .1627639    -0.05   0.958    -.3275107     .310512
                          |
                     year |
                    1952  |  -7.158806   6.692569    -1.07   0.285      -20.276    5.958389
                    1953  |  -18.95849   7.647661    -2.48   0.013    -33.94763    -3.96935
                    1954  |  -21.50188   8.067199    -2.67   0.008    -37.31329   -5.690457
                    1955  |  -23.17864   8.087622    -2.87   0.004    -39.03008    -7.32719
                    1956  |  -17.98928    7.02572    -2.56   0.010    -31.75943   -4.219117
                    1957  |  -21.01647   6.690684    -3.14   0.002    -34.12997   -7.902974
                    1958  |  -22.64312   7.149504    -3.17   0.002    -36.65589   -8.630351
                    1959  |  -19.55411   6.921096    -2.83   0.005    -33.11921   -5.989012
                    1960  |  -19.14454   7.362449    -2.60   0.009    -33.57467   -4.714405
                    1961  |  -17.96659   7.923712    -2.27   0.023    -33.49678   -2.436402
                    1962  |  -18.67207   6.897862    -2.71   0.007    -32.19163   -5.152506
                    1963  |  -20.83114   6.976723    -2.99   0.003    -34.50526   -7.157012
                    1964  |  -19.37036    7.12087    -2.72   0.007    -33.32701   -5.413713
                    1965  |  -20.31348   6.796966    -2.99   0.003    -33.63529   -6.991674
                    1966  |  -20.21212   6.990921    -2.89   0.004    -33.91408   -6.510169
                    1967  |  -17.92478   7.405452    -2.42   0.015     -32.4392   -3.410359
                    1968  |  -20.06858   6.864383    -2.92   0.003    -33.52252   -6.614636
                    1969  |  -21.44172   6.913576    -3.10   0.002    -34.99208   -7.891357
                    1970  |  -18.95385   7.113276    -2.66   0.008    -32.89561   -5.012083
                    1971  |  -19.17066   7.178335    -2.67   0.008    -33.23994   -5.101382
                    1972  |  -20.02062   6.991555    -2.86   0.004    -33.72381   -6.317421
                    1973  |  -21.03923   6.773953    -3.11   0.002    -34.31593   -7.762523
                    1974  |  -18.32037   7.298885    -2.51   0.012    -32.62592   -4.014817
                    1975  |  -17.91129   6.689105    -2.68   0.007     -31.0217   -4.800888
                    1976  |  -21.65062   6.741294    -3.21   0.001    -34.86331   -8.437922
                    1977  |  -20.05338   7.113392    -2.82   0.005    -33.99537   -6.111389
                    1978  |  -20.22625   6.778748    -2.98   0.003    -33.51235   -6.940149
                    1979  |  -20.52426   7.130582    -2.88   0.004    -34.49994   -6.548574
                    1980  |  -20.20433   6.992738    -2.89   0.004    -33.90985   -6.498817
                    1981  |  -19.73145   6.985521    -2.82   0.005    -33.42282   -6.040079
                    1982  |   -19.1658   7.224473    -2.65   0.008    -33.32551   -5.006093
                    1983  |  -20.71507   6.883834    -3.01   0.003    -34.20713   -7.223001
                    1984  |  -20.75492   7.139117    -2.91   0.004    -34.74733   -6.762509
                    1985  |  -20.12669   6.810354    -2.96   0.003    -33.47474   -6.778644
                    1986  |   -20.5438   7.272464    -2.82   0.005    -34.79757   -6.290034
                    1987  |  -20.04222   7.017653    -2.86   0.004    -33.79657   -6.287869
                    1988  |  -20.89279   7.352715    -2.84   0.004    -35.30384   -6.481731
                    1989  |  -20.35762   6.991239    -2.91   0.004     -34.0602   -6.655042
                    1990  |  -20.31091   7.039014    -2.89   0.004    -34.10713     -6.5147
                    1991  |  -21.00283   7.114438    -2.95   0.003    -34.94687   -7.058791
                    1992  |  -20.93877   7.268102    -2.88   0.004    -35.18399   -6.693556
                    1993  |  -21.44018   6.953917    -3.08   0.002    -35.06961   -7.810754
                    1994  |  -20.94306   6.860249    -3.05   0.002     -34.3889   -7.497217
                    1995  |  -21.43326   7.246506    -2.96   0.003    -35.63616   -7.230375
                    1996  |  -20.34364   7.065686    -2.88   0.004    -34.19213   -6.495146
                    1997  |   -20.8778   7.061632    -2.96   0.003    -34.71834   -7.037255
                    1998  |  -19.72865     6.9635    -2.83   0.005    -33.37686   -6.080439
                    1999  |  -19.51681   7.215244    -2.70   0.007    -33.65843   -5.375194
                    2000  |   -20.8466   7.101948    -2.94   0.003    -34.76616   -6.927038
                    2001  |  -20.71113   7.112189    -2.91   0.004    -34.65077   -6.771497
                    2002  |  -19.58301   6.896984    -2.84   0.005    -33.10085   -6.065175
                    2003  |  -20.82981    7.09909    -2.93   0.003    -34.74377    -6.91585
                    2004  |  -20.46665    7.15824    -2.86   0.004    -34.49654   -6.436757
                    2005  |  -20.92592   7.130228    -2.93   0.003    -34.90091   -6.950925
                    2006  |  -20.58271   7.032689    -2.93   0.003    -34.36653   -6.798892
                    2007  |  -20.33286   6.833257    -2.98   0.003     -33.7258   -6.939922
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.534268   .3354752     4.57   0.000     .8767488    2.191787
                       4  |   3.397714   .3145713    10.80   0.000     2.781166    4.014262
                       5  |   .0031044   .1941669     0.02   0.987    -.3774556    .3836645
                          |
                    _cons |   19.09097   7.050903     2.71   0.007     5.271452    32.91048
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.5972665
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model2

. * Country FE
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.ccode, robust cluster(ccode)
note: 740.ccode omitted because of collinearity
note: 920.ccode omitted because of collinearity

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,831
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1326                                         min =          2
     between = 1.0000                                         avg =       35.9
     overall = 0.1943                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(10)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3054665   .0539493     5.66   0.000     .1997279    .4112052
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -.8787364   .3626834    -2.42   0.015    -1.589583   -.1678899
  visit_lastyear_official |   .9361789   1.529338     0.61   0.540    -2.061268    3.933626
                     demo |  -.2438789   .3904866    -0.62   0.532    -1.009219    .5214606
                  ln_cinc |   1.076102   .8548443     1.26   0.208    -.5993618    2.751566
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .4726663   .2825819     1.67   0.094    -.0811841    1.026517
                          |
                  realgdp |  -2.39e-07   3.49e-07    -0.68   0.495    -9.24e-07    4.46e-07
                   growth |   3.231587   1.790491     1.80   0.071    -.2777107    6.740886
               landcontig |  -2.100749   2.523854    -0.83   0.405    -7.047412    2.845913
                     viol |  -4.139647   3.688358    -1.12   0.262     -11.3687    3.089403
                  rivalry |  -.1912423   .4220162    -0.45   0.650    -1.018379    .6358942
                 l_postcw |  -.6790987   .2640376    -2.57   0.010    -1.196603   -.1615944
                          |
                    ccode |
                      41  |   4.958979   3.895974     1.27   0.203     -2.67699    12.59495
                      42  |   3.911583   3.456241     1.13   0.258    -2.862524    10.68569
                      51  |   1.837846   1.132078     1.62   0.104    -.3809861    4.056679
                      52  |   .2865201   .2686568     1.07   0.286    -.2400375    .8130777
                      70  |   3.486701   3.649095     0.96   0.339    -3.665395     10.6388
                      90  |   4.081095   3.521251     1.16   0.246     -2.82043    10.98262
                      91  |    4.86484    4.15375     1.17   0.242     -3.27636    13.00604
                      92  |   4.527868    3.83645     1.18   0.238    -2.991437    12.04717
                      93  |    5.03697   4.142809     1.22   0.224    -3.082787    13.15673
                      95  |   5.168014   4.226961     1.22   0.221    -3.116678     13.4527
                     100  |   2.429676   2.100105     1.16   0.247    -1.686454    6.545806
                     101  |   -1.92481   1.728589    -1.11   0.265    -5.312783    1.463163
                     110  |   3.708312   2.324043     1.60   0.111     -.846729    8.263353
                     130  |  -.4988337   .6305016    -0.79   0.429    -1.734594    .7369268
                     135  |    2.52519   2.379172     1.06   0.289    -2.137902    7.188281
                     140  |  -3.543609   3.114689    -1.14   0.255    -9.648288    2.561069
                     145  |   4.247003   3.471761     1.22   0.221    -2.557524    11.05153
                     150  |   4.647083   3.986651     1.17   0.244    -3.166609    12.46077
                     155  |   2.690271   2.381342     1.13   0.259    -1.977073    7.357615
                     160  |    1.63567   1.735382     0.94   0.346    -1.765617    5.036957
                     165  |    4.45357   3.742232     1.19   0.234     -2.88107    11.78821
                     200  |   1.292123   .6071122     2.13   0.033     .1022055    2.482041
                     210  |   3.001832   1.738096     1.73   0.084    -.4047732    6.408437
                     211  |   3.306619   1.804611     1.83   0.067     -.230353    6.843591
                     220  |   2.387674   .6843923     3.49   0.000      1.04629    3.729058
                     230  |   2.550543   1.331255     1.92   0.055    -.0586691    5.159756
                     235  |   1.040692   1.118083     0.93   0.352    -1.150711    3.232095
                     260  |   .1319677   .4471972     0.30   0.768    -.7445228    1.008458
                     290  |   6.156342   1.713384     3.59   0.000      2.79817    9.514513
                     310  |     5.1514   2.890446     1.78   0.075      -.51377    10.81657
                     316  |  -.6389501    1.29151    -0.49   0.621    -3.170264    1.892364
                     317  |   .1238544   .7277454     0.17   0.865      -1.3025    1.550209
                     325  |  -1.449114   2.931646    -0.49   0.621    -7.195034    4.296807
                     349  |   5.509028   4.236168     1.30   0.193    -2.793708    13.81176
                     350  |   5.257053   2.274328     2.31   0.021     .7994514    9.714655
                     355  |   3.796068   2.970966     1.28   0.201    -2.026919    9.619055
                     360  |   2.755002   2.284453     1.21   0.228    -1.722443    7.232448
                     366  |   2.533123   1.146155     2.21   0.027     .2867004    4.779545
                     367  |   1.689476   .6063492     2.79   0.005     .5010533    2.877898
                     368  |   .9939535   .3973686     2.50   0.012     .2151255    1.772782
                     385  |   1.735509   .7930268     2.19   0.029     .1812053    3.289813
                     390  |   1.120178   .7883592     1.42   0.155    -.4249775    2.665334
                     640  |   4.219119   1.419827     2.97   0.003      1.43631    7.001929
                     713  |   1.291875   1.483364     0.87   0.384    -1.615464    4.199215
                     732  |   .8836184    1.05595     0.84   0.403    -1.186005    2.953242
                     740  |          0  (omitted)
                     770  |  -3.211278   2.562308    -1.25   0.210    -8.233309    1.810752
                     840  |  -2.151989   1.832621    -1.17   0.240    -5.743861    1.439882
                     900  |  -2.443563   2.112782    -1.16   0.247     -6.58454    1.697414
                     920  |          0  (omitted)
                          |
                    _cons |   8.162246    6.49811     1.26   0.209    -4.573815    20.89831
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |   4.916684
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model3

. * Additional controls
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry nukes_us_b affinity_us l_postcw i.region, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,831
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1331                                         min =          2
     between = 0.7426                                         avg =       35.9
     overall = 0.1889                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(17)     =   62371.41
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |    .313267   .0525025     5.97   0.000      .210364    .4161701
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -.8896435   .3438826    -2.59   0.010    -1.563641   -.2156459
  visit_lastyear_official |   .9094018   1.491167     0.61   0.542    -2.013231    3.832035
                     demo |   .0013746   .2568166     0.01   0.996    -.5019768    .5047259
                  ln_cinc |  -.0334646   .0902954    -0.37   0.711    -.2104403    .1435112
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .5082864   .2706343     1.88   0.060    -.0221471     1.03872
                          |
                  realgdp |  -2.30e-07   2.81e-07    -0.82   0.413    -7.81e-07    3.21e-07
                   growth |    2.91611   1.629499     1.79   0.074     -.277649     6.10987
               landcontig |   .5607689   .2424431     2.31   0.021     .0855892    1.035949
                     viol |  -.2201117    .114507    -1.92   0.055    -.4445412    .0043178
                  rivalry |   .0372875    .175657     0.21   0.832     -.306994    .3815689
               nukes_us_b |  -.3681527   .4100072    -0.90   0.369    -1.171752    .4354465
            affinity_us_b |   .6796255    .311881     2.18   0.029       .06835    1.290901
                 l_postcw |  -.2982224   .2272529    -1.31   0.189    -.7436298    .1471851
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.660771    .310213     5.35   0.000     1.052764    2.268777
                       4  |   3.092438   .4762864     6.49   0.000     2.158934    4.025942
                       5  |    .004171   .2041645     0.02   0.984     -.395984     .404326
                          |
                    _cons |  -.0328132   .6078007    -0.05   0.957    -1.224081    1.158454
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.9093869
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model4

. **Model 5-8: Last years in second term only
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.region, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,831
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1340                                         min =          2
     between = 0.7334                                         avg =       35.9
     overall = 0.1897                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(15)     =   34830.31
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3150992   .0531089     5.93   0.000     .2110076    .4191907
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |   -.947382   .3421328    -2.77   0.006     -1.61795   -.2768141
  visit_lameduck_official |   2.917797    3.09001     0.94   0.345    -3.138511    8.974105
                     demo |  -.0067095   .2497565    -0.03   0.979    -.4962233    .4828043
                  ln_cinc |  -.0599467   .0824617    -0.73   0.467    -.2215687    .1016754
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .5144281    .272336     1.89   0.059    -.0193406    1.048197
                          |
                  realgdp |  -1.64e-07   2.71e-07    -0.60   0.546    -6.94e-07    3.67e-07
                   growth |   3.371798   1.736594     1.94   0.052    -.0318627    6.775459
               landcontig |   .6597032   .2435792     2.71   0.007     .1822968     1.13711
                     viol |  -.2568461   .1251128    -2.05   0.040    -.5020626   -.0116295
                  rivalry |   .0362135    .174593     0.21   0.836    -.3059826    .3784096
                 l_postcw |  -.5466823   .2544986    -2.15   0.032     -1.04549   -.0478743
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.768143   .3076818     5.75   0.000     1.165098    2.371188
                       4  |   2.959751   .3214093     9.21   0.000       2.3298    3.589702
                       5  |   .0588804   .1618349     0.36   0.716    -.2583103    .3760711
                          |
                    _cons |  -.1679386   .5831604    -0.29   0.773    -1.310912    .9750348
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.9072423
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model5

. * Year FE
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry i.year i.region, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,831
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.2646                                         min =          2
     between = 0.6879                                         avg =       35.9
     overall = 0.3099                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(50)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .2504641   .0519431     4.82   0.000     .1486575    .3522707
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |  -.8801426    .350353    -2.51   0.012    -1.566822   -.1934633
  visit_lameduck_official |   2.755066   2.908855     0.95   0.344    -2.946184    8.456317
                     demo |   .1736862    .232036     0.75   0.454    -.2810961    .6284684
                  ln_cinc |  -.1568421   .0747396    -2.10   0.036    -.3033291   -.0103552
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .4324321   .2602968     1.66   0.097    -.0777402    .9426045
                          |
                  realgdp |   1.65e-07   1.62e-07     1.02   0.309    -1.53e-07    4.83e-07
                   growth |   5.254295   2.043537     2.57   0.010     1.249036    9.259553
               landcontig |   .5939914   .2797726     2.12   0.034     .0456472    1.142336
                     viol |  -.1950431   .1369049    -1.42   0.154    -.4633718    .0732856
                  rivalry |  -.0081231   .1623444    -0.05   0.960    -.3263122     .310066
                          |
                     year |
                    1952  |  -7.142954   6.691206    -1.07   0.286    -20.25748    5.971569
                    1953  |  -18.94449   7.649101    -2.48   0.013    -33.93645   -3.952528
                    1954  |  -21.50064      8.062    -2.67   0.008    -37.30187   -5.699406
                    1955  |  -23.17754   8.084854    -2.87   0.004    -39.02356   -7.331517
                    1956  |  -17.99055   7.024035    -2.56   0.010     -31.7574   -4.223692
                    1957  |  -21.01241   6.688407    -3.14   0.002    -34.12145   -7.903374
                    1958  |  -22.64384   7.143633    -3.17   0.002     -36.6451   -8.642577
                    1959  |  -19.55864   6.914149    -2.83   0.005    -33.11012   -6.007157
                    1960  |  -19.15616   7.350504    -2.61   0.009    -33.56289   -4.749438
                    1961  |   -18.4642   7.662184    -2.41   0.016     -33.4818   -3.446593
                    1962  |  -18.67324   6.892111    -2.71   0.007    -32.18153   -5.164946
                    1963  |  -20.83186   6.971849    -2.99   0.003    -34.49643   -7.167284
                    1964  |  -19.37627   7.112912    -2.72   0.006    -33.31732   -5.435218
                    1965  |  -20.25911   6.808703    -2.98   0.003    -33.60392   -6.914292
                    1966  |  -20.21579   6.985566    -2.89   0.004    -33.90725   -6.524335
                    1967  |  -17.93278   7.397168    -2.42   0.015    -32.43096   -3.434595
                    1968  |  -20.07455   6.857575    -2.93   0.003    -33.51515   -6.633953
                    1969  |  -21.32738   6.944592    -3.07   0.002    -34.93853   -7.716234
                    1970  |  -18.96395   7.103186    -2.67   0.008    -32.88594    -5.04196
                    1971  |  -19.17531   7.171833    -2.67   0.008    -33.23184   -5.118771
                    1972  |  -20.02265   6.987254    -2.87   0.004    -33.71742   -6.327888
                    1973  |  -20.99002   6.785784    -3.09   0.002    -34.28991   -7.690126
                    1974  |  -18.32809   7.292334    -2.51   0.012     -32.6208   -4.035378
                    1975  |  -17.92198     6.6833    -2.68   0.007    -31.02101   -4.822954
                    1976  |  -21.49978   6.797044    -3.16   0.002    -34.82175   -8.177822
                    1977  |  -20.06086   7.107216    -2.82   0.005    -33.99075   -6.130977
                    1978  |   -20.2335   6.772629    -2.99   0.003    -33.50761   -6.959388
                    1979  |  -20.53546   7.121797    -2.88   0.004    -34.49392   -6.576989
                    1980  |  -20.21665   6.982608    -2.90   0.004    -33.90231   -6.530989
                    1981  |  -19.58714     7.0618    -2.77   0.006    -33.42801   -5.746263
                    1982  |  -19.18038   7.215187    -2.66   0.008    -33.32189   -5.038875
                    1983  |  -20.73994   6.866776    -3.02   0.003    -34.19857   -7.281306
                    1984  |  -20.77767    7.12639    -2.92   0.004    -34.74514   -6.810206
                    1985  |  -20.04526   6.819224    -2.94   0.003    -33.41069   -6.679825
                    1986  |  -20.56888    7.25658    -2.83   0.005    -34.79152   -6.346245
                    1987  |  -20.06673   7.005359    -2.86   0.004    -33.79698   -6.336483
                    1988  |  -20.92091   7.337548    -2.85   0.004    -35.30224   -6.539578
                    1989  |   -20.6573    6.92452    -2.98   0.003    -34.22911    -7.08549
                    1990  |  -20.34608   7.020139    -2.90   0.004     -34.1053   -6.586862
                    1991  |   -21.0392   7.093981    -2.97   0.003    -34.94315   -7.135251
                    1992  |  -20.97465   7.249866    -2.89   0.004    -35.18412    -6.76517
                    1993  |  -21.32112   6.985001    -3.05   0.002    -35.01147   -7.630768
                    1994  |  -20.98026   6.843179    -3.07   0.002    -34.39265   -7.567877
                    1995  |  -21.47076   7.227732    -2.97   0.003    -35.63686    -7.30467
                    1996  |  -20.38393   7.048821    -2.89   0.004    -34.19937   -6.568498
                    1997  |  -20.75641   7.096172    -2.93   0.003    -34.66465   -6.848167
                    1998  |  -19.77415    6.94178    -2.85   0.004    -33.37979   -6.168511
                    1999  |  -19.55815   7.194894    -2.72   0.007    -33.65989    -5.45642
                    2000  |  -20.88956   7.080852    -2.95   0.003    -34.76777   -7.011342
                    2001  |  -21.13155   6.911231    -3.06   0.002    -34.67732   -7.585788
                    2002  |  -19.62694   6.876443    -2.85   0.004    -33.10452   -6.149361
                    2003  |  -20.87339   7.078212    -2.95   0.003    -34.74643   -7.000346
                    2004  |  -20.51095   7.136755    -2.87   0.004    -34.49874   -6.523172
                    2005  |  -20.73195    7.18875    -2.88   0.004    -34.82164   -6.642258
                    2006  |   -20.6251   7.012803    -2.94   0.003    -34.36994   -6.880259
                    2007  |  -20.37317   6.814634    -2.99   0.003    -33.72961   -7.016733
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.519889      .3339     4.55   0.000     .8654566    2.174321
                       4  |   3.426576   .3181272    10.77   0.000     2.803058    4.050094
                       5  |   .0177818   .1991692     0.09   0.929    -.3725826    .4081462
                          |
                    _cons |   19.01379   7.063825     2.69   0.007     5.168952    32.85864
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.5904281
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model6

. * Country FE
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.ccode, robust cluster(ccode)
note: 740.ccode omitted because of collinearity
note: 920.ccode omitted because of collinearity

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,831
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1359                                         min =          2
     between = 1.0000                                         avg =       35.9
     overall = 0.1974                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(10)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3047149   .0543474     5.61   0.000      .198196    .4112338
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |  -.9399908   .3688223    -2.55   0.011    -1.662869   -.2171124
  visit_lameduck_official |   3.030346    3.17352     0.95   0.340    -3.189639    9.250331
                     demo |  -.2054959   .3914105    -0.53   0.600    -.9726465    .5616546
                  ln_cinc |    1.13171   .8730218     1.30   0.195     -.579381    2.842802
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .4723923   .2907161     1.62   0.104    -.0974009    1.042185
                          |
                  realgdp |  -2.04e-07   3.30e-07    -0.62   0.536    -8.51e-07    4.43e-07
                   growth |   3.329019    1.86267     1.79   0.074    -.3217468    6.979786
               landcontig |  -2.217073   2.570688    -0.86   0.388    -7.255529    2.821383
                     viol |  -4.391125   3.786786    -1.16   0.246    -11.81309    3.030839
                  rivalry |  -.2023035   .4172532    -0.48   0.628    -1.020105    .6154978
                 l_postcw |   -.697548   .2700825    -2.58   0.010      -1.2269   -.1681961
                          |
                    ccode |
                      41  |    5.27788   3.996552     1.32   0.187    -2.555217    13.11098
                      42  |   4.186476   3.556149     1.18   0.239    -2.783447     11.1564
                      51  |   1.923489   1.162866     1.65   0.098    -.3556871    4.202666
                      52  |    .325169   .2735169     1.19   0.235    -.2109143    .8612523
                      70  |   3.652792   3.713995     0.98   0.325    -3.626504    10.93209
                      90  |   4.407445   3.621822     1.22   0.224    -2.691196    11.50609
                      91  |    5.23711   4.264498     1.23   0.219    -3.121152    13.59537
                      92  |   4.821745   3.948125     1.22   0.222    -2.916437    12.55993
                      93  |   5.352383   4.244139     1.26   0.207    -2.965975    13.67074
                      95  |   5.638324   4.404622     1.28   0.201    -2.994576    14.27122
                     100  |   2.581602   2.144666     1.20   0.229    -1.621866     6.78507
                     101  |   -2.02388   1.776243    -1.14   0.255    -5.505251    1.457491
                     110  |   3.883793   2.364969     1.64   0.101    -.7514613    8.519047
                     130  |  -.5034089   .6369642    -0.79   0.429    -1.751836     .745018
                     135  |    2.72803   2.439852     1.12   0.264    -2.053992    7.510053
                     140  |  -3.775685   3.211717    -1.18   0.240    -10.07053    2.519164
                     145  |   4.516079   3.553972     1.27   0.204    -2.449578    11.48174
                     150  |   4.954123   4.099327     1.21   0.227     -3.08041    12.98866
                     155  |   2.847366   2.433411     1.17   0.242    -1.922033    7.616764
                     160  |   1.745085   1.765093     0.99   0.323    -1.714433    5.204603
                     165  |   4.732693   3.849913     1.23   0.219    -2.812997    12.27838
                     200  |   1.283992   .6076391     2.11   0.035     .0930409    2.474942
                     210  |   3.122272   1.785262     1.75   0.080     -.376778    6.621322
                     211  |   3.378182   1.833357     1.84   0.065    -.2151325    6.971496
                     220  |    2.47153   .6946077     3.56   0.000     1.110124    3.832936
                     230  |   2.636764    1.36334     1.93   0.053    -.0353329    5.308861
                     235  |   .9454656   1.160226     0.81   0.415    -1.328535    3.219466
                     260  |   .1981548   .4596035     0.43   0.666    -.7026515    1.098961
                     290  |   6.289471   1.767809     3.56   0.000     2.824629    9.754312
                     310  |   5.371672   2.981092     1.80   0.072      -.47116     11.2145
                     316  |  -.7096019   1.311295    -0.54   0.588    -3.279694     1.86049
                     317  |   .1216617   .7443776     0.16   0.870    -1.337292    1.580615
                     325  |  -1.607279   2.992396    -0.54   0.591    -7.472267     4.25771
                     349  |   5.811239   4.357095     1.33   0.182     -2.72851    14.35099
                     350  |   5.448912   2.332283     2.34   0.019     .8777214     10.0201
                     355  |   4.009954   3.056067     1.31   0.189    -1.979827    9.999734
                     360  |   2.915607   2.346703     1.24   0.214    -1.683847    7.515061
                     366  |   2.647413   1.175453     2.25   0.024     .3435665    4.951259
                     367  |   1.765429    .625681     2.82   0.005     .5391165    2.991741
                     368  |   1.026463   .4087167     2.51   0.012     .2253927    1.827533
                     385  |   1.687793   .8045542     2.10   0.036     .1108957     3.26469
                     390  |   1.074682   .8000838     1.34   0.179    -.4934532    2.642818
                     640  |   4.363319   1.455736     3.00   0.003     1.510129    7.216508
                     713  |    1.44514   1.502174     0.96   0.336    -1.499067    4.389346
                     732  |   1.022719   1.063311     0.96   0.336    -1.061334    3.106771
                     740  |          0  (omitted)
                     770  |  -3.386865    2.62502    -1.29   0.197    -8.531809    1.758079
                     840  |   -2.24403   1.864634    -1.20   0.229    -5.898645    1.410586
                     900  |  -2.553346    2.15075    -1.19   0.235    -6.768738    1.662047
                     920  |          0  (omitted)
                          |
                    _cons |   8.532918   6.626493     1.29   0.198    -4.454768    21.52061
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.9072423
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model7

. * Additional controls
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry nukes_us_b affinity_us l_postcw i.region, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,831
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1364                                         min =          2
     between = 0.7418                                         avg =       35.9
     overall = 0.1919                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(17)     =   39280.16
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3128716    .052875     5.92   0.000     .2092385    .4165046
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |  -.9343834   .3492756    -2.68   0.007    -1.618951   -.2498159
  visit_lameduck_official |   2.948006   3.085277     0.96   0.339    -3.099026    8.995037
                     demo |   .0518429   .2544466     0.20   0.839    -.4468632     .550549
                  ln_cinc |   -.043588   .0902903    -0.48   0.629    -.2205537    .1333777
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .5102043   .2789539     1.83   0.067    -.0365353    1.056944
                          |
                  realgdp |  -1.95e-07   2.66e-07    -0.73   0.463    -7.17e-07    3.26e-07
                   growth |   3.021729   1.704989     1.77   0.076    -.3199881    6.363446
               landcontig |   .5559707   .2355193     2.36   0.018     .0943613     1.01758
                     viol |  -.2153863    .113654    -1.90   0.058     -.438144    .0073713
                  rivalry |    .040297   .1756691     0.23   0.819     -.304008    .3846021
               nukes_us_b |  -.3597284   .4178625    -0.86   0.389    -1.178724    .4592669
            affinity_us_b |   .7033796   .3160408     2.23   0.026     .0839509    1.322808
                 l_postcw |  -.3009167   .2319013    -1.30   0.194    -.7554349    .1536016
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.636109   .3027184     5.40   0.000     1.042791    2.229426
                       4  |   3.111518   .4851236     6.41   0.000     2.160693    4.062343
                       5  |   .0139014   .2112696     0.07   0.948    -.4001793    .4279822
                          |
                    _cons |  -.1377282    .624435    -0.22   0.825    -1.361598    1.086142
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.8992028
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model8

. 
. esttab using table1.tex, replace label se nodepvars booktabs alignment(l) width(0.8\hsize) ///
> b(3)  addn(Robust standard errors are clustered by countries and in parentheses.) /// 
> star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** .01 *** .001) stats(N r2, label("N Obs." "Overall $R^2$")) nogaps scalars("N Obs." "R squared
> " ) ///
> title(Regression Analysis of U.S. Presidential Visit and Military Expenditure\label{reg1})
(output written to table1.tex)

. 
. ********************************************************************************
. *Counerfactual mentioned in paper
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. *Predicted values for each observation
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.region, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,831
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1309                                         min =          2
     between = 0.7346                                         avg =       35.9
     overall = 0.1868                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(15)     =   33811.40
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3154923   .0527388     5.98   0.000     .2121261    .4188586
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -.9066991    .334822    -2.71   0.007    -1.562938     -.25046
  visit_lastyear_official |    .923428   1.480514     0.62   0.533    -1.978326    3.825182
                     demo |  -.0547319   .2534098    -0.22   0.829     -.551406    .4419422
                  ln_cinc |  -.0505314   .0825526    -0.61   0.540    -.2123316    .1112688
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .5124328   .2637569     1.94   0.052    -.0045212    1.029387
                          |
                  realgdp |  -1.99e-07   2.86e-07    -0.70   0.487    -7.59e-07    3.61e-07
                   growth |   3.255313   1.654723     1.97   0.049     .0121151    6.498511
               landcontig |   .6586714    .240493     2.74   0.006     .1873138    1.130029
                     viol |  -.2625904   .1287217    -2.04   0.041    -.5148802   -.0103006
                  rivalry |   .0333128   .1752653     0.19   0.849    -.3102009    .3768266
                 l_postcw |  -.5343307   .2514122    -2.13   0.034     -1.02709   -.0415718
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.779918   .3113424     5.72   0.000     1.169698    2.390138
                       4  |   2.929477   .3154454     9.29   0.000     2.311215    3.547739
                       5  |   .0447881   .1614041     0.28   0.781    -.2715581    .3611343
                          |
                    _cons |  -.0696444   .5662664    -0.12   0.902    -1.179506    1.040217
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |   4.916684
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. predict yhat
(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(158 missing values generated)

. 
. *Example 1: South Korea
. g visit_cf=visit_nolastyear_official

. replace visit_cf=0 if _n==1740
(1 real change made)

. 
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_cf visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp growth landcontig 
> viol rivalry l_postcw i.region, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,831
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1309                                         min =          2
     between = 0.7347                                         avg =       35.9
     overall = 0.1869                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(15)     =   33897.47
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                            (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        |               Robust
            defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            defspend_ch |
                    L1. |   .3154599   .0527354     5.98   0.000     .2121004    .4188194
                        |
               visit_cf |  -.9184436   .3355742    -2.74   0.006    -1.576157   -.2607303
visit_lastyear_official |   .9230148   1.480582     0.62   0.533    -1.978872    3.824902
                   demo |  -.0552331   .2533042    -0.22   0.827    -.5517002    .4412341
                ln_cinc |  -.0504795   .0825343    -0.61   0.541    -.2122439    .1112848
                        |
               midcount |
                    L1. |   .5134426   .2637692     1.95   0.052    -.0035355    1.030421
                        |
                realgdp |  -1.98e-07   2.86e-07    -0.69   0.489    -7.59e-07    3.63e-07
                 growth |   3.256387   1.654664     1.97   0.049     .0133047    6.499469
             landcontig |   .6598489   .2405052     2.74   0.006     .1884673     1.13123
                   viol |  -.2637032   .1287941    -2.05   0.041     -.516135   -.0112713
                rivalry |   .0315522   .1749296     0.18   0.857    -.3113036     .374408
               l_postcw |  -.5361745   .2515078    -2.13   0.033    -1.029121   -.0432282
                        |
                 region |
                     2  |   1.780251   .3113455     5.72   0.000     1.170025    2.390477
                     4  |   2.929882    .315341     9.29   0.000     2.311825    3.547939
                     5  |   .0406534   .1612637     0.25   0.801    -.2754177    .3567244
                        |
                  _cons |  -.0665363   .5659942    -0.12   0.906    -1.175865    1.042792
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                sigma_u |          0
                sigma_e |  4.9166015
                    rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. predict yhat2
(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(158 missing values generated)

. list defspend_ch yhat yhat2 year if _n==1740

      +-----------------------------------------+
      | defspe~h        yhat       yhat2   year |
      |-----------------------------------------|
1740. |     .034   -1.602543   -.7012876   2003 |
      +-----------------------------------------+

. 
. *Example 2: UK
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.region, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,831
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1340                                         min =          2
     between = 0.7334                                         avg =       35.9
     overall = 0.1897                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(15)     =   34830.31
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3150992   .0531089     5.93   0.000     .2110076    .4191907
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |   -.947382   .3421328    -2.77   0.006     -1.61795   -.2768141
  visit_lameduck_official |   2.917797    3.09001     0.94   0.345    -3.138511    8.974105
                     demo |  -.0067095   .2497565    -0.03   0.979    -.4962233    .4828043
                  ln_cinc |  -.0599467   .0824617    -0.73   0.467    -.2215687    .1016754
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .5144281    .272336     1.89   0.059    -.0193406    1.048197
                          |
                  realgdp |  -1.64e-07   2.71e-07    -0.60   0.546    -6.94e-07    3.67e-07
                   growth |   3.371798   1.736594     1.94   0.052    -.0318627    6.775459
               landcontig |   .6597032   .2435792     2.71   0.007     .1822968     1.13711
                     viol |  -.2568461   .1251128    -2.05   0.040    -.5020626   -.0116295
                  rivalry |   .0362135    .174593     0.21   0.836    -.3059826    .3784096
                 l_postcw |  -.5466823   .2544986    -2.15   0.032     -1.04549   -.0478743
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.768143   .3076818     5.75   0.000     1.165098    2.371188
                       4  |   2.959751   .3214093     9.21   0.000       2.3298    3.589702
                       5  |   .0588804   .1618349     0.36   0.716    -.2583103    .3760711
                          |
                    _cons |  -.1679386   .5831604    -0.29   0.773    -1.310912    .9750348
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.9072423
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. predict yhat3
(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(158 missing values generated)

. 
. g visit_cf2=visit_nolameduck_official

. replace visit_cf2=0 if _n==1006
(1 real change made)

. 
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_cf2 visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp growth landcontig
>  viol rivalry l_postcw i.region, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,831
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1341                                         min =          2
     between = 0.7331                                         avg =       35.9
     overall = 0.1897                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(15)     =   34748.55
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                            (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        |               Robust
            defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            defspend_ch |
                    L1. |   .3149869   .0531084     5.93   0.000     .2108963    .4190774
                        |
              visit_cf2 |  -.9532695   .3428073    -2.78   0.005    -1.625159   -.2813795
visit_lameduck_official |   2.917646   3.089875     0.94   0.345    -3.138397     8.97369
                   demo |  -.0073354   .2498594    -0.03   0.977    -.4970509      .48238
                ln_cinc |  -.0599498   .0825039    -0.73   0.467    -.2216545    .1017549
                        |
               midcount |
                    L1. |   .5151245   .2723363     1.89   0.059    -.0186449    1.048894
                        |
                realgdp |  -1.64e-07   2.71e-07    -0.61   0.545    -6.95e-07    3.67e-07
                 growth |   3.374802   1.736898     1.94   0.052     -.029456    6.779059
             landcontig |   .6611512     .24407     2.71   0.007     .1827829     1.13952
                   viol |  -.2574492   .1253517    -2.05   0.040    -.5031341   -.0117643
                rivalry |   .0350138   .1748298     0.20   0.841    -.3076463    .3776738
               l_postcw |  -.5456478   .2545399    -2.14   0.032    -1.044537   -.0467588
                        |
                 region |
                     2  |   1.767543   .3080115     5.74   0.000     1.163852    2.371235
                     4  |   2.960993   .3215829     9.21   0.000     2.330702    3.591284
                     5  |   .0590436   .1621161     0.36   0.716    -.2586982    .3767854
                        |
                  _cons |  -.1667974     .58338    -0.29   0.775    -1.310201    .9766065
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                sigma_u |          0
                sigma_e |  4.9070773
                    rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. predict yhat4
(option xb assumed; fitted values)
(158 missing values generated)

. list defspend_ch yhat3 yhat4 year if _n==1006

      +----------------------------------------+
      | defspen~h      yhat3      yhat4   year |
      |----------------------------------------|
1006. | 4.4470506   3.420256   4.364307   1983 |
      +----------------------------------------+

. 
. 
. ** Appendix
. ***Table 1: Alternate DV: Defense spending "level" per GDP
. **Model 1-4: Last years both terms
. xtreg defspend_rgdp L.defspend_rgdp visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realg
> dp growth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.region, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,875
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.8411                                         min =          3
     between = 0.9978                                         avg =       36.8
     overall = 0.9390                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(14)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
            defspend_rgdp |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            defspend_rgdp |
                      L1. |   .9626967   .0074111   129.90   0.000     .9481713    .9772221
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -.0009355   .0003087    -3.03   0.002    -.0015405   -.0003305
  visit_lastyear_official |   .0002983   .0008308     0.36   0.720      -.00133    .0019267
                     demo |  -.0009876   .0004142    -2.38   0.017    -.0017993   -.0001758
                  ln_cinc |   .0001501   .0000852     1.76   0.078     -.000017    .0003171
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .0005008   .0004894     1.02   0.306    -.0004584    .0014599
                          |
                  realgdp |  -5.38e-10   2.15e-10    -2.50   0.012    -9.60e-10   -1.16e-10
                   growth |  -.0295917   .0154126    -1.92   0.055    -.0597998    .0006164
               landcontig |   -.000152   .0007414    -0.21   0.838    -.0016051    .0013011
                     viol |   .0004632   .0003529     1.31   0.189    -.0002285    .0011549
                  rivalry |  -.0004198   .0005166    -0.81   0.416    -.0014322    .0005927
                 l_postcw |  -.0005536   .0002048    -2.70   0.007    -.0009549   -.0001523
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   .0006971   .0003541     1.97   0.049     3.05e-06    .0013911
                       4  |  -.0000964    .000396    -0.24   0.808    -.0008726    .0006797
                       5  |   .0004118   .0004596     0.90   0.370     -.000489    .0013125
                          |
                    _cons |   .0036318   .0012538     2.90   0.004     .0011745    .0060891
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  .00703598
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model1

. * Year FE
. xtreg defspend_rgdp L.defspend_rgdp visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realg
> dp growth landcontig viol rivalry i.year i.region, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,875
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.8493                                         min =          3
     between = 0.9985                                         avg =       36.8
     overall = 0.9421                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(50)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
            defspend_rgdp |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            defspend_rgdp |
                      L1. |   .9635678   .0084542   113.97   0.000     .9469978    .9801377
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -.0006833   .0003038    -2.25   0.024    -.0012787   -.0000879
  visit_lastyear_official |   .0003891   .0007256     0.54   0.592    -.0010329    .0018112
                     demo |  -.0005544   .0003241    -1.71   0.087    -.0011898    .0000809
                  ln_cinc |   .0001024   .0000833     1.23   0.219    -.0000608    .0002656
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |     .00056   .0004822     1.16   0.245     -.000385     .001505
                          |
                  realgdp |  -3.57e-10   2.24e-10    -1.59   0.112    -7.97e-10    8.28e-11
                   growth |  -.0291807   .0158089    -1.85   0.065    -.0601656    .0018042
               landcontig |   -.000422   .0006305    -0.67   0.503    -.0016578    .0008138
                     viol |   .0005206   .0003651     1.43   0.154     -.000195    .0012361
                  rivalry |  -.0004399   .0005036    -0.87   0.382    -.0014271    .0005472
                          |
                     year |
                    1952  |   .0036866   .0029455     1.25   0.211    -.0020864    .0094597
                    1953  |  -.0022172   .0042051    -0.53   0.598    -.0104591    .0060247
                    1954  |   -.006621   .0043653    -1.52   0.129    -.0151768    .0019348
                    1955  |  -.0076561   .0041631    -1.84   0.066    -.0158157    .0005035
                    1956  |  -.0049249   .0034335    -1.43   0.151    -.0116544    .0018047
                    1957  |  -.0040118   .0050834    -0.79   0.430    -.0139751    .0059515
                    1958  |  -.0094296   .0029856    -3.16   0.002    -.0152812   -.0035781
                    1959  |  -.0074992    .003416    -2.20   0.028    -.0141944    -.000804
                    1960  |  -.0053658   .0040978    -1.31   0.190    -.0133973    .0026658
                    1961  |  -.0048183   .0040647    -1.19   0.236     -.012785    .0031483
                    1962  |  -.0037927   .0036884    -1.03   0.304    -.0110219    .0034364
                    1963  |  -.0054632   .0038781    -1.41   0.159     -.013064    .0021377
                    1964  |  -.0056866   .0035653    -1.59   0.111    -.0126744    .0013012
                    1965  |  -.0056107   .0036972    -1.52   0.129    -.0128572    .0016357
                    1966  |  -.0050319   .0037308    -1.35   0.177     -.012344    .0022803
                    1967  |   -.003171   .0040325    -0.79   0.432    -.0110745    .0047325
                    1968  |    -.00706   .0041783    -1.69   0.091    -.0152492    .0011292
                    1969  |  -.0057435   .0039146    -1.47   0.142     -.013416    .0019291
                    1970  |  -.0039602   .0037344    -1.06   0.289    -.0112796    .0033591
                    1971  |  -.0052414   .0037309    -1.40   0.160    -.0125537     .002071
                    1972  |  -.0041928   .0037083    -1.13   0.258    -.0114609    .0030753
                    1973  |  -.0053775   .0037518    -1.43   0.152    -.0127308    .0019758
                    1974  |  -.0045493   .0040049    -1.14   0.256    -.0123988    .0033001
                    1975  |   -.003974   .0040428    -0.98   0.326    -.0118977    .0039497
                    1976  |  -.0037759   .0047449    -0.80   0.426    -.0130758     .005524
                    1977  |  -.0026462    .004084    -0.65   0.517    -.0106507    .0053582
                    1978  |  -.0062433   .0039899    -1.56   0.118    -.0140633    .0015767
                    1979  |   -.006012   .0039394    -1.53   0.127    -.0137331    .0017092
                    1980  |  -.0044848   .0037853    -1.18   0.236    -.0119038    .0029342
                    1981  |  -.0043151   .0039291    -1.10   0.272     -.012016    .0033859
                    1982  |  -.0048015   .0035525    -1.35   0.177    -.0117644    .0021613
                    1983  |  -.0064328   .0038604    -1.67   0.096     -.013999    .0011334
                    1984  |  -.0034392   .0049831    -0.69   0.490    -.0132059    .0063275
                    1985  |  -.0067622   .0041528    -1.63   0.103    -.0149016    .0013771
                    1986  |  -.0072154   .0036941    -1.95   0.051    -.0144557    .0000249
                    1987  |   -.006542   .0037542    -1.74   0.081    -.0139001    .0008162
                    1988  |  -.0078197    .004039    -1.94   0.053     -.015736    .0000967
                    1989  |  -.0065497   .0035629    -1.84   0.066    -.0135328    .0004335
                    1990  |   -.006599   .0035122    -1.88   0.060    -.0134828    .0002848
                    1991  |  -.0071789    .003799    -1.89   0.059    -.0146249    .0002671
                    1992  |  -.0066156    .003877    -1.71   0.088    -.0142144    .0009831
                    1993  |  -.0081575   .0041726    -1.96   0.051    -.0163357    .0000206
                    1994  |  -.0066158   .0037744    -1.75   0.080    -.0140135     .000782
                    1995  |  -.0060318   .0037723    -1.60   0.110    -.0134254    .0013617
                    1996  |  -.0064503   .0038418    -1.68   0.093    -.0139802    .0010795
                    1997  |  -.0067748   .0037244    -1.82   0.069    -.0140744    .0005249
                    1998  |  -.0060427   .0037552    -1.61   0.108    -.0134027    .0013173
                    1999  |  -.0062958   .0036492    -1.73   0.084    -.0134481    .0008565
                    2000  |  -.0068396   .0036761    -1.86   0.063    -.0140446    .0003654
                    2001  |  -.0054064   .0036279    -1.49   0.136    -.0125169    .0017041
                    2002  |  -.0061815   .0036097    -1.71   0.087    -.0132564    .0008934
                    2003  |  -.0068735   .0038508    -1.78   0.074     -.014421    .0006739
                    2004  |  -.0055462   .0036931    -1.50   0.133    -.0127846    .0016923
                    2005  |  -.0059991   .0036555    -1.64   0.101    -.0131637    .0011655
                    2006  |  -.0052725   .0036768    -1.43   0.152    -.0124789    .0019338
                    2007  |  -.0035488   .0040093    -0.89   0.376    -.0114069    .0043092
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   .0003131    .000471     0.66   0.506      -.00061    .0012361
                       4  |   -.000108   .0004107    -0.26   0.793     -.000913    .0006969
                       5  |   .0003257   .0005126     0.64   0.525     -.000679    .0013304
                          |
                    _cons |   .0084299    .004018     2.10   0.036     .0005548    .0163051
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  .00695541
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model2

. * Country FE
. xtreg defspend_rgdp L.defspend_rgdp visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realg
> dp growth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.ccode, robust cluster(ccode)
note: 740.ccode omitted because of collinearity
note: 920.ccode omitted because of collinearity

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,875
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.8430                                         min =          3
     between = 1.0000                                         avg =       36.8
     overall = 0.9419                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(10)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
            defspend_rgdp |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            defspend_rgdp |
                      L1. |   .8833874   .0069399   127.29   0.000     .8697855    .8969893
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -.0012071   .0003458    -3.49   0.000    -.0018848   -.0005294
  visit_lastyear_official |   .0001305   .0008651     0.15   0.880    -.0015651    .0018261
                     demo |  -.0015818   .0004757    -3.33   0.001    -.0025142   -.0006494
                  ln_cinc |   .0038573   .0010045     3.84   0.000     .0018884    .0058262
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .0006621   .0005431     1.22   0.223    -.0004023    .0017265
                          |
                  realgdp |  -1.48e-09   5.68e-10    -2.61   0.009    -2.59e-09   -3.67e-10
                   growth |  -.0301334   .0156842    -1.92   0.055    -.0608739    .0006071
               landcontig |  -.0104763   .0028051    -3.73   0.000    -.0159742   -.0049784
                     viol |  -.0149867   .0039603    -3.78   0.000    -.0227487   -.0072247
                  rivalry |  -.0004316   .0009382    -0.46   0.645    -.0022705    .0014072
                 l_postcw |   -.001536   .0004491    -3.42   0.001    -.0024163   -.0006558
                          |
                    ccode |
                      41  |   .0105216   .0039307     2.68   0.007     .0028176    .0182256
                      42  |   .0107919   .0038197     2.83   0.005     .0033055    .0182783
                      51  |   .0020004    .001143     1.75   0.080    -.0002398    .0042407
                      52  |  -.0027043   .0004419    -6.12   0.000    -.0035704   -.0018381
                      70  |   .0114522   .0039631     2.89   0.004     .0036847    .0192197
                      90  |   .0118252   .0038763     3.05   0.002     .0042277    .0194227
                      91  |   .0145934   .0045862     3.18   0.001     .0056046    .0235822
                      92  |   .0268564   .0044102     6.09   0.000     .0182125    .0355002
                      93  |   .0132708   .0044621     2.97   0.003     .0045251    .0220164
                      95  |   .0155671   .0048024     3.24   0.001     .0061546    .0249796
                     100  |   .0062897    .002329     2.70   0.007     .0017248    .0108545
                     101  |  -.0115092   .0022469    -5.12   0.000    -.0159129   -.0071054
                     110  |   .0089773   .0026547     3.38   0.001     .0037742    .0141803
                     130  |  -.0033111   .0009248    -3.58   0.000    -.0051236   -.0014985
                     135  |   .0110925   .0027513     4.03   0.000     .0057001    .0164849
                     140  |  -.0148489   .0034239    -4.34   0.000    -.0215597   -.0081381
                     145  |   .0125001   .0037849     3.30   0.001      .005082    .0199183
                     150  |   .0143069   .0044207     3.24   0.001     .0056425    .0229713
                     155  |   .0079987   .0025908     3.09   0.002     .0029207    .0130766
                     160  |   .0062219   .0019782     3.15   0.002     .0023448    .0100991
                     165  |   .0152518   .0040105     3.80   0.000     .0073914    .0231122
                     200  |   .0045444   .0011528     3.94   0.000     .0022848    .0068039
                     210  |   .0073905   .0019018     3.89   0.000     .0036629     .011118
                     211  |    .007123   .0019256     3.70   0.000     .0033488    .0108972
                     220  |   .0058973   .0011719     5.03   0.000     .0036004    .0081942
                     230  |   .0048673   .0014616     3.33   0.001     .0020027    .0077319
                     235  |  -.0035748   .0011186    -3.20   0.001    -.0057672   -.0013825
                     260  |   .0029773   .0007487     3.98   0.000     .0015097    .0044448
                     290  |   .0056837   .0018599     3.06   0.002     .0020383    .0093291
                     310  |   .0102395   .0031666     3.23   0.001      .004033    .0164459
                     316  |  -.0065591   .0013455    -4.87   0.000    -.0091962    -.003922
                     317  |  -.0026597    .000868    -3.06   0.002     -.004361   -.0009584
                     325  |  -.0116276   .0031885    -3.65   0.000    -.0178769   -.0053783
                     349  |   .0166357   .0046539     3.57   0.000     .0075142    .0257573
                     350  |   .0108184   .0026853     4.03   0.000     .0055554    .0160815
                     355  |   .0113084   .0034537     3.27   0.001     .0045393    .0180776
                     360  |    .009539   .0035057     2.72   0.007      .002668      .01641
                     366  |   .0064903   .0020943     3.10   0.002     .0023856    .0105951
                     367  |   .0039415   .0012145     3.25   0.001     .0015612    .0063219
                     368  |   .0007293   .0008952     0.81   0.415    -.0010253    .0024839
                     385  |  -.0034271   .0008894    -3.85   0.000    -.0051702    -.001684
                     390  |  -.0024007   .0008658    -2.77   0.006    -.0040976   -.0007038
                     640  |   .0035141   .0015408     2.28   0.023     .0004942     .006534
                     713  |   .0105336    .002167     4.86   0.000     .0062863    .0147809
                     732  |   .0050591   .0016178     3.13   0.002     .0018882      .00823
                     740  |          0  (omitted)
                     770  |  -.0137224   .0029451    -4.66   0.000    -.0194948     -.00795
                     840  |   -.010416    .002037    -5.11   0.000    -.0144084   -.0064235
                     900  |  -.0089647   .0023623    -3.79   0.000    -.0135947   -.0043347
                     920  |          0  (omitted)
                          |
                    _cons |   .0352711   .0080095     4.40   0.000     .0195728    .0509693
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  .00703598
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model3

. * Additional controls
. xtreg defspend_rgdp L.defspend_rgdp visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realg
> dp growth landcontig viol rivalry nukes_us_b affinity_us l_postcw i.region, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,875
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.8410                                         min =          3
     between = 0.9978                                         avg =       36.8
     overall = 0.9390                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(16)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
            defspend_rgdp |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            defspend_rgdp |
                      L1. |   .9624826   .0076251   126.23   0.000     .9475378    .9774275
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -.0009175   .0003149    -2.91   0.004    -.0015347   -.0003002
  visit_lastyear_official |   .0002816    .000835     0.34   0.736    -.0013551    .0019182
                     demo |  -.0009399   .0004221    -2.23   0.026    -.0017671   -.0001127
                  ln_cinc |   .0001554   .0000943     1.65   0.099    -.0000294    .0003401
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .0005031   .0004898     1.03   0.304    -.0004568     .001463
                          |
                  realgdp |  -5.55e-10   2.13e-10    -2.60   0.009    -9.73e-10   -1.37e-10
                   growth |   -.029857   .0152703    -1.96   0.051    -.0597863    .0000722
               landcontig |  -.0002386   .0006792    -0.35   0.725    -.0015699    .0010926
                     viol |    .000486   .0003428     1.42   0.156    -.0001859    .0011578
                  rivalry |  -.0004163   .0005099    -0.82   0.414    -.0014157    .0005832
               nukes_us_b |  -.0001737   .0003635    -0.48   0.633    -.0008861    .0005387
            affinity_us_b |   .0005157   .0004752     1.09   0.278    -.0004157     .001447
                 l_postcw |  -.0003667   .0002396    -1.53   0.126    -.0008362    .0001028
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   .0005679   .0003032     1.87   0.061    -.0000265    .0011622
                       4  |    -.00007   .0005186    -0.14   0.893    -.0010865    .0009464
                       5  |   .0003728   .0004891     0.76   0.446    -.0005858    .0013313
                          |
                    _cons |   .0036105   .0012914     2.80   0.005     .0010793    .0061416
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  .00703921
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model4

. **Model 5-8: Last years in second term only
. xtreg defspend_rgdp L.defspend_rgdp visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realg
> dp growth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.region, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,875
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.8412                                         min =          3
     between = 0.9978                                         avg =       36.8
     overall = 0.9390                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(14)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
            defspend_rgdp |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            defspend_rgdp |
                      L1. |   .9627592   .0073814   130.43   0.000      .948292    .9772264
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |  -.0009146   .0002896    -3.16   0.002    -.0014823   -.0003469
  visit_lameduck_official |   .0012584    .001591     0.79   0.429    -.0018599    .0043766
                     demo |  -.0009646   .0004139    -2.33   0.020    -.0017758   -.0001534
                  ln_cinc |   .0001439   .0000851     1.69   0.091     -.000023    .0003107
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .0005033   .0004902     1.03   0.304    -.0004574     .001464
                          |
                  realgdp |  -5.12e-10   2.16e-10    -2.36   0.018    -9.36e-10   -8.76e-11
                   growth |   -.029533   .0154251    -1.91   0.056    -.0597657    .0006997
               landcontig |  -.0001541   .0007572    -0.20   0.839    -.0016383      .00133
                     viol |   .0004641   .0003538     1.31   0.190    -.0002294    .0011575
                  rivalry |  -.0004188   .0005168    -0.81   0.418    -.0014317     .000594
                 l_postcw |  -.0005583   .0002048    -2.73   0.006    -.0009597    -.000157
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   .0006887   .0003516     1.96   0.050    -3.80e-07    .0013777
                       4  |  -.0000786   .0004004    -0.20   0.844    -.0008633    .0007061
                       5  |   .0004208   .0004629     0.91   0.363    -.0004865    .0013282
                          |
                    _cons |   .0035721   .0012607     2.83   0.005     .0011012    .0060431
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |   .0070339
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model5

. * Year FE
. xtreg defspend_rgdp L.defspend_rgdp visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realg
> dp growth landcontig viol rivalry i.year i.region, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,875
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.8494                                         min =          3
     between = 0.9985                                         avg =       36.8
     overall = 0.9421                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(50)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
            defspend_rgdp |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            defspend_rgdp |
                      L1. |   .9635436   .0084546   113.97   0.000     .9469729    .9801142
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |  -.0006807   .0002668    -2.55   0.011    -.0012036   -.0001579
  visit_lameduck_official |   .0015111   .0015169     1.00   0.319     -.001462    .0044842
                     demo |  -.0005215   .0003273    -1.59   0.111     -.001163      .00012
                  ln_cinc |    .000097   .0000837     1.16   0.246     -.000067     .000261
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .0005639    .000482     1.17   0.242    -.0003808    .0015087
                          |
                  realgdp |  -3.37e-10   2.27e-10    -1.49   0.137    -7.82e-10    1.07e-10
                   growth |  -.0292054   .0158292    -1.85   0.065      -.06023    .0018192
               landcontig |  -.0004269   .0006421    -0.66   0.506    -.0016855    .0008316
                     viol |   .0005257   .0003641     1.44   0.149    -.0001878    .0012393
                  rivalry |  -.0004402   .0005037    -0.87   0.382    -.0014273     .000547
                          |
                     year |
                    1952  |   .0036854   .0029451     1.25   0.211     -.002087    .0094577
                    1953  |  -.0022187    .004204    -0.53   0.598    -.0104585     .006021
                    1954  |  -.0066221   .0043665    -1.52   0.129    -.0151803     .001936
                    1955  |  -.0076575   .0041619    -1.84   0.066    -.0158147    .0004997
                    1956  |  -.0049262   .0034324    -1.44   0.151    -.0116535    .0018012
                    1957  |  -.0040136   .0050825    -0.79   0.430    -.0139751    .0059479
                    1958  |  -.0094319    .002984    -3.16   0.002    -.0152805   -.0035833
                    1959  |  -.0075038   .0034137    -2.20   0.028    -.0141944   -.0008131
                    1960  |  -.0053719   .0041023    -1.31   0.190    -.0134123    .0026686
                    1961  |  -.0051109   .0039098    -1.31   0.191    -.0127739    .0025521
                    1962  |  -.0037952   .0036879    -1.03   0.303    -.0110234    .0034329
                    1963  |   -.005467   .0038762    -1.41   0.158    -.0130641    .0021301
                    1964  |  -.0056918   .0035628    -1.60   0.110    -.0126748    .0012911
                    1965  |  -.0055824    .003683    -1.52   0.130    -.0128009    .0016361
                    1966  |  -.0050371   .0037283    -1.35   0.177    -.0123446    .0022703
                    1967  |   -.003177   .0040333    -0.79   0.431    -.0110821    .0047282
                    1968  |  -.0070659   .0041782    -1.69   0.091     -.015255    .0011233
                    1969  |  -.0056836   .0039218    -1.45   0.147    -.0133702    .0020031
                    1970  |  -.0039667   .0037364    -1.06   0.288    -.0112899    .0033564
                    1971  |  -.0052464   .0037314    -1.41   0.160    -.0125599     .002067
                    1972  |  -.0041972   .0037072    -1.13   0.258    -.0114631    .0030687
                    1973  |  -.0053539   .0037389    -1.43   0.152     -.012682    .0019742
                    1974  |  -.0045578   .0040027    -1.14   0.255    -.0124029    .0032872
                    1975  |   -.003983   .0040462    -0.98   0.325    -.0119134    .0039475
                    1976  |  -.0036921   .0047509    -0.78   0.437    -.0130037    .0056194
                    1977  |  -.0026537   .0040824    -0.65   0.516     -.010655    .0053476
                    1978  |  -.0062512   .0039873    -1.57   0.117    -.0140661    .0015637
                    1979  |  -.0060214   .0039376    -1.53   0.126     -.013739    .0016961
                    1980  |  -.0044945   .0037848    -1.19   0.235    -.0119126    .0029236
                    1981  |  -.0042348   .0039462    -1.07   0.283    -.0119692    .0034997
                    1982  |   -.004815   .0035494    -1.36   0.175    -.0117716    .0021416
                    1983  |  -.0064488   .0038591    -1.67   0.095    -.0140125    .0011148
                    1984  |  -.0034552   .0049778    -0.69   0.488    -.0132115    .0063011
                    1985  |  -.0067185   .0041432    -1.62   0.105    -.0148391    .0014021
                    1986  |  -.0072321   .0036911    -1.96   0.050    -.0144664    2.24e-06
                    1987  |  -.0065599   .0037489    -1.75   0.080    -.0139077    .0007878
                    1988  |  -.0078398    .004034    -1.94   0.052    -.0157462    .0000667
                    1989  |  -.0067188   .0035408    -1.90   0.058    -.0136585     .000221
                    1990  |  -.0066221   .0035078    -1.89   0.059    -.0134974    .0002531
                    1991  |   -.007202   .0037967    -1.90   0.058    -.0146433    .0002394
                    1992  |  -.0066389   .0038748    -1.71   0.087    -.0142333    .0009554
                    1993  |  -.0080926   .0041792    -1.94   0.053    -.0162838    .0000985
                    1994  |  -.0066413   .0037686    -1.76   0.078    -.0140275    .0007449
                    1995  |  -.0060571   .0037668    -1.61   0.108      -.01344    .0013257
                    1996  |  -.0064779   .0038351    -1.69   0.091    -.0139947    .0010388
                    1997  |  -.0067092   .0037348    -1.80   0.072    -.0140292    .0006109
                    1998  |  -.0060724   .0037508    -1.62   0.105    -.0134238    .0012791
                    1999  |  -.0063242   .0036424    -1.74   0.083    -.0134632    .0008147
                    2000  |  -.0068676   .0036715    -1.87   0.061    -.0140636    .0003284
                    2001  |   -.005644   .0035639    -1.58   0.113    -.0126292    .0013411
                    2002  |  -.0062116   .0036023    -1.72   0.085     -.013272    .0008488
                    2003  |   -.006903   .0038463    -1.79   0.073    -.0144415    .0006355
                    2004  |  -.0055754   .0036866    -1.51   0.130    -.0128011    .0016502
                    2005  |  -.0059102   .0036494    -1.62   0.105    -.0130628    .0012425
                    2006  |  -.0053007   .0036708    -1.44   0.149    -.0124954    .0018939
                    2007  |  -.0035768   .0040025    -0.89   0.372    -.0114215    .0042679
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   .0003023   .0004684     0.65   0.519    -.0006157    .0012202
                       4  |  -.0000948   .0004146    -0.23   0.819    -.0009074    .0007179
                       5  |   .0003329   .0005175     0.64   0.520    -.0006813    .0013471
                          |
                    _cons |   .0083851   .0040305     2.08   0.037     .0004856    .0162847
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  .00695259
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model6

. * Country FE
. xtreg defspend_rgdp L.defspend_rgdp visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realg
> dp growth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.ccode, robust cluster(ccode)
note: 740.ccode omitted because of collinearity
note: 920.ccode omitted because of collinearity

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,875
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.8431                                         min =          3
     between = 1.0000                                         avg =       36.8
     overall = 0.9419                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(10)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
            defspend_rgdp |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            defspend_rgdp |
                      L1. |   .8833381    .006887   128.26   0.000     .8698399    .8968364
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |  -.0011863   .0003236    -3.67   0.000    -.0018206   -.0005521
  visit_lameduck_official |   .0013524   .0015942     0.85   0.396    -.0017723     .004477
                     demo |   -.001561    .000472    -3.31   0.001    -.0024861   -.0006359
                  ln_cinc |   .0038844   .0010041     3.87   0.000     .0019164    .0058524
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .0006638   .0005438     1.22   0.222    -.0004021    .0017296
                          |
                  realgdp |  -1.45e-09   5.57e-10    -2.60   0.009    -2.54e-09   -3.58e-10
                   growth |  -.0300866    .015692    -1.92   0.055    -.0608423    .0006691
               landcontig |  -.0105277   .0027994    -3.76   0.000    -.0160144   -.0050411
                     viol |  -.0151132   .0039657    -3.81   0.000    -.0228859   -.0073405
                  rivalry |  -.0004401   .0009388    -0.47   0.639    -.0022801       .0014
                 l_postcw |  -.0015457   .0004482    -3.45   0.001    -.0024243   -.0006672
                          |
                    ccode |
                      41  |   .0106864    .003931     2.72   0.007     .0029817    .0183911
                      42  |   .0109323   .0038218     2.86   0.004     .0034418    .0184229
                      51  |   .0020413   .0011444     1.78   0.074    -.0002017    .0042844
                      52  |  -.0026846   .0004367    -6.15   0.000    -.0035405   -.0018287
                      70  |   .0115057    .003941     2.92   0.004     .0037816    .0192298
                      90  |   .0119996   .0038817     3.09   0.002     .0043915    .0196076
                      91  |    .014791   .0045921     3.22   0.001     .0057906    .0237913
                      92  |   .0270103   .0044114     6.12   0.000     .0183642    .0356565
                      93  |   .0134297   .0044637     3.01   0.003      .004681    .0221784
                      95  |   .0158274   .0048461     3.27   0.001     .0063293    .0253254
                     100  |   .0063707   .0023322     2.73   0.006     .0017996    .0109418
                     101  |  -.0115607   .0022496    -5.14   0.000    -.0159698   -.0071516
                     110  |   .0090656   .0026514     3.42   0.001      .003869    .0142621
                     130  |  -.0033085   .0009221    -3.59   0.000    -.0051158   -.0015012
                     135  |      .0112   .0027478     4.08   0.000     .0058144    .0165855
                     140  |  -.0149752   .0034411    -4.35   0.000    -.0217196   -.0082309
                     145  |   .0126418   .0037849     3.34   0.001     .0052236      .02006
                     150  |   .0144633   .0044237     3.27   0.001     .0057929    .0231336
                     155  |   .0080774   .0025861     3.12   0.002     .0030087    .0131461
                     160  |   .0062778    .001971     3.19   0.001     .0024146    .0101409
                     165  |   .0153934   .0040152     3.83   0.000     .0075237    .0232631
                     200  |   .0045249   .0011511     3.93   0.000     .0022687    .0067811
                     210  |   .0074504   .0019011     3.92   0.000     .0037243    .0111766
                     211  |   .0071639   .0019172     3.74   0.000     .0034063    .0109214
                     220  |   .0059292   .0011681     5.08   0.000     .0036398    .0082186
                     230  |   .0049007   .0014566     3.36   0.001     .0020458    .0077555
                     235  |  -.0036169   .0011319    -3.20   0.001    -.0058354   -.0013983
                     260  |   .0030061   .0007479     4.02   0.000     .0015402     .004472
                     290  |   .0057345   .0018564     3.09   0.002      .002096    .0093729
                     310  |   .0103433    .003169     3.26   0.001     .0041321    .0165544
                     316  |   -.006595    .001345    -4.90   0.000    -.0092312   -.0039588
                     317  |  -.0026827   .0008681    -3.09   0.002    -.0043842   -.0009813
                     325  |  -.0116995   .0031851    -3.67   0.000    -.0179423   -.0054568
                     349  |    .016788   .0046613     3.60   0.000     .0076521    .0259239
                     350  |   .0109166   .0026809     4.07   0.000     .0056621    .0161712
                     355  |   .0114177   .0034582     3.30   0.001     .0046396    .0181957
                     360  |    .009618   .0035055     2.74   0.006     .0027474    .0164886
                     366  |   .0065249   .0020871     3.13   0.002     .0024343    .0106155
                     367  |   .0039582    .001208     3.28   0.001     .0015906    .0063258
                     368  |   .0007448   .0008939     0.83   0.405    -.0010073    .0024969
                     385  |  -.0034521   .0008894    -3.88   0.000    -.0051952   -.0017089
                     390  |  -.0024243    .000866    -2.80   0.005    -.0041218   -.0007269
                     640  |   .0035907   .0015404     2.33   0.020     .0005715    .0066099
                     713  |   .0106197   .0021556     4.93   0.000     .0063949    .0148445
                     732  |   .0051365    .001612     3.19   0.001     .0019771     .008296
                     740  |          0  (omitted)
                     770  |  -.0138167   .0029535    -4.68   0.000    -.0196055   -.0080278
                     840  |  -.0104592   .0020349    -5.14   0.000    -.0144475    -.006471
                     900  |  -.0090158   .0023576    -3.82   0.000    -.0136366    -.004395
                     920  |          0  (omitted)
                          |
                    _cons |   .0354492   .0080083     4.43   0.000     .0197532    .0511452
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |   .0070339
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model7

. * Additional controls
. xtreg defspend_rgdp L.defspend_rgdp visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realg
> dp growth landcontig viol rivalry nukes_us_b affinity_us l_postcw i.region, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,875
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.8411                                         min =          3
     between = 0.9978                                         avg =       36.8
     overall = 0.9390                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(16)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
            defspend_rgdp |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            defspend_rgdp |
                      L1. |   .9625404   .0075929   126.77   0.000     .9476587    .9774222
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |  -.0009018   .0002926    -3.08   0.002    -.0014752   -.0003283
  visit_lameduck_official |   .0012778   .0015833     0.81   0.420    -.0018254     .004381
                     demo |  -.0009152   .0004216    -2.17   0.030    -.0017415   -.0000888
                  ln_cinc |   .0001485    .000094     1.58   0.114    -.0000358    .0003328
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .0005057   .0004904     1.03   0.302    -.0004554    .0014668
                          |
                  realgdp |  -5.30e-10   2.14e-10    -2.47   0.013    -9.50e-10   -1.10e-10
                   growth |  -.0298053   .0152839    -1.95   0.051    -.0597611    .0001506
               landcontig |  -.0002444   .0006896    -0.35   0.723     -.001596    .0011071
                     viol |   .0004859   .0003435     1.41   0.157    -.0001872    .0011591
                  rivalry |  -.0004152     .00051    -0.81   0.415    -.0014147    .0005843
               nukes_us_b |  -.0001646    .000363    -0.45   0.650    -.0008761    .0005468
            affinity_us_b |   .0005309    .000475     1.12   0.264       -.0004    .0014619
                 l_postcw |   -.000365   .0002395    -1.52   0.128    -.0008343    .0001044
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |     .00055   .0003022     1.82   0.069    -.0000423    .0011424
                       4  |  -.0000623   .0005218    -0.12   0.905     -.001085    .0009604
                       5  |   .0003787   .0004935     0.77   0.443    -.0005886    .0013459
                          |
                    _cons |   .0035452   .0012968     2.73   0.006     .0010035    .0060869
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  .00703714
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model8

. 
. esttab using table2.tex, replace label se nodepvars booktabs alignment(l) width(0.8\hsize) ///
> b(3)  addn(Robust standard errors are clustered by countries and in parentheses.) /// 
> star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** .01 *** .001) stats(N r2, label("N Obs." "Overall $R^2$")) nogaps scalars("N Obs." "R squared
> " ) ///
> title(Alternate dependent variable: The level of defense spending per GDP\label{reg2})
(output written to table2.tex)

. 
. 
. ***Table 2: Including stopovers, vacations, multilateral conference attendances
. **Model 1-4: Last years both terms
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear visit_lastyear demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp growth landcontig v
> iol rivalry l_postcw i.region if official ==1, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,777
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1310                                         min =          1
     between = 0.7164                                         avg =       34.8
     overall = 0.1868                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(15)     =   31784.06
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                     (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
     defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     defspend_ch |
             L1. |   .3154889    .054003     5.84   0.000      .209645    .4213327
                 |
visit_nolastyear |  -.8915673   .3366232    -2.65   0.008    -1.551337    -.231798
  visit_lastyear |   .9407827   1.486548     0.63   0.527    -1.972799    3.854364
            demo |  -.0553223    .256746    -0.22   0.829    -.5585351    .4478906
         ln_cinc |   -.050383   .0836121    -0.60   0.547    -.2142598    .1134938
                 |
        midcount |
             L1. |   .5441671   .2585525     2.10   0.035     .0374136    1.050921
                 |
         realgdp |  -2.38e-07   3.13e-07    -0.76   0.447    -8.51e-07    3.76e-07
          growth |   3.312771   1.676502     1.98   0.048     .0268886    6.598654
      landcontig |   .6928375   .2575089     2.69   0.007     .1881294    1.197546
            viol |  -.2582921   .1289881    -2.00   0.045    -.5111041   -.0054801
         rivalry |   .0263512    .176838     0.15   0.882    -.3202449    .3729472
        l_postcw |  -.5257961   .2619577    -2.01   0.045    -1.039224   -.0123684
                 |
          region |
              2  |   1.785453   .3176937     5.62   0.000     1.162785    2.408122
              4  |   2.918079   .3216943     9.07   0.000      2.28757    3.548588
              5  |    .046863   .1629288     0.29   0.774    -.2724716    .3661977
                 |
           _cons |  -.0761657   .5758625    -0.13   0.895    -1.204836    1.052504
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |          0
         sigma_e |  4.9654041
             rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model1

. * Year FE
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear visit_lastyear demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp growth landcontig v
> iol rivalry i.year i.region if official ==1, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,777
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.2640                                         min =          1
     between = 0.6750                                         avg =       34.8
     overall = 0.3094                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(50)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                     (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
     defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     defspend_ch |
             L1. |   .2505287   .0528359     4.74   0.000     .1469721    .3540852
                 |
visit_nolastyear |  -.8839994   .3690591    -2.40   0.017    -1.607342   -.1606569
  visit_lastyear |   .9786009   1.287604     0.76   0.447    -1.545056    3.502258
            demo |   .1024286   .2386384     0.43   0.668    -.3652941    .5701512
         ln_cinc |  -.1527792   .0744409    -2.05   0.040    -.2986806   -.0068778
                 |
        midcount |
             L1. |   .4596778   .2441248     1.88   0.060     -.018798    .9381536
                 |
         realgdp |   1.08e-07   1.86e-07     0.58   0.562    -2.57e-07    4.72e-07
          growth |   5.275391   2.039262     2.59   0.010     1.278511    9.272272
      landcontig |   .6760531   .3103333     2.18   0.029      .067811    1.284295
            viol |  -.2022041   .1418844    -1.43   0.154    -.4802925    .0758843
         rivalry |  -.0045375   .1621519    -0.03   0.978    -.3223493    .3132743
                 |
            year |
           1952  |  -7.164319    6.69322    -1.07   0.284    -20.28279     5.95415
           1953  |  -18.96678   7.653307    -2.48   0.013    -33.96699   -3.966577
           1954  |   -21.5149   8.073205    -2.66   0.008    -37.33809   -5.691712
           1955  |  -23.20133   8.094446    -2.87   0.004    -39.06615   -7.336507
           1956  |  -18.01513   7.034727    -2.56   0.010    -31.80294   -4.227317
           1957  |  -21.03305   6.699235    -3.14   0.002    -34.16331   -7.902793
           1958  |  -22.65942   7.157963    -3.17   0.002    -36.68877    -8.63007
           1959  |  -19.58711   6.928748    -2.83   0.005     -33.1672   -6.007009
           1960  |  -19.17298   7.372466    -2.60   0.009    -33.62275   -4.723214
           1961  |  -17.99681   7.932026    -2.27   0.023     -33.5433   -2.450326
           1962  |  -18.69045   6.909139    -2.71   0.007    -32.23211   -5.148783
           1963  |  -20.84988   6.985619    -2.98   0.003    -34.54144   -7.158319
           1964  |   -19.3934   7.130199    -2.72   0.007    -33.36834    -5.41847
           1965  |  -20.33001   6.806186    -2.99   0.003    -33.66989   -6.990134
           1966  |  -20.22964     6.9995    -2.89   0.004    -33.94841   -6.510872
           1967  |  -17.87562   7.430937    -2.41   0.016    -32.43999   -3.311249
           1968  |  -19.89822   6.861617    -2.90   0.004    -33.34675   -6.449702
           1969  |   -21.5018   6.920506    -3.11   0.002    -35.06575   -7.937861
           1970  |  -19.09926   7.196803    -2.65   0.008    -33.20474   -4.993789
           1971  |   -19.1864   7.189193    -2.67   0.008    -33.27696   -5.095843
           1972  |  -20.03486   7.002088    -2.86   0.004     -33.7587   -6.311022
           1973  |  -21.05644   6.782114    -3.10   0.002    -34.34914   -7.763744
           1974  |  -18.33698   7.306241    -2.51   0.012    -32.65695   -4.017014
           1975  |  -18.08163   6.796839    -2.66   0.008    -31.40319   -4.760068
           1976  |  -21.86236   6.820936    -3.21   0.001    -35.23115   -8.493566
           1977  |  -20.06905   7.123011    -2.82   0.005     -34.0299   -6.108208
           1978  |  -20.33058   6.784594    -3.00   0.003    -33.62814   -7.033019
           1979  |  -20.51089   7.144594    -2.87   0.004    -34.51403   -6.507738
           1980  |  -20.22058    7.00209    -2.89   0.004    -33.94443   -6.496741
           1981  |   -19.7529   6.993615    -2.82   0.005    -33.46014   -6.045668
           1982  |  -19.37786   7.237483    -2.68   0.007    -33.56306   -5.192652
           1983  |  -20.73123   6.891374    -3.01   0.003    -34.23807   -7.224381
           1984  |  -20.76586    7.14679    -2.91   0.004    -34.77331   -6.758405
           1985  |  -20.13953   6.817223    -2.95   0.003    -33.50104   -6.778018
           1986  |  -20.64863   7.345541    -2.81   0.005    -35.04563   -6.251635
           1987  |  -20.05126   7.022575    -2.86   0.004    -33.81525   -6.287264
           1988  |  -20.99341   7.344281    -2.86   0.004    -35.38794   -6.598888
           1989  |  -20.25542   6.969261    -2.91   0.004    -33.91492   -6.595916
           1990  |  -20.24278   6.997337    -2.89   0.004     -33.9573   -6.528247
           1991  |  -21.03795   7.128089    -2.95   0.003    -35.00874   -7.067148
           1992  |  -20.81891   7.336131    -2.84   0.005    -35.19746   -6.440357
           1993  |  -21.50004   6.956714    -3.09   0.002    -35.13495   -7.865133
           1994  |  -20.97927   6.859581    -3.06   0.002     -34.4238   -7.534739
           1995  |  -21.38169   7.229447    -2.96   0.003    -35.55115   -7.212237
           1996  |  -19.98487   7.080302    -2.82   0.005      -33.862   -6.107729
           1997  |  -20.96252   7.061843    -2.97   0.003    -34.80347   -7.121557
           1998  |  -19.91459   6.989767    -2.85   0.004    -33.61428   -6.214901
           1999  |  -19.51926   7.221438    -2.70   0.007    -33.67302   -5.365501
           2000  |  -20.94965   7.054801    -2.97   0.003    -34.77681   -7.122497
           2001  |  -20.66784   7.135774    -2.90   0.004     -34.6537   -6.681981
           2002  |  -19.48362   6.816877    -2.86   0.004    -32.84446   -6.122791
           2003  |  -21.01552   7.110393    -2.96   0.003    -34.95163   -7.079404
           2004  |  -20.49595   7.178731    -2.86   0.004    -34.56601   -6.425901
           2005  |  -20.93911   7.141998    -2.93   0.003    -34.93717   -6.941046
           2006  |  -20.59161   7.037661    -2.93   0.003    -34.38518    -6.79805
           2007  |  -20.28987   6.837487    -2.97   0.003     -33.6911   -6.888639
                 |
          region |
              2  |   1.534003   .3472021     4.42   0.000     .8534992    2.214507
              4  |   3.399377   .3235951    10.51   0.000     2.765142    4.033612
              5  |   .0317401   .1928857     0.16   0.869     -.346309    .4097892
                 |
           _cons |   19.08334   7.055607     2.70   0.007     5.254605    32.91208
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |          0
         sigma_e |  4.6412789
             rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model2

. * Country FE
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear visit_lastyear demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp growth landcontig v
> iol rivalry l_postcw i.ccode if official ==1, robust cluster(ccode)
note: 740.ccode omitted because of collinearity
note: 920.ccode omitted because of collinearity

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,777
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1326                                         min =          1
     between = 1.0000                                         avg =       34.8
     overall = 0.1945                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(10)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                     (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
     defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     defspend_ch |
             L1. |    .305933   .0553923     5.52   0.000     .1973662    .4144999
                 |
visit_nolastyear |  -.8649419   .3651543    -2.37   0.018    -1.580631   -.1492527
  visit_lastyear |   .9507968   1.539163     0.62   0.537    -2.065908    3.967501
            demo |  -.2501609   .3943623    -0.63   0.526    -1.023097    .5227751
         ln_cinc |   1.046144   .8447768     1.24   0.216    -.6095881    2.701876
                 |
        midcount |
             L1. |   .5078949   .2764724     1.84   0.066     -.033981    1.049771
                 |
         realgdp |  -2.76e-07   3.74e-07    -0.74   0.460    -1.01e-06    4.57e-07
          growth |   3.289866   1.828661     1.80   0.072    -.2942433    6.873975
      landcontig |  -1.970038   2.512759    -0.78   0.433    -6.894956     2.95488
            viol |  -3.985583   3.637122    -1.10   0.273    -11.11421    3.143045
         rivalry |  -.1811913   .4277042    -0.42   0.672    -1.019476    .6570935
        l_postcw |  -.6596306   .2698109    -2.44   0.014     -1.18845    -.130811
                 |
           ccode |
             41  |   4.774321   3.825577     1.25   0.212    -2.723673    12.27231
             42  |   3.747604   3.403523     1.10   0.271    -2.923178    10.41839
             51  |   1.787757   1.114903     1.60   0.109    -.3974129    3.972927
             52  |   .2709647   .2723021     1.00   0.320    -.2627376    .8046669
             70  |   3.298453   3.623803     0.91   0.363    -3.804069    10.40098
             90  |   3.904103   3.458315     1.13   0.259    -2.874069    10.68227
             91  |    4.66675   4.081392     1.14   0.253    -3.332633    12.66613
             92  |   4.350654    3.77662     1.15   0.249    -3.051385    11.75269
             93  |   4.830597   4.069749     1.19   0.235    -3.145965    12.80716
             95  |   4.976067   4.157494     1.20   0.231    -3.172471    13.12461
            100  |   2.317893    2.05434     1.13   0.259     -1.70854    6.344326
            101  |  -1.884471   1.718346    -1.10   0.273    -5.252366    1.483425
            110  |   3.602446   2.279405     1.58   0.114    -.8651047    8.069997
            130  |  -.5044978   .6346838    -0.79   0.427    -1.748455    .7394596
            135  |   2.392658   2.334436     1.02   0.305    -2.182753    6.968069
            140  |  -3.446438   3.083637    -1.12   0.264    -9.490255    2.597379
            145  |   4.079302   3.406675     1.20   0.231    -2.597659    10.75626
            150  |   4.466258   3.927137     1.14   0.255    -3.230788     12.1633
            155  |   2.561807   2.337146     1.10   0.273    -2.018914    7.142529
            160  |   1.514166   1.697991     0.89   0.373    -1.813835    4.842167
            165  |    4.28463   3.686512     1.16   0.245      -2.9408    11.51006
            200  |   1.167047   .5805553     2.01   0.044     .0291793    2.304914
            210  |   2.947991   1.707599     1.73   0.084    -.3988418    6.294825
            211  |   3.158855   1.756361     1.80   0.072    -.2835493     6.60126
            220  |   2.303387   .6556998     3.51   0.000     1.018239    3.588535
            230  |   2.470606   1.302675     1.90   0.058    -.0825905    5.023802
            235  |    1.02506   1.118552     0.92   0.359    -1.167261    3.217382
            260  |   .1276467   .4418527     0.29   0.773    -.7383687    .9936621
            290  |   6.065013   1.682658     3.60   0.000     2.767065    9.362962
            310  |   5.007997   2.840362     1.76   0.078    -.5590104      10.575
            316  |  -1.489774   1.269605    -1.17   0.241    -3.978153    .9986058
            317  |   .1226272   .7327017     0.17   0.867    -1.313442    1.558696
            325  |   -1.30177   2.909289    -0.45   0.655    -7.003871    4.400332
            349  |    5.31943    4.16961     1.28   0.202    -2.852857    13.49172
            350  |   5.128507   2.226598     2.30   0.021     .7644561    9.492559
            355  |   3.649265   2.918272     1.25   0.211    -2.070444    9.368974
            360  |   2.635627   2.239452     1.18   0.239    -1.753619    7.024873
            366  |   2.467596   1.125413     2.19   0.028     .2618263    4.673365
            367  |   2.184946   .6923142     3.16   0.002     .8280349    3.541857
            368  |   .9645667   .3926784     2.46   0.014     .1949311    1.734202
            385  |   1.757245   .7870758     2.23   0.026     .2146051    3.299886
            390  |   1.142536   .7820552     1.46   0.144    -.3902637    2.675336
            640  |   4.109265   1.389157     2.96   0.003     1.386567    6.831962
            713  |   1.196806    1.44686     0.83   0.408    -1.638987    4.032598
            732  |   .7933799   1.030668     0.77   0.441    -1.226691    2.813451
            740  |          0  (omitted)
            770  |  -3.144554   2.534485    -1.24   0.215    -8.112052    1.822944
            840  |  -2.108012   1.822248    -1.16   0.247    -5.679553    1.463529
            900  |  -2.355773   2.086427    -1.13   0.259    -6.445095    1.733549
            920  |          0  (omitted)
                 |
           _cons |   7.945879   6.421952     1.24   0.216    -4.640915    20.53267
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |          0
         sigma_e |  4.9654041
             rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model3

. * Additional controls
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear visit_lastyear demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp growth landcontig v
> iol rivalry nukes_us_b affinity_us l_postcw i.region if official ==1, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,777
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1332                                         min =          1
     between = 0.7238                                         avg =       34.8
     overall = 0.1889                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(17)     =   38080.36
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                     (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
     defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     defspend_ch |
             L1. |   .3132756   .0537211     5.83   0.000     .2079841     .418567
                 |
visit_nolastyear |  -.8712374   .3455567    -2.52   0.012    -1.548516   -.1939588
  visit_lastyear |   .9291704   1.498896     0.62   0.535    -2.008613    3.866953
            demo |   .0024078   .2601362     0.01   0.993    -.5074498    .5122654
         ln_cinc |   -.034413   .0914928    -0.38   0.707    -.2137356    .1449096
                 |
        midcount |
             L1. |   .5406885   .2650899     2.04   0.041     .0211219    1.060255
                 |
         realgdp |  -2.69e-07   3.09e-07    -0.87   0.385    -8.74e-07    3.37e-07
          growth |   2.990327   1.651569     1.81   0.070    -.2466894    6.227343
      landcontig |   .5945573    .252403     2.36   0.018     .0998566    1.089258
            viol |  -.2150316   .1136571    -1.89   0.058    -.4377954    .0077321
         rivalry |   .0368036    .175576     0.21   0.834    -.3073191    .3809264
      nukes_us_b |  -.3721653   .4310226    -0.86   0.388    -1.216954    .4726234
   affinity_us_b |   .6773525   .3063804     2.21   0.027     .0768579    1.277847
        l_postcw |  -.2905046    .240903    -1.21   0.228    -.7626658    .1816565
                 |
          region |
              2  |   1.665659   .3149247     5.29   0.000     1.048417      2.2829
              4  |   3.083073   .4945195     6.23   0.000     2.113833    4.052314
              5  |   .0138014   .2042695     0.07   0.946    -.3865595    .4141624
                 |
           _cons |  -.0525755   .6162989    -0.09   0.932    -1.260499    1.155348
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |          0
         sigma_e |  4.9583882
             rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model4

. **Model 5-8: Last years in second term only
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck visit_lameduck demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp growth landcontig v
> iol rivalry l_postcw i.region if official ==1, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,777
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1368                                         min =          1
     between = 0.7106                                         avg =       34.8
     overall = 0.1919                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(15)     =   35223.37
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                     (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
     defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     defspend_ch |
             L1. |   .3154792   .0541173     5.83   0.000     .2094112    .4215472
                 |
visit_nolameduck |   -.940798   .3546656    -2.65   0.008     -1.63593   -.2456662
  visit_lameduck |   4.578338   4.286818     1.07   0.286    -3.823671    12.98035
            demo |   .0271772   .2544382     0.11   0.915    -.4715125    .5258669
         ln_cinc |  -.0741152   .0863053    -0.86   0.390    -.2432704      .09504
                 |
        midcount |
             L1. |   .5582411   .2626645     2.13   0.034     .0434281    1.073054
                 |
         realgdp |  -1.49e-07   3.09e-07    -0.48   0.630    -7.55e-07    4.57e-07
          growth |   3.449344   1.753327     1.97   0.049     .0128866    6.885802
      landcontig |   .6946894   .2817992     2.47   0.014     .1423732    1.247006
            viol |  -.2585029   .1298218    -1.99   0.046     -.512949   -.0040567
         rivalry |   .0085792   .1714443     0.05   0.960    -.3274455    .3446039
        l_postcw |  -.5517194   .2660444    -2.07   0.038    -1.073157   -.0302819
                 |
          region |
              2  |   1.773022   .3196307     5.55   0.000     1.146557    2.399487
              4  |   2.962366    .327646     9.04   0.000     2.320192    3.604541
              5  |    .054031   .1683496     0.32   0.748    -.2759282    .3839903
                 |
           _cons |  -.2846301   .6175723    -0.46   0.645     -1.49505    .9257893
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |          0
         sigma_e |  4.9483203
             rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model5

. * Year FE
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck visit_lameduck demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp growth landcontig v
> iol rivalry i.year i.region if official ==1, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,777
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.2679                                         min =          1
     between = 0.6703                                         avg =       34.8
     overall = 0.3126                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(50)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                     (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
     defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     defspend_ch |
             L1. |    .250235   .0529992     4.72   0.000     .1463585    .3541115
                 |
visit_nolameduck |  -.8613192   .3639642    -2.37   0.018    -1.574676   -.1479625
  visit_lameduck |   4.301196   4.013876     1.07   0.284    -3.565857    12.16825
            demo |   .1871221   .2407145     0.78   0.437    -.2846696    .6589138
         ln_cinc |  -.1725588   .0786987    -2.19   0.028    -.3268055   -.0183121
                 |
        midcount |
             L1. |    .476548   .2530134     1.88   0.060    -.0193492    .9724452
                 |
         realgdp |   1.77e-07   1.90e-07     0.93   0.353    -1.96e-07    5.50e-07
          growth |   5.298321   2.060548     2.57   0.010     1.259721    9.336921
      landcontig |    .665606   .3482779     1.91   0.056    -.0170062    1.348218
            viol |   -.200547   .1424266    -1.41   0.159     -.479698    .0786039
         rivalry |  -.0237982    .161815    -0.15   0.883    -.3409497    .2933533
                 |
            year |
           1952  |  -7.145844    6.68526    -1.07   0.285    -20.24871    5.957026
           1953  |  -18.95179   7.649276    -2.48   0.013    -33.94409   -3.959482
           1954  |  -21.50683   8.070726    -2.66   0.008    -37.32516   -5.688497
           1955  |  -23.18961    8.09347    -2.87   0.004    -39.05252   -7.326704
           1956  |  -18.00483   7.035898    -2.56   0.010    -31.79494   -4.214723
           1957  |  -21.01803   6.700103    -3.14   0.002    -34.14999   -7.886073
           1958  |  -22.64927    7.15569    -3.17   0.002    -36.67416    -8.62437
           1959  |  -19.58594   6.922959    -2.83   0.005    -33.15469   -6.017189
           1960  |  -19.17942   7.361978    -2.61   0.009    -33.60863   -4.750204
           1961  |  -18.90675   7.511554    -2.52   0.012    -33.62912   -4.184374
           1962  |  -18.68464   6.903838    -2.71   0.007    -32.21591   -5.153367
           1963  |  -20.84523   6.980291    -2.99   0.003    -34.52635   -7.164115
           1964  |  -19.39702    7.12169    -2.72   0.006    -33.35527   -5.438759
           1965  |  -20.27218   6.817916    -2.97   0.003    -33.63505   -6.909314
           1966  |  -20.22965   6.994102    -2.89   0.004    -33.93784   -6.521464
           1967  |  -17.88064   7.422945    -2.41   0.016    -32.42935   -3.331939
           1968  |  -19.90053   6.854076    -2.90   0.004    -33.33427   -6.466789
           1969  |  -21.38118   6.952101    -3.08   0.002    -35.00705   -7.755315
           1970  |  -19.10818   7.185292    -2.66   0.008    -33.19109   -5.025261
           1971  |  -19.18639   7.182725    -2.67   0.008    -33.26427   -5.108509
           1972  |  -20.03504   6.995958    -2.86   0.004    -33.74687   -6.323214
           1973  |  -21.00822    6.79066    -3.09   0.002    -34.31767   -7.698772
           1974  |  -18.34275   7.298117    -2.51   0.012     -32.6468   -4.038702
           1975  |  -18.09316   6.788408    -2.67   0.008     -31.3982   -4.788125
           1976  |  -21.70448   6.871782    -3.16   0.002    -35.17293   -8.236039
           1977  |  -20.07748    7.11371    -2.82   0.005     -34.0201   -6.134868
           1978  |   -20.3386   6.774599    -3.00   0.003    -33.61657   -7.060626
           1979  |  -20.52076   7.133397    -2.88   0.004    -34.50196   -6.539556
           1980  |  -20.23239   6.989257    -2.89   0.004    -33.93108   -6.533701
           1981  |  -19.61252   7.066088    -2.78   0.006     -33.4618   -5.763246
           1982  |   -19.3954   7.223983    -2.68   0.007    -33.55415   -5.236653
           1983  |  -20.76183   6.870085    -3.02   0.003    -34.22695   -7.296709
           1984  |  -20.79596    7.12971    -2.92   0.004    -34.76994   -6.821987
           1985  |    -20.068   6.820489    -2.94   0.003    -33.43591   -6.700085
           1986  |  -20.68561   7.323397    -2.82   0.005    -35.03921   -6.332019
           1987  |  -20.08723   7.003467    -2.87   0.004    -33.81378   -6.360691
           1988  |  -21.03572   7.322125    -2.87   0.004    -35.38682   -6.684618
           1989  |  -20.51084    6.88632    -2.98   0.003    -34.00777   -7.013898
           1990  |  -20.29238    6.97173    -2.91   0.004    -33.95672   -6.628036
           1991  |  -21.08972   7.101267    -2.97   0.003    -35.00795    -7.17149
           1992  |  -20.87131   7.311536    -2.85   0.004    -35.20166   -6.540968
           1993  |  -21.39634   6.980061    -3.07   0.002    -35.07701   -7.715668
           1994  |  -21.03375   6.834151    -3.08   0.002    -34.42844   -7.639062
           1995  |  -21.44194   7.201104    -2.98   0.003    -35.55585   -7.328039
           1996  |  -20.05101   7.052779    -2.84   0.004     -33.8742    -6.22782
           1997  |  -20.85017   7.091504    -2.94   0.003    -34.74926   -6.951081
           1998  |  -19.98553   6.957377    -2.87   0.004    -33.62174   -6.349324
           1999  |  -19.58583   7.189807    -2.72   0.006    -33.67759   -5.494062
           2000  |  -21.02149    7.02179    -2.99   0.003    -34.78395   -7.259037
           2001  |  -21.03169   7.017747    -3.00   0.003    -34.78622   -7.277157
           2002  |  -19.55523   6.784272    -2.88   0.004    -32.85216   -6.258306
           2003  |  -21.08674   7.077592    -2.98   0.003    -34.95856   -7.214911
           2004  |  -20.57037   7.144311    -2.88   0.004    -34.57296   -6.567779
           2005  |  -20.76294   7.191925    -2.89   0.004    -34.85886    -6.66703
           2006  |  -20.66564   7.005416    -2.95   0.003      -34.396   -6.935276
           2007  |  -20.36164   6.805337    -2.99   0.003    -33.69986   -7.023429
                 |
          region |
              2  |   1.518243   .3507907     4.33   0.000     .8307058     2.20578
              4  |    3.44007   .3272622    10.51   0.000     2.798648    4.081492
              5  |    .040376   .2029256     0.20   0.842    -.3573509    .4381029
                 |
           _cons |   18.92512   7.096638     2.67   0.008     5.015963    32.83427
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |          0
         sigma_e |  4.6284688
             rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model6

. * Country FE
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck visit_lameduck demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp growth landcontig v
> iol rivalry l_postcw i.ccode if official ==1, robust cluster(ccode)
note: 740.ccode omitted because of collinearity
note: 920.ccode omitted because of collinearity

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,777
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1385                                         min =          1
     between = 1.0000                                         avg =       34.8
     overall = 0.2000                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(10)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                     (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
     defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     defspend_ch |
             L1. |   .3053848   .0555064     5.50   0.000     .1965943    .4141753
                 |
visit_nolameduck |  -.9332022    .379424    -2.46   0.014     -1.67686   -.1895448
  visit_lameduck |   4.783435   4.394104     1.09   0.276    -3.828851    13.39572
            demo |  -.1707762   .3879089    -0.44   0.660    -.9310638    .5895113
         ln_cinc |   1.081612   .8431772     1.28   0.200     -.570985    2.734209
                 |
        midcount |
             L1. |   .5194619   .2786125     1.86   0.062    -.0266085    1.065532
                 |
         realgdp |  -1.67e-07   3.57e-07    -0.47   0.640    -8.66e-07    5.32e-07
          growth |   3.387451   1.873679     1.81   0.071    -.2848935    7.059795
      landcontig |  -1.990686   2.495402    -0.80   0.425    -6.881583    2.900211
            viol |  -4.214204    3.68159    -1.14   0.252    -11.42999    3.001579
         rivalry |  -.2172833   .4107434    -0.53   0.597    -1.022326    .5877588
        l_postcw |  -.6971193   .2779247    -2.51   0.012    -1.241842   -.1523968
                 |
           ccode |
             41  |   5.128363   3.896757     1.32   0.188    -2.509139    12.76587
             42  |   4.038868   3.469863     1.16   0.244    -2.761939    10.83968
             51  |   1.862605   1.122792     1.66   0.097    -.3380267    4.063236
             52  |   .3391645   .2806862     1.21   0.227    -.2109703    .8892993
             70  |   3.336785   3.603374     0.93   0.354    -3.725698    10.39927
             90  |   4.263894   3.535403     1.21   0.228    -2.665369    11.19316
             91  |   5.061139   4.157034     1.22   0.223    -3.086498    13.20878
             92  |   4.645782   3.841683     1.21   0.227    -2.883778    12.17534
             93  |   5.158485   4.130248     1.25   0.212    -2.936653    13.25362
             95  |   5.425575   4.274115     1.27   0.204    -2.951537    13.80269
            100  |   2.470204   2.082255     1.19   0.235    -1.610941     6.55135
            101  |  -1.926199   1.713701    -1.12   0.261    -5.284991    1.432593
            110  |   3.772812   2.287967     1.65   0.099    -.7115213    8.257144
            130  |  -.4554093   .6015502    -0.76   0.449    -1.634426    .7236073
            135  |   2.644081   2.391933     1.11   0.269    -2.044021    7.332182
            140  |  -3.653553   3.124723    -1.17   0.242    -9.777897    2.470792
            145  |    4.37811   3.463984     1.26   0.206    -2.411174    11.16739
            150  |   4.775467   3.992633     1.20   0.232     -3.04995    12.60088
            155  |   2.727189   2.370128     1.15   0.250    -1.918176    7.372554
            160  |   1.644563   1.722792     0.95   0.340    -1.732047    5.021172
            165  |   4.561157   3.746473     1.22   0.223    -2.781795    11.90411
            200  |    1.10049   .5771949     1.91   0.057    -.0307914    2.231771
            210  |   3.084439   1.741265     1.77   0.076    -.3283782    6.497257
            211  |   3.301574   1.794873     1.84   0.066    -.2163136    6.819461
            220  |   2.370992   .6611193     3.59   0.000     1.075222    3.666762
            230  |   2.554197   1.317401     1.94   0.053    -.0278614    5.136256
            235  |   1.003387   1.111145     0.90   0.367    -1.174417     3.18119
            260  |   .1908936   .4470334     0.43   0.669    -.6852758    1.067063
            290  |   6.209046   1.716622     3.62   0.000     2.844529    9.573564
            310  |   5.239524   2.894907     1.81   0.070      -.43439    10.91344
            316  |  -1.523731   1.265925    -1.20   0.229    -4.004899    .9574365
            317  |    .155506   .7386589     0.21   0.833    -1.292239    1.603251
            325  |  -1.370225   2.901327    -0.47   0.637    -7.056722    4.316272
            349  |   5.605497   4.227325     1.33   0.185    -2.679907     13.8909
            350  |   5.367086   2.279426     2.35   0.019     .8994924    9.834679
            355  |   3.873854   2.970337     1.30   0.192    -1.947899    9.695607
            360  |   2.811759   2.280564     1.23   0.218    -1.658065    7.281582
            366  |   2.580506    1.13489     2.27   0.023     .3561628    4.804848
            367  |   2.307202    .715327     3.23   0.001     .9051863    3.709217
            368  |   1.008635   .4013277     2.51   0.012     .2220466    1.795222
            385  |    1.72423   .7866931     2.19   0.028     .1823396     3.26612
            390  |   1.114888   .7806984     1.43   0.153    -.4152526    2.645029
            640  |   4.289765   1.428143     3.00   0.003     1.490656    7.088874
            713  |   1.436388   1.484476     0.97   0.333    -1.473131    4.345907
            732  |   .9714126   1.044654     0.93   0.352    -1.076072    3.018897
            740  |          0  (omitted)
            770  |  -3.279802   2.543529    -1.29   0.197    -8.265027    1.705422
            840  |  -2.178138   1.818896    -1.20   0.231    -5.743109    1.386833
            900  |  -2.432787   2.084291    -1.17   0.243    -6.517922    1.652348
            920  |          0  (omitted)
                 |
           _cons |   8.123602   6.384842     1.27   0.203    -4.390459    20.63766
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |          0
         sigma_e |  4.9483203
             rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model7

. * Additional controls
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck visit_lameduck demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp growth landcontig v
> iol rivalry nukes_us_b affinity_us l_postcw i.region if official ==1, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,777
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1391                                         min =          1
     between = 0.7188                                         avg =       34.8
     overall = 0.1940                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(17)     =   33111.65
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                     (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
     defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     defspend_ch |
             L1. |   .3132888   .0538251     5.82   0.000     .2077935    .4187842
                 |
visit_nolameduck |  -.9255377   .3619319    -2.56   0.011    -1.634911   -.2161643
  visit_lameduck |   4.581483   4.289236     1.07   0.285    -3.825265    12.98823
            demo |   .0859859    .259885     0.33   0.741    -.4233793     .595351
         ln_cinc |  -.0589856    .093677    -0.63   0.529    -.2425892     .124618
                 |
        midcount |
             L1. |   .5548306   .2687935     2.06   0.039      .028005    1.081656
                 |
         realgdp |  -1.79e-07   3.05e-07    -0.59   0.557    -7.77e-07    4.19e-07
          growth |   3.118829   1.724797     1.81   0.071    -.2617115     6.49937
      landcontig |   .5922631   .2610262     2.27   0.023     .0806613    1.103865
            viol |  -.2171077   .1188499    -1.83   0.068    -.4500493    .0158338
         rivalry |   .0191603   .1715119     0.11   0.911    -.3169968    .3553174
      nukes_us_b |  -.3583499   .4388899    -0.82   0.414    -1.218558    .5018586
   affinity_us_b |   .6923998   .3087203     2.24   0.025     .0873191     1.29748
        l_postcw |  -.3095243   .2452165    -1.26   0.207    -.7901398    .1710912
                 |
          region |
              2  |   1.642015   .3129893     5.25   0.000     1.028567    2.255462
              4  |   3.113243   .5057319     6.16   0.000     2.122027    4.104459
              5  |   .0170353   .2181002     0.08   0.938    -.4104333    .4445039
                 |
           _cons |  -.2669218   .6554464    -0.41   0.684    -1.551573    1.017729
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |          0
         sigma_e |  4.9408057
             rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model8

. 
. esttab using table3.tex, replace label se nodepvars booktabs alignment(l) width(0.8\hsize) ///
> b(3)  addn(Robust standard errors are clustered by countries and in parentheses.) /// 
> star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** .01 *** .001) stats(N r2, label("N Obs." "Overall $R^2$")) nogaps scalars("N Obs." "R squared
> " ) ///
> title(Including stopovers, vacations, multilateral conference attendances\label{reg3})
(output written to table3.tex)

. 
. 
. ***Table 3: Excluding Latin American continent
. **Model 1-4: Last years both terms
. reg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp gro
> wth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.region if region == 2 | region ==4 | region ==5 | landcontig==1, robust clus
> ter(ccode)
note: 5.region omitted because of collinearity

Linear regression                               Number of obs     =      1,064
                                                F(13, 30)         =          .
                                                Prob > F          =          .
                                                R-squared         =     0.1731
                                                Root MSE          =     6.3911

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 31 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3099299   .0555521     5.58   0.000     .1964774    .4233824
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -1.153024   .4071061    -2.83   0.008    -1.984446   -.3216024
  visit_lastyear_official |   1.075449   1.938103     0.55   0.583    -2.882684    5.033583
                     demo |  -.3857663   .5073476    -0.76   0.453    -1.421908    .6503758
                  ln_cinc |   -.160654   .1880977    -0.85   0.400    -.5448007    .2234928
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .7947732   .3453924     2.30   0.029     .0893877    1.500159
                          |
                  realgdp |   1.29e-07   3.29e-07     0.39   0.699    -5.44e-07    8.01e-07
                   growth |   7.189626   3.497559     2.06   0.049      .046658    14.33259
               landcontig |   .7512372   .2526862     2.97   0.006     .2351831    1.267291
                     viol |  -.4526521   .2163001    -2.09   0.045    -.8943958   -.0109085
                  rivalry |   .1817237    .362042     0.50   0.619    -.5576647    .9211121
                 l_postcw |  -1.066139   .4160316    -2.56   0.016    -1.915789   -.2164892
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.933651   .3236155     5.98   0.000      1.27274    2.594562
                       4  |   2.831605   .3827357     7.40   0.000     2.049954    3.613256
                       5  |          0  (omitted)
                          |
                    _cons |  -.5499884   .9835552    -0.56   0.580    -2.558676    1.458699
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model1

. * Year FE
. reg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp gro
> wth landcontig viol rivalry i.year i.region if region == 2 | region ==4 | region ==5 | landcontig==1, robust cluste
> r(ccode)
note: 5.region omitted because of collinearity

Linear regression                               Number of obs     =      1,064
                                                F(29, 30)         =          .
                                                Prob > F          =          .
                                                R-squared         =     0.3257
                                                Root MSE          =     5.9287

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 31 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .2322936   .0550404     4.22   0.000     .1198862    .3447011
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -1.381678   .5134723    -2.69   0.012    -2.430328   -.3330277
  visit_lastyear_official |   1.356907   1.759641     0.77   0.447    -2.236758    4.950573
                     demo |  -.2160008   .4450246    -0.49   0.631    -1.124862    .6928607
                  ln_cinc |  -.3158702   .1963833    -1.61   0.118    -.7169384    .0851979
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .6713363   .3001843     2.24   0.033     .0582782    1.284394
                          |
                  realgdp |   5.82e-07   2.27e-07     2.57   0.015     1.19e-07    1.05e-06
                   growth |   12.13104   4.145545     2.93   0.006     3.664711    20.59738
               landcontig |   .7823697   .3308977     2.36   0.025     .1065864    1.458153
                     viol |  -.2799658    .290989    -0.96   0.344    -.8742447    .3143131
                  rivalry |  -.0499317   .2920559    -0.17   0.865    -.6463894    .5465259
                          |
                     year |
                    1952  |  -4.403056   6.787196    -0.65   0.521    -18.26436    9.458247
                    1953  |  -18.29841   8.063685    -2.27   0.031    -34.76665    -1.83017
                    1954  |  -21.55357   8.493386    -2.54   0.017    -38.89938   -4.207757
                    1955  |  -24.09509   8.542865    -2.82   0.008    -41.54194   -6.648227
                    1956  |  -17.38082   7.322302    -2.37   0.024    -32.33495    -2.42668
                    1957  |  -21.45102   6.734795    -3.19   0.003    -35.20531   -7.696736
                    1958  |  -23.43153   7.392666    -3.17   0.004    -38.52936   -8.333689
                    1959  |   -19.1897   7.109278    -2.70   0.011    -33.70878    -4.67062
                    1960  |  -18.43932   7.736146    -2.38   0.024    -34.23864   -2.640008
                    1961  |  -16.76514   8.776345    -1.91   0.066    -34.68883    1.158551
                    1962  |  -17.59815   7.030547    -2.50   0.018    -31.95644   -3.239853
                    1963  |  -21.26896   7.117449    -2.99   0.006    -35.80473   -6.733186
                    1964  |  -18.85846   7.373453    -2.56   0.016    -33.91706   -3.799858
                    1965  |  -20.45615   6.840353    -2.99   0.006    -34.42602   -6.486288
                    1966  |  -20.26834   7.148424    -2.84   0.008    -34.86737   -5.669307
                    1967  |  -16.33328   7.907156    -2.07   0.048    -32.48185   -.1847149
                    1968  |  -19.88348   6.930565    -2.87   0.007    -34.03758   -5.729374
                    1969  |  -22.14727    7.06134    -3.14   0.004    -36.56845   -7.726088
                    1970  |  -18.10023   7.332824    -2.47   0.019    -33.07585   -3.124601
                    1971  |  -18.09741   7.543442    -2.40   0.023    -33.50317   -2.691644
                    1972  |  -19.92235   7.164064    -2.78   0.009    -34.55332   -5.291377
                    1973  |  -21.80665    6.69095    -3.26   0.003    -35.47139   -8.141907
                    1974  |  -16.82748   7.729665    -2.18   0.037    -32.61356   -1.041395
                    1975  |  -15.88111   7.173499    -2.21   0.035    -30.53135   -1.230873
                    1976  |  -22.93042   6.632316    -3.46   0.002    -36.47542   -9.385427
                    1977  |  -19.81685   7.399725    -2.68   0.012     -34.9291   -4.704592
                    1978  |  -20.17955   6.793868    -2.97   0.006    -34.05447   -6.304616
                    1979  |  -20.84942   7.400855    -2.82   0.008    -35.96398   -5.734852
                    1980  |  -20.12667   7.229063    -2.78   0.009    -34.89039   -5.362951
                    1981  |  -19.36356   7.145554    -2.71   0.011    -33.95673   -4.770389
                    1982  |  -18.35369   7.590269    -2.42   0.022    -33.85508   -2.852288
                    1983  |  -21.02978   7.015146    -3.00   0.005    -35.35662   -6.702936
                    1984  |  -20.98128   7.438981    -2.82   0.008    -36.17371   -5.788857
                    1985  |  -20.07991    6.83877    -2.94   0.006    -34.04655   -6.113283
                    1986  |  -20.65404   7.695783    -2.68   0.012    -36.37093   -4.937155
                    1987  |   -20.0126   7.187511    -2.78   0.009    -34.69146   -5.333745
                    1988  |  -21.45213    7.78384    -2.76   0.010    -37.34885   -5.555403
                    1989  |   -20.6658   7.120409    -2.90   0.007    -35.20761   -6.123983
                    1990  |  -20.22448   7.257848    -2.79   0.009    -35.04698   -5.401978
                    1991  |  -21.69553   7.335933    -2.96   0.006    -36.67751   -6.713558
                    1992  |  -21.35239   7.756244    -2.75   0.010    -37.19275   -5.512023
                    1993  |  -22.62322   7.052304    -3.21   0.003    -37.02594   -8.220494
                    1994  |  -21.62879   6.839528    -3.16   0.004    -35.59697   -7.660605
                    1995  |  -22.50743   7.651922    -2.94   0.006    -38.13474   -6.880121
                    1996  |  -20.20286   7.273435    -2.78   0.009    -35.05719   -5.348524
                    1997  |  -21.71702   7.168341    -3.03   0.005    -36.35672   -7.077312
                    1998  |  -19.26652   7.030372    -2.74   0.010    -33.62445   -4.908582
                    1999  |  -19.06652   7.513489    -2.54   0.017    -34.41111   -3.721923
                    2000  |  -21.60752   7.261408    -2.98   0.006    -36.43729   -6.777746
                    2001  |  -21.21219   7.347926    -2.89   0.007    -36.21865   -6.205719
                    2002  |  -19.04852   6.999529    -2.72   0.011    -33.34346   -4.753573
                    2003  |  -21.10119   7.378453    -2.86   0.008       -36.17   -6.032374
                    2004  |  -20.43957   7.496872    -2.73   0.011    -35.75023   -5.128919
                    2005  |   -21.6125   7.355972    -2.94   0.006     -36.6354   -6.589606
                    2006  |  -20.86467   7.217031    -2.89   0.007    -35.60382   -6.125529
                    2007  |  -20.56905    6.87085    -2.99   0.005     -34.6012   -6.536906
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.796764   .3186125     5.64   0.000      1.14607    2.447458
                       4  |   3.585782    .468588     7.65   0.000     2.628797    4.542766
                       5  |          0  (omitted)
                          |
                    _cons |   17.91787   7.387661     2.43   0.022      2.83025    33.00548
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model2

. * Country FE
. reg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp gro
> wth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.ccode if region == 2 | region ==4 | region ==5 | landcontig==1, robust clust
> er(ccode)
note: 740.ccode omitted because of collinearity
note: 920.ccode omitted because of collinearity

Linear regression                               Number of obs     =      1,064
                                                F(9, 30)          =          .
                                                Prob > F          =          .
                                                R-squared         =     0.1806
                                                Root MSE          =     6.4426

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 31 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |    .299523   .0562149     5.33   0.000     .1847168    .4143291
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -1.092574   .4372377    -2.50   0.018    -1.985533   -.1996155
  visit_lastyear_official |   1.144045     2.0328     0.56   0.578    -3.007487    5.295576
                     demo |  -.7815096   .8533543    -0.92   0.367    -2.524292    .9612725
                  ln_cinc |   1.536243   1.434703     1.07   0.293    -1.393812    4.466298
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .7143059   .3860571     1.85   0.074    -.0741279     1.50274
                          |
                  realgdp |   1.51e-07   2.90e-07     0.52   0.606    -4.41e-07    7.43e-07
                   growth |   6.847802   3.823924     1.79   0.083    -.9616921     14.6573
               landcontig |  -3.537045   4.179286    -0.85   0.404    -12.07229    4.998196
                     viol |  -6.845784   6.022322    -1.14   0.265    -19.14501    5.453438
                  rivalry |  -.1204293   .8703868    -0.14   0.891    -1.897996    1.657138
                 l_postcw |  -1.264456    .464518    -2.72   0.011    -2.213128   -.3157834
                          |
                    ccode |
                      70  |    5.82583   5.882591     0.99   0.330    -6.188023    17.83968
                     200  |   1.913699   1.194719     1.60   0.120    -.5262437    4.353641
                     210  |     4.6436   2.737879     1.70   0.100    -.9478959     10.2351
                     211  |   5.066707   2.772774     1.83   0.078    -.5960538    10.72947
                     220  |    3.03652   1.306905     2.32   0.027     .3674648    5.705576
                     230  |   3.948044   2.056693     1.92   0.064    -.2522833    8.148372
                     235  |   .2803796   1.790373     0.16   0.877     -3.37605    3.936809
                     260  |    .663121    .494296     1.34   0.190    -.3463662    1.672608
                     290  |   8.180724   2.506895     3.26   0.003     3.060961    13.30049
                     310  |   7.980968   4.505767     1.77   0.087    -1.221037    17.18297
                     316  |  -.7978756   2.345982    -0.34   0.736    -5.589011     3.99326
                     317  |   .3279985   1.405619     0.23   0.817    -2.542659    3.198656
                     325  |  -3.233263   4.846465    -0.67   0.510    -13.13106    6.664538
                     349  |   9.126604   6.745943     1.35   0.186     -4.65045    22.90366
                     350  |   6.988596   3.840786     1.82   0.079    -.8553361    14.83253
                     355  |   6.538634   4.624234     1.41   0.168     -2.90531    15.98258
                     360  |   4.936367    3.49019     1.41   0.168    -2.191552    12.06429
                     366  |   3.700855   1.695196     2.18   0.037     .2388025    7.162908
                     367  |   2.540427   .8050879     3.16   0.004     .8962179    4.184636
                     368  |   1.657866   .5345812     3.10   0.004     .5661059    2.749627
                     385  |    1.43685   1.362031     1.05   0.300    -1.344789    4.218488
                     390  |   .8563119   1.364931     0.63   0.535     -1.93125    3.643874
                     640  |   5.227484   2.441087     2.14   0.040     .2421193    10.21285
                     713  |   2.036424   2.531012     0.80   0.427    -3.132593     7.20544
                     732  |   1.572344   1.776891     0.88   0.383    -2.056552     5.20124
                     740  |          0  (omitted)
                     770  |  -4.897965   4.385621    -1.12   0.273     -13.8546    4.058669
                     840  |  -3.301512   3.144875    -1.05   0.302    -9.724202    3.121179
                     900  |  -3.570675   3.569832    -1.00   0.325    -10.86124    3.719895
                     920  |          0  (omitted)
                          |
                    _cons |   11.97596   10.98136     1.09   0.284    -10.45097     34.4029
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model3

. * Additional controls
. reg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp gro
> wth landcontig viol rivalry nukes_us_b affinity_us l_postcw i.region if region == 2 | region ==4 | region ==5 | lan
> dcontig==1, robust cluster(ccode)
note: 5.region omitted because of collinearity

Linear regression                               Number of obs     =      1,064
                                                F(15, 30)         =          .
                                                Prob > F          =          .
                                                R-squared         =     0.1785
                                                Root MSE          =     6.3762

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 31 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3062099   .0554502     5.52   0.000     .1929655    .4194543
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -1.136939   .4168433    -2.73   0.011    -1.988247   -.2856317
  visit_lastyear_official |   1.074997   1.960306     0.55   0.587    -2.928483    5.078477
                     demo |   -.753516   .5054797    -1.49   0.146    -1.785843    .2788111
                  ln_cinc |  -.1474938   .2335162    -0.63   0.532    -.6243976      .32941
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .7891926   .3698244     2.13   0.041     .0339104    1.544475
                          |
                  realgdp |   1.07e-07   3.40e-07     0.31   0.756    -5.88e-07    8.01e-07
                   growth |   6.392729   3.351421     1.91   0.066    -.4517845    13.23724
               landcontig |   .5537915   .2509446     2.21   0.035     .0412942    1.066289
                     viol |  -.2855296   .2434316    -1.17   0.250    -.7826831     .211624
                  rivalry |   .0473777   .3395709     0.14   0.890    -.6461186     .740874
               nukes_us_b |  -.4606532   .4383151    -1.05   0.302    -1.355812    .4345056
            affinity_us_b |   1.671429   .6846202     2.44   0.021     .2732477     3.06961
                 l_postcw |  -.4162986   .4498954    -0.93   0.362    -1.335108    .5025104
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.732235   .3424763     5.06   0.000     1.032805    2.431665
                       4  |   3.149391   .6390116     4.93   0.000     1.844355    4.454427
                       5  |          0  (omitted)
                          |
                    _cons |   -.480719   1.239765    -0.39   0.701    -3.012657    2.051219
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model4

. **Model 5-8: Last years in second term only
. reg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp gro
> wth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.region if region == 2 | region ==4 | region ==5 | landcontig==1, robust clus
> ter(ccode)
note: 5.region omitted because of collinearity

Linear regression                               Number of obs     =      1,064
                                                F(13, 30)         =          .
                                                Prob > F          =          .
                                                R-squared         =     0.1767
                                                Root MSE          =      6.377

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 31 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3093492   .0560151     5.52   0.000     .1949511    .4237473
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |  -1.205726   .4201183    -2.87   0.007    -2.063722   -.3477298
  visit_lameduck_official |   3.617809   3.984971     0.91   0.371    -4.520588    11.75621
                     demo |  -.2772721   .5235383    -0.53   0.600     -1.34648    .7919358
                  ln_cinc |  -.1462656   .1882808    -0.78   0.443    -.5307863    .2382551
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .8004998   .3545665     2.26   0.031     .0763785    1.524621
                          |
                  realgdp |   1.41e-07   3.16e-07     0.45   0.657    -5.03e-07    7.86e-07
                   growth |    7.47876   3.695278     2.02   0.052    -.0680038    15.02552
               landcontig |    .741684   .2504881     2.96   0.006      .230119    1.253249
                     viol |  -.4792627   .2261828    -2.12   0.042    -.9411896   -.0173359
                  rivalry |   .2025468   .3687843     0.55   0.587    -.5506113    .9557049
                 l_postcw |  -1.069159   .4216372    -2.54   0.017    -1.930257   -.2080611
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.903876   .3148909     6.05   0.000     1.260783    2.546969
                       4  |   2.840623   .3820347     7.44   0.000     2.060404    3.620842
                       5  |          0  (omitted)
                          |
                    _cons |  -.5500605   .9881671    -0.56   0.582    -2.568167    1.468046
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model5

. * Year FE
. reg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp gro
> wth landcontig viol rivalry i.year i.region if region == 2 | region ==4 | region ==5 | landcontig==1, robust cluste
> r(ccode)
note: 5.region omitted because of collinearity

Linear regression                               Number of obs     =      1,064
                                                F(29, 30)         =          .
                                                Prob > F          =          .
                                                R-squared         =     0.3279
                                                Root MSE          =     5.9192

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 31 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .2310483   .0554719     4.17   0.000     .1177595    .3443371
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |  -1.300871   .5042615    -2.58   0.015    -2.330711   -.2710318
  visit_lameduck_official |   3.780055   4.010896     0.94   0.353    -4.411288     11.9714
                     demo |  -.0977236   .4735399    -0.21   0.838    -1.064821    .8693738
                  ln_cinc |  -.3046355   .1988642    -1.53   0.136    -.7107705    .1014994
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |    .672575   .3225223     2.09   0.046     .0138965    1.331253
                          |
                  realgdp |   5.98e-07   2.25e-07     2.66   0.012     1.39e-07    1.06e-06
                   growth |   12.34465   4.279554     2.88   0.007      3.60463    21.08466
               landcontig |   .7532405   .3367303     2.24   0.033     .0655455    1.440935
                     viol |  -.3101126   .3000189    -1.03   0.310    -.9228329    .3026076
                  rivalry |  -.0228103   .3011705    -0.08   0.940    -.6378826    .5922619
                          |
                     year |
                    1952  |   -4.36176   6.785277    -0.64   0.525    -18.21914    9.495623
                    1953  |  -18.26762   8.064477    -2.27   0.031    -34.73748   -1.797762
                    1954  |  -21.55284   8.488416    -2.54   0.017     -38.8885   -4.217182
                    1955  |  -24.08733   8.543539    -2.82   0.008    -41.53557   -6.639098
                    1956  |  -17.37372    7.32824    -2.37   0.024    -32.33998   -2.407459
                    1957  |  -21.44212   6.734611    -3.18   0.003    -35.19603   -7.688206
                    1958  |  -23.41987   7.390696    -3.17   0.004    -38.51368   -8.326053
                    1959  |  -19.18524   7.104394    -2.70   0.011    -33.69434   -4.676128
                    1960  |  -18.47144   7.715162    -2.39   0.023     -34.2279   -2.714978
                    1961  |  -17.38881   8.384395    -2.07   0.047    -34.51203   -.2655947
                    1962  |  -17.59165   7.028822    -2.50   0.018    -31.94642   -3.236882
                    1963  |  -21.25848   7.115691    -2.99   0.006    -35.79065   -6.726297
                    1964  |  -18.86229   7.365439    -2.56   0.016    -33.90452    -3.82006
                    1965  |  -20.30725   6.878847    -2.95   0.006    -34.35573   -6.258773
                    1966  |   -20.2633   7.148635    -2.83   0.008    -34.86276    -5.66384
                    1967  |  -16.34546   7.901358    -2.07   0.047    -32.48218   -.2087333
                    1968  |  -19.89406   6.922681    -2.87   0.007    -34.03206   -5.756056
                    1969  |  -22.14424      7.062    -3.14   0.004    -36.56677   -7.721711
                    1970  |  -18.12885   7.315298    -2.48   0.019    -33.06868   -3.189015
                    1971  |  -18.09483   7.541699    -2.40   0.023    -33.49704   -2.692629
                    1972  |  -19.91646   7.163325    -2.78   0.009    -34.54592   -5.287003
                    1973  |  -21.67176   6.729388    -3.22   0.003      -35.415   -7.928512
                    1974  |  -16.82206   7.730032    -2.18   0.038    -32.60889   -1.035231
                    1975  |  -15.90308   7.166432    -2.22   0.034    -30.53889   -1.267275
                    1976  |  -22.52249   6.787573    -3.32   0.002    -36.38457    -8.66042
                    1977  |  -19.82105   7.395009    -2.68   0.012    -34.92368   -4.718431
                    1978  |  -20.18382   6.790148    -2.97   0.006    -34.05116    -6.31649
                    1979  |  -20.85357   7.396339    -2.82   0.008    -35.95891   -5.748229
                    1980  |   -20.1358   7.219838    -2.79   0.009    -34.88068   -5.390923
                    1981  |  -18.93876   7.367975    -2.57   0.015    -33.98617   -3.891347
                    1982  |  -18.34509   7.588958    -2.42   0.022    -33.84381   -2.846371
                    1983  |   -21.0491   7.000769    -3.01   0.005    -35.34658   -6.751623
                    1984  |  -20.99661    7.42891    -2.83   0.008    -36.16846   -5.824748
                    1985  |  -19.81735   6.889886    -2.88   0.007    -33.88838   -5.746327
                    1986  |  -20.68314   7.677958    -2.69   0.011    -36.36362   -5.002656
                    1987  |   -20.0329   7.180623    -2.79   0.009    -34.69769   -5.368112
                    1988  |  -21.48699   7.768596    -2.77   0.010    -37.35258   -5.621397
                    1989  |  -21.34594   7.006679    -3.05   0.005    -35.65549   -7.036396
                    1990  |  -20.27959   7.230518    -2.80   0.009    -35.04628   -5.512906
                    1991  |  -21.73154   7.320259    -2.97   0.006     -36.6815   -6.781574
                    1992  |   -21.4136   7.731471    -2.77   0.010    -37.20337   -5.623831
                    1993  |  -22.35693   7.132339    -3.13   0.004    -36.92311   -7.790749
                    1994  |  -21.67636    6.82311    -3.18   0.003    -35.61101   -7.741714
                    1995  |  -22.55817   7.630606    -2.96   0.006    -38.14195   -6.974395
                    1996  |  -20.24499   7.260912    -2.79   0.009    -35.07375   -5.416224
                    1997  |  -21.31218   7.304715    -2.92   0.007    -36.23039   -6.393959
                    1998  |  -19.31827   7.011666    -2.76   0.010    -33.63801   -4.998542
                    1999  |   -19.1108   7.496376    -2.55   0.016    -34.42045   -3.801162
                    2000  |  -21.66219   7.244486    -2.99   0.006     -36.4574   -6.866976
                    2001  |  -22.00715   6.968334    -3.16   0.004    -36.23839   -7.775912
                    2002  |   -19.0858   6.984964    -2.73   0.010      -33.351   -4.820597
                    2003  |  -21.13789    7.36202    -2.87   0.007    -36.17315   -6.102644
                    2004  |  -20.48812   7.476146    -2.74   0.010    -35.75645   -5.219795
                    2005  |  -21.13499   7.508564    -2.81   0.009    -36.46953   -5.800459
                    2006  |  -20.89369    7.20128    -2.90   0.007    -35.60066   -6.186712
                    2007  |  -20.59218   6.860969    -3.00   0.005    -34.60415   -6.580212
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.760236   .3203592     5.49   0.000     1.105975    2.414496
                       4  |   3.602345   .4819522     7.47   0.000     2.618067    4.586623
                       5  |          0  (omitted)
                          |
                    _cons |   17.90061   7.382476     2.42   0.022     2.823586    32.97764
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model6

. * Country FE
. reg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp gro
> wth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.ccode if region == 2 | region ==4 | region ==5 | landcontig==1, robust clust
> er(ccode)
note: 740.ccode omitted because of collinearity
note: 920.ccode omitted because of collinearity

Linear regression                               Number of obs     =      1,064
                                                F(9, 30)          =          .
                                                Prob > F          =          .
                                                R-squared         =     0.1846
                                                Root MSE          =     6.4267

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 31 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .2985405   .0567569     5.26   0.000     .1826275    .4144534
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |  -1.164995   .4448754    -2.62   0.014    -2.073552   -.2564386
  visit_lameduck_official |   3.860116   4.137029     0.93   0.358    -4.588825    12.30906
                     demo |  -.6826527   .8783374    -0.78   0.443    -2.476457    1.111152
                  ln_cinc |   1.664215   1.461045     1.14   0.264    -1.319637    4.648068
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .7170078   .3943956     1.82   0.079    -.0884554    1.522471
                          |
                  realgdp |   1.76e-07   2.68e-07     0.66   0.515    -3.71e-07    7.23e-07
                   growth |   7.085176   3.995868     1.77   0.086    -1.075476    15.24583
               landcontig |  -3.852053   4.255023    -0.91   0.373    -12.54197    4.837863
                     viol |  -7.387556   6.170746    -1.20   0.241     -19.9899    5.214789
                  rivalry |  -.1305788   .8762455    -0.15   0.883    -1.920111    1.658953
                 l_postcw |  -1.284238   .4756769    -2.70   0.011      -2.2557   -.3127764
                          |
                    ccode |
                      70  |   6.308311   5.999765     1.05   0.301    -5.944844    18.56147
                     200  |   1.914102   1.205955     1.59   0.123    -.5487869    4.376991
                     210  |   4.885737   2.813969     1.74   0.093    -.8611535    10.63263
                     211  |   5.250559   2.837419     1.85   0.074    -.5442241    11.04534
                     220  |     3.1684   1.320107     2.40   0.023     .4723811    5.864419
                     230  |   4.124329   2.110255     1.95   0.060    -.1853864    8.434044
                     235  |   .1063754   1.850306     0.06   0.955    -3.672453    3.885203
                     260  |   .7521911   .5323952     1.41   0.168     -.335105    1.839487
                     290  |   8.435141   2.601018     3.24   0.003     3.123154    13.74713
                     310  |   8.423085     4.6432     1.81   0.080    -1.059594    17.90576
                     316  |  -.9741935   2.377841    -0.41   0.685    -5.830393    3.882006
                     317  |    .270621   1.433102     0.19   0.851    -2.656164    3.197405
                     325  |  -3.623141   4.941555    -0.73   0.469    -13.71514     6.46886
                     349  |    9.76516   6.927324     1.41   0.169    -4.382322    23.91264
                     350  |   7.376042    3.91381     1.88   0.069    -.6170245    15.36911
                     355  |   6.975426   4.749695     1.47   0.152    -2.724746     16.6756
                     360  |   5.258224   3.579235     1.47   0.152    -2.051549      12.568
                     366  |   3.907892   1.733443     2.25   0.032      .367729    7.448055
                     367  |   2.659577   .8308996     3.20   0.003     .9626536      4.3565
                     368  |   1.712589   .5489624     3.12   0.004      .591458    2.833719
                     385  |   1.324656   1.378375     0.96   0.344    -1.490361    4.139672
                     390  |   .7468908   1.381681     0.54   0.593    -2.074879     3.56866
                     640  |   5.474224   2.487534     2.20   0.036     .3940009    10.55445
                     713  |   2.353801   2.541696     0.93   0.362    -2.837035    7.544637
                     732  |   1.812237   1.774042     1.02   0.315    -1.810839    5.435313
                     740  |          0  (omitted)
                     770  |  -5.254465   4.474775    -1.17   0.250    -14.39317    3.884244
                     840  |  -3.508709   3.199378    -1.10   0.282    -10.04271    3.025292
                     900  |  -3.849824   3.631283    -1.06   0.298    -11.26589    3.566245
                     920  |          0  (omitted)
                          |
                    _cons |    12.8179   11.17457     1.15   0.260    -10.00361    35.63942
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model7

. * Additional controls
. reg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp gro
> wth landcontig viol rivalry nukes_us_b affinity_us l_postcw i.region if region == 2 | region ==4 | region ==5 | lan
> dcontig==1, robust cluster(ccode)
note: 5.region omitted because of collinearity

Linear regression                               Number of obs     =      1,064
                                                F(15, 30)         =          .
                                                Prob > F          =          .
                                                R-squared         =     0.1823
                                                Root MSE          =     6.3614

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 31 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3056063   .0559327     5.46   0.000     .1913765    .4198361
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |    -1.1901   .4263823    -2.79   0.009    -2.060889   -.3193109
  visit_lameduck_official |    3.71974   3.971943     0.94   0.356    -4.392049    11.83153
                     demo |  -.6496028   .5283621    -1.23   0.228    -1.728662    .4294566
                  ln_cinc |  -.1344849   .2368087    -0.57   0.574    -.6181126    .3491429
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .7943729   .3786854     2.10   0.044     .0209941    1.567752
                          |
                  realgdp |   1.18e-07   3.28e-07     0.36   0.721    -5.51e-07    7.87e-07
                   growth |   6.670995   3.541827     1.88   0.069    -.5623806    13.90437
               landcontig |   .5392159   .2478234     2.18   0.038      .033093    1.045339
                     viol |  -.3091711   .2524828    -1.22   0.230    -.8248098    .2064675
                  rivalry |   .0654961   .3463641     0.19   0.851    -.6418738    .7728661
               nukes_us_b |  -.4584535   .4489047    -1.02   0.315    -1.375239    .4583322
            affinity_us_b |    1.70857   .6959722     2.45   0.020     .2872055    3.129935
                 l_postcw |  -.4037418   .4569337    -0.88   0.384    -1.336925    .5294413
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.693286   .3402872     4.98   0.000     .9983273    2.388246
                       4  |   3.157574   .6538404     4.83   0.000     1.822254    4.492894
                       5  |          0  (omitted)
                          |
                    _cons |  -.4934563   1.265117    -0.39   0.699    -3.077171    2.090258
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model8

. 
. esttab using table4.tex, replace label se nodepvars booktabs alignment(l) width(0.8\hsize) ///
> b(3)  addn(Robust standard errors are clustered by countries and in parentheses.) /// 
> star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** .01 *** .001) stats(N r2, label("N Obs." "Overall $R^2$")) nogaps scalars("N Obs." "R squared
> " ) ///
> title(Excluding South American allies\label{reg4})
(output written to table4.tex)

. 
. 
. ***Table 4: Excluding November & December
. **Model 1-4: Last years both terms
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.region if novdec ==0, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,768
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1343                                         min =          1
     between = 0.7079                                         avg =       34.7
     overall = 0.1902                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(15)     =   29913.68
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3198297   .0553515     5.78   0.000     .2113428    .4283166
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -.8547417   .3688945    -2.32   0.021    -1.577762   -.1317218
  visit_lastyear_official |   .9048505   1.727532     0.52   0.600     -2.48105    4.290751
                     demo |  -.0898222   .2454135    -0.37   0.714    -.5708238    .3911793
                  ln_cinc |  -.0393902   .0899385    -0.44   0.661    -.2156665     .136886
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .6067645   .3406121     1.78   0.075     -.060823    1.274352
                          |
                  realgdp |  -2.88e-07   3.15e-07    -0.91   0.361    -9.06e-07    3.30e-07
                   growth |   3.292244   1.787982     1.84   0.066    -.2121371    6.796625
               landcontig |   .6949095    .264768     2.62   0.009     .1759738    1.213845
                     viol |  -.2678029   .1361604    -1.97   0.049    -.5346724   -.0009335
                  rivalry |  -.0086901   .1889541    -0.05   0.963    -.3790333    .3616531
                 l_postcw |  -.5236826     .24238    -2.16   0.031    -.9987387   -.0486265
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.801551   .3255773     5.53   0.000     1.163431     2.43967
                       4  |   3.047764   .3210109     9.49   0.000     2.418594    3.676933
                       5  |   .0278073   .1657207     0.17   0.867    -.2969993    .3526139
                          |
                    _cons |   .0254093   .6292591     0.04   0.968    -1.207916    1.258735
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.9663137
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model1

. * Year FE
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry i.year i.region if novdec ==0, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,768
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.2651                                         min =          1
     between = 0.6756                                         avg =       34.7
     overall = 0.3108                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(50)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .2542781   .0539323     4.71   0.000     .1485728    .3599835
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -.8224129   .4299678    -1.91   0.056    -1.665134    .0203086
  visit_lastyear_official |   .8245047   1.494054     0.55   0.581    -2.103788    3.752797
                     demo |   .1020543   .2323544     0.44   0.661     -.353352    .5574607
                  ln_cinc |  -.1513634   .0786375    -1.92   0.054    -.3054902    .0027633
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .5312229   .3219478     1.65   0.099    -.0997832    1.162229
                          |
                  realgdp |   9.25e-08   1.84e-07     0.50   0.615    -2.68e-07    4.53e-07
                   growth |   5.297551   2.158839     2.45   0.014     1.066305    9.528797
               landcontig |   .6457486   .3001631     2.15   0.031     .0574397    1.234057
                     viol |  -.1867049   .1469959    -1.27   0.204    -.4748116    .1014018
                  rivalry |  -.0377641   .1703791    -0.22   0.825     -.371701    .2961728
                          |
                     year |
                    1952  |  -7.217087   6.698616    -1.08   0.281    -20.34613    5.911959
                    1953  |  -19.00535   7.667579    -2.48   0.013    -34.03352   -3.977166
                    1954  |  -20.91979   8.124705    -2.57   0.010    -36.84392   -4.995661
                    1955  |  -23.18483   8.093532    -2.86   0.004    -39.04786   -7.321798
                    1956  |  -17.99185   7.036111    -2.56   0.011    -31.78238   -4.201326
                    1957  |  -21.01193    6.70422    -3.13   0.002    -34.15196   -7.871903
                    1958  |  -22.31102   7.092533    -3.15   0.002    -36.21213   -8.409908
                    1959  |  -19.58151   6.935307    -2.82   0.005    -33.17447   -5.988561
                    1960  |  -19.48777   7.399338    -2.63   0.008    -33.99021   -4.985335
                    1961  |   -17.9407   7.908299    -2.27   0.023    -33.44068   -2.440719
                    1962  |  -18.67057   6.891528    -2.71   0.007    -32.17772   -5.163421
                    1963  |  -20.83389   6.990638    -2.98   0.003    -34.53529   -7.132486
                    1964  |  -19.38263   7.139935    -2.71   0.007    -33.37665   -5.388616
                    1965  |  -20.30227   6.806933    -2.98   0.003    -33.64362   -6.960927
                    1966  |  -20.20543   7.005349    -2.88   0.004    -33.93566   -6.475198
                    1967  |  -17.80769   7.450514    -2.39   0.017    -32.41043   -3.204955
                    1968  |    -20.123   6.850386    -2.94   0.003    -33.54951    -6.69649
                    1969  |  -21.42736   6.921392    -3.10   0.002    -34.99304   -7.861679
                    1970  |  -18.97416   7.135944    -2.66   0.008    -32.96036   -4.987969
                    1971  |   -19.0869   7.200147    -2.65   0.008    -33.19893   -4.974867
                    1972  |  -19.89556   7.056676    -2.82   0.005    -33.72639    -6.06473
                    1973  |  -21.03099   6.781482    -3.10   0.002    -34.32245   -7.739532
                    1974  |  -18.30879   7.307971    -2.51   0.012    -32.63216   -3.985434
                    1975  |   -17.9075   6.712032    -2.67   0.008    -31.06285   -4.752162
                    1976  |   -21.7612   6.779331    -3.21   0.001    -35.04844   -8.473951
                    1977  |  -20.04025   7.128622    -2.81   0.005    -34.01209   -6.068407
                    1978  |  -20.22299   6.793204    -2.98   0.003    -33.53743   -6.908556
                    1979  |  -20.51774   7.152326    -2.87   0.004    -34.53604   -6.499439
                    1980  |  -20.19501   7.013697    -2.88   0.004    -33.94161   -6.448419
                    1981  |  -19.72288   6.992411    -2.82   0.005    -33.42775   -6.018002
                    1982  |  -19.14834   7.236701    -2.65   0.008    -33.33201   -4.964668
                    1983  |  -20.89753   6.885436    -3.04   0.002    -34.39274   -7.402329
                    1984  |  -20.79574   7.153561    -2.91   0.004    -34.81646   -6.775015
                    1985  |  -20.10608   6.817797    -2.95   0.003    -33.46871   -6.743441
                    1986  |  -20.62754    7.36126    -2.80   0.005    -35.05534   -6.199733
                    1987  |  -20.03491   7.033915    -2.85   0.004    -33.82113   -6.248694
                    1988  |  -20.86928   7.370593    -2.83   0.005    -35.31538   -6.423187
                    1989  |  -20.32313   6.999256    -2.90   0.004    -34.04142   -6.604841
                    1990  |  -20.30911   7.061586    -2.88   0.004    -34.14957   -6.468659
                    1991  |  -21.34216   7.143746    -2.99   0.003    -35.34364   -7.340674
                    1992  |  -20.84174   7.356504    -2.83   0.005    -35.26022   -6.423254
                    1993  |  -21.42263   6.958052    -3.08   0.002    -35.06016   -7.785095
                    1994  |  -20.93535   6.881187    -3.04   0.002    -34.42223    -7.44847
                    1995  |  -21.46467    7.27051    -2.95   0.003     -35.7146   -7.214729
                    1996  |  -20.17097   7.074796    -2.85   0.004    -34.03732   -6.304624
                    1997  |  -20.86277   7.085543    -2.94   0.003    -34.75018   -6.975361
                    1998  |  -19.85364   6.985852    -2.84   0.004    -33.54566   -6.161621
                    1999  |  -19.52081   7.234348    -2.70   0.007    -33.69987   -5.341745
                    2000  |  -20.70389   7.031589    -2.94   0.003    -34.48555   -6.922224
                    2001  |  -20.74041   7.137848    -2.91   0.004    -34.73034   -6.750486
                    2002  |  -19.57458   6.915791    -2.83   0.005    -33.12928   -6.019879
                    2003  |  -20.96904   7.126936    -2.94   0.003    -34.93758   -7.000501
                    2004  |  -20.43017   7.184303    -2.84   0.004    -34.51115   -6.349197
                    2005  |  -20.96317   7.171389    -2.92   0.003    -35.01884    -6.90751
                    2006  |  -20.64703   7.041815    -2.93   0.003    -34.44873   -6.845322
                    2007  |  -20.24838    6.84441    -2.96   0.003    -33.66318   -6.833586
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.551835   .3555995     4.36   0.000     .8548725    2.248797
                       4  |   3.506057   .3229811    10.86   0.000     2.873025    4.139088
                       5  |   .0262649   .2104468     0.12   0.901    -.3862033    .4387331
                          |
                    _cons |   19.05522    7.07533     2.69   0.007     5.187825    32.92261
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.6479489
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model2

. * Country FE
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.ccode if novdec ==0, robust cluster(ccode)
note: 740.ccode omitted because of collinearity
note: 920.ccode omitted because of collinearity

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,768
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1367                                         min =          1
     between = 1.0000                                         avg =       34.7
     overall = 0.1986                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(10)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3090794   .0565551     5.47   0.000     .1982334    .4199254
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -.7940713   .3898841    -2.04   0.042     -1.55823   -.0299124
  visit_lastyear_official |   .8850821   1.791915     0.49   0.621    -2.627007    4.397172
                     demo |  -.3670852   .3872298    -0.95   0.343    -1.126042    .3918712
                  ln_cinc |   1.340963   .9036131     1.48   0.138     -.430086    3.112012
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .5552765   .3617984     1.53   0.125    -.1538353    1.264388
                          |
                  realgdp |  -3.95e-07   4.05e-07    -0.97   0.330    -1.19e-06    4.00e-07
                   growth |   3.272417   1.942776     1.68   0.092    -.5353547    7.080188
               landcontig |  -2.753806   2.631505    -1.05   0.295     -7.91146    2.403849
                     viol |  -5.108086   3.861823    -1.32   0.186    -12.67712    2.460949
                  rivalry |  -.2754394   .4521707    -0.61   0.542    -1.161678    .6107989
                 l_postcw |  -.6588642   .2507619    -2.63   0.009    -1.150348     -.16738
                          |
                    ccode |
                      41  |    6.00071   4.065558     1.48   0.140    -1.967638    13.96906
                      42  |   4.740118   3.609628     1.31   0.189    -2.334623    11.81486
                      51  |   2.161013   1.191585     1.81   0.070      -.17445    4.496477
                      52  |   .2477374   .2550943     0.97   0.331    -.2522383    .7477131
                      70  |   4.309611   3.797682     1.13   0.256    -3.133709    11.75293
                      90  |   4.977009   3.676197     1.35   0.176    -2.228205    12.18222
                      91  |   5.973743   4.344878     1.37   0.169    -2.542062    14.48955
                      92  |   5.484637    4.01062     1.37   0.171    -2.376035    13.34531
                      93  |   6.121928   4.343006     1.41   0.159    -2.390207    14.63406
                      95  |   6.308106   4.423885     1.43   0.154     -2.36255    14.97876
                     100  |   2.939873   2.201482     1.34   0.182    -1.374951    7.254698
                     101  |  -2.464233   1.814836    -1.36   0.175    -6.021246    1.092781
                     110  |   4.452785   2.450218     1.82   0.069    -.3495539    9.255125
                     130  |  -.6597408   .6727856    -0.98   0.327    -1.978376    .6588947
                     135  |   3.049021    2.47892     1.23   0.219    -1.809574    7.907615
                     140  |  -4.463365   3.278718    -1.36   0.173    -10.88953    1.962804
                     145  |   5.183821   3.625515     1.43   0.153    -1.922058     12.2897
                     150  |   5.651172   4.168626     1.36   0.175    -2.519184    13.82153
                     155  |   3.236542   2.479434     1.31   0.192    -1.623059    8.096144
                     160  |   1.945223   1.805012     1.08   0.281    -1.592535    5.482981
                     165  |   5.383607   3.912671     1.38   0.169    -2.285086     13.0523
                     200  |   1.331801   .6353063     2.10   0.036     .0866239    2.576979
                     210  |      3.401    1.81983     1.87   0.062    -.1658011      6.9678
                     211  |   3.627633   1.884223     1.93   0.054     -.065377    7.320643
                     220  |   2.691235   .7263522     3.71   0.000     1.267611    4.114859
                     230  |   3.016542   1.399666     2.16   0.031     .2732469    5.759837
                     235  |   .7717682   1.168845     0.66   0.509    -1.519126    3.062663
                     260  |    .155525   .4766352     0.33   0.744    -.7786628    1.089713
                     290  |    6.48767   1.812433     3.58   0.000     2.935367    10.03997
                     310  |     5.8376   3.036033     1.92   0.055    -.1129154    11.78812
                     316  |  -1.914557   1.335567    -1.43   0.152     -4.53222    .7031061
                     317  |  -.1443815   .7170902    -0.20   0.840    -1.549852    1.261089
                     325  |  -2.295952   3.072178    -0.75   0.455    -8.317311    3.725407
                     349  |    6.61708   4.439174     1.49   0.136    -2.083542     15.3177
                     350  |   5.686517   2.376205     2.39   0.017     1.029241    10.34379
                     355  |   4.517486   3.109987     1.45   0.146    -1.577976    10.61295
                     360  |   3.286575   2.392165     1.37   0.169    -1.401983    7.975133
                     366  |   2.325631   1.182387     1.97   0.049     .0081954    4.643067
                     367  |   2.280076   .7429154     3.07   0.002     .8239885    3.736164
                     368  |   1.063124   .4025311     2.64   0.008     .2741779    1.852071
                     385  |   1.573646   .8311788     1.89   0.058    -.0554343    3.202727
                     390  |   .8700734   .8281698     1.05   0.293    -.7531097    2.493256
                     640  |   4.602877   1.486939     3.10   0.002     1.688529    7.517224
                     713  |   1.578013   1.529017     1.03   0.302    -1.418806    4.574831
                     732  |   .9947252   1.099773     0.90   0.366     -1.16079     3.15024
                     740  |          0  (omitted)
                     770  |  -4.087943   2.704585    -1.51   0.131    -9.388833    1.212946
                     840  |  -2.754959   1.921076    -1.43   0.152    -6.520198    1.010281
                     900  |   -3.05405   2.208355    -1.38   0.167    -7.382347    1.274247
                     920  |          0  (omitted)
                          |
                    _cons |   10.24815   6.885537     1.49   0.137    -3.247255    23.74355
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.9663137
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model3

. * Additional controls
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry nukes_us_b affinity_us l_postcw i.region if novdec ==0, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,768
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1366                                         min =          1
     between = 0.7164                                         avg =       34.7
     overall = 0.1926                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(17)     =   31141.31
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3174016   .0550224     5.77   0.000     .2095596    .4252436
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -.8331661   .3712002    -2.24   0.025    -1.560705    -.105627
  visit_lastyear_official |   .8743784   1.733697     0.50   0.614    -2.523605    4.272362
                     demo |  -.0260031   .2475679    -0.11   0.916    -.5112272    .4592209
                  ln_cinc |  -.0183732   .0977741    -0.19   0.851     -.210007    .1732606
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .6011394   .3490383     1.72   0.085    -.0829631    1.285242
                          |
                  realgdp |  -3.23e-07   3.10e-07    -1.04   0.297    -9.31e-07    2.84e-07
                   growth |   2.913069   1.763467     1.65   0.099    -.5432626      6.3694
               landcontig |   .6064093   .2639537     2.30   0.022     .0890695    1.123749
                     viol |  -.2142006   .1172855    -1.83   0.068     -.444076    .0156747
                  rivalry |  -.0011213   .1875335    -0.01   0.995    -.3686802    .3664376
               nukes_us_b |  -.4425375   .4222547    -1.05   0.295    -1.270142    .3850664
            affinity_us_b |   .7080919   .3196853     2.21   0.027     .0815202    1.334664
                 l_postcw |  -.2826053   .2161705    -1.31   0.191    -.7062917     .141081
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.704341   .3344899     5.10   0.000     1.048753    2.359929
                       4  |    3.27028   .4930297     6.63   0.000      2.30396    4.236601
                       5  |  -.0031367   .2089579    -0.02   0.988    -.4126867    .4064133
                          |
                    _cons |    .074615   .6693586     0.11   0.911    -1.237304    1.386534
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.9586809
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model4

. **Model 5-8: Last years in second term only
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.region if novdec ==0, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,768
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1376                                         min =          1
     between = 0.7076                                         avg =       34.7
     overall = 0.1932                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(15)     =   33430.87
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3192533   .0556825     5.73   0.000     .2101177     .428389
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |  -.9692988   .3626244    -2.67   0.008     -1.68003    -.258568
  visit_lameduck_official |   2.952408   3.264657     0.90   0.366    -3.446202    9.351017
                     demo |  -.0384257   .2380199    -0.16   0.872    -.5049363    .4280848
                  ln_cinc |  -.0519854   .0899697    -0.58   0.563    -.2283227    .1243519
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .6114851   .3489174     1.75   0.080    -.0723804    1.295351
                          |
                  realgdp |  -2.35e-07   2.93e-07    -0.80   0.424    -8.10e-07    3.41e-07
                   growth |    3.39832    1.86278     1.82   0.068    -.2526617    7.049303
               landcontig |   .6972391   .2615445     2.67   0.008     .1846213    1.209857
                     viol |  -.2552463   .1290061    -1.98   0.048    -.5080936    -.002399
                  rivalry |  -.0020891   .1898126    -0.01   0.991     -.374115    .3699367
                 l_postcw |  -.5440062   .2442177    -2.23   0.026    -1.022664   -.0653483
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |    1.80022   .3218453     5.59   0.000     1.169414    2.431025
                       4  |   3.077539   .3295276     9.34   0.000     2.431677    3.723401
                       5  |     .03451   .1645826     0.21   0.834     -.288066    .3570859
                          |
                    _cons |  -.1040273   .6491412    -0.16   0.873    -1.376321    1.168266
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.9564404
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model5

. * Year FE
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry i.year i.region if novdec ==0, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,768
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.2674                                         min =          1
     between = 0.6740                                         avg =       34.7
     overall = 0.3128                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(50)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .2535463   .0541884     4.68   0.000      .147339    .3597536
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |   -.880149   .4080103    -2.16   0.031    -1.679834   -.0804636
  visit_lameduck_official |   2.746107   3.066161     0.90   0.370    -3.263458    8.755671
                     demo |   .1616229   .2257745     0.72   0.474     -.280887    .6041328
                  ln_cinc |  -.1618767   .0805104    -2.01   0.044    -.3196741   -.0040793
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .5384614   .3341797     1.61   0.107    -.1165188    1.193441
                          |
                  realgdp |   1.35e-07   1.75e-07     0.77   0.440    -2.08e-07    4.78e-07
                   growth |   5.296154   2.168879     2.44   0.015     1.045229    9.547079
               landcontig |   .6381167   .3031415     2.11   0.035     .0439703    1.232263
                     viol |  -.1734785   .1417854    -1.22   0.221    -.4513728    .1044157
                  rivalry |  -.0349064   .1709199    -0.20   0.838    -.3699032    .3000904
                          |
                     year |
                    1952  |  -7.195524   6.699068    -1.07   0.283    -20.32546    5.934407
                    1953  |  -18.98717   7.670375    -2.48   0.013    -34.02082   -3.953507
                    1954  |  -20.90691   8.119824    -2.57   0.010    -36.82147   -4.992344
                    1955  |  -23.17905   8.091366    -2.86   0.004    -39.03784   -7.320265
                    1956  |   -17.9885   7.034759    -2.56   0.011    -31.77637   -4.200623
                    1957  |  -21.00302   6.702353    -3.13   0.002    -34.13939   -7.866649
                    1958  |  -22.30671   7.087663    -3.15   0.002    -36.19827   -8.415145
                    1959  |  -19.57794   6.927938    -2.83   0.005    -33.15645   -5.999431
                    1960  |   -19.4752   7.386791    -2.64   0.008    -33.95305   -4.997355
                    1961  |  -18.46407   7.653249    -2.41   0.016    -33.46416   -3.463974
                    1962  |   -18.6537   6.888205    -2.71   0.007    -32.15433   -5.153062
                    1963  |  -20.82565   6.985346    -2.98   0.003    -34.51668   -7.134624
                    1964  |  -19.37504   7.131467    -2.72   0.007    -33.35246   -5.397627
                    1965  |  -20.24578    6.82337    -2.97   0.003    -33.61934    -6.87222
                    1966  |  -20.20336   6.999958    -2.89   0.004    -33.92303   -6.483694
                    1967  |  -17.80205   7.441202    -2.39   0.017    -32.38653   -3.217558
                    1968  |  -20.11678   6.844221    -2.94   0.003    -33.53121   -6.702354
                    1969  |  -21.31608   6.961048    -3.06   0.002    -34.95948   -7.672678
                    1970  |  -18.96215    7.12272    -2.66   0.008    -32.92242   -5.001871
                    1971  |  -19.07648   7.195218    -2.65   0.008    -33.17885   -4.974117
                    1972  |  -19.89328   7.051715    -2.82   0.005    -33.71439   -6.072178
                    1973  |  -20.98123   6.796463    -3.09   0.002    -34.30205   -7.660403
                    1974  |  -18.31068   7.300686    -2.51   0.012    -32.61977   -4.001602
                    1975  |  -17.90413   6.707728    -2.67   0.008    -31.05104   -4.757228
                    1976  |  -21.66026   6.827762    -3.17   0.002    -35.04243   -8.278095
                    1977  |  -20.04352   7.121378    -2.81   0.005    -34.00116   -6.085874
                    1978  |  -20.22612   6.785912    -2.98   0.003    -33.52626   -6.925979
                    1979  |   -20.5175   7.140551    -2.87   0.004    -34.51272   -6.522272
                    1980  |  -20.19344   7.000851    -2.88   0.004    -33.91486   -6.472028
                    1981  |  -19.58569   7.075989    -2.77   0.006    -33.45438   -5.717009
                    1982  |  -19.15889   7.226256    -2.65   0.008     -33.3221   -4.995693
                    1983  |  -20.90192   6.866011    -3.04   0.002    -34.35906   -7.444786
                    1984  |  -20.80818   7.139588    -2.91   0.004    -34.80151    -6.81484
                    1985  |   -20.0291   6.833777    -2.93   0.003    -33.42306   -6.635143
                    1986  |  -20.63873   7.342165    -2.81   0.005    -35.02911   -6.248349
                    1987  |  -20.05614   7.018602    -2.86   0.004    -33.81235   -6.299936
                    1988  |  -20.89151   7.351875    -2.84   0.004    -35.30092   -6.482096
                    1989  |  -20.62834   6.927334    -2.98   0.003    -34.20566   -7.051012
                    1990  |  -20.32967   7.039087    -2.89   0.004    -34.12603   -6.533316
                    1991  |  -21.36756   7.122547    -3.00   0.003    -35.32749   -7.407621
                    1992  |  -20.86125   7.333516    -2.84   0.004    -35.23468   -6.487822
                    1993  |   -21.3141   6.996916    -3.05   0.002     -35.0278   -7.600397
                    1994  |  -20.96635   6.858798    -3.06   0.002    -34.40934    -7.52335
                    1995  |  -21.49533   7.247305    -2.97   0.003    -35.69979   -7.290877
                    1996  |  -20.20971   7.055503    -2.86   0.004    -34.03824   -6.381174
                    1997  |  -20.79815   7.109766    -2.93   0.003    -34.73304   -6.863265
                    1998  |  -19.88195   6.955802    -2.86   0.004    -33.51507   -6.248831
                    1999  |  -19.55244    7.21146    -2.71   0.007    -33.68665   -5.418243
                    2000  |  -20.73188    7.00431    -2.96   0.003    -34.46008   -7.003685
                    2001  |  -21.12701   6.937129    -3.05   0.002    -34.72353   -7.530486
                    2002  |  -19.61144   6.889737    -2.85   0.004    -33.11508   -6.107807
                    2003  |  -21.00185   7.099553    -2.96   0.003    -34.91672   -7.086983
                    2004  |  -20.46477   7.157946    -2.86   0.004    -34.49409   -6.435454
                    2005  |  -20.86557   7.210033    -2.89   0.004    -34.99697   -6.734164
                    2006  |  -20.67731   7.019707    -2.95   0.003    -34.43568   -6.918938
                    2007  |   -20.2853   6.820857    -2.97   0.003    -33.65393   -6.916664
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.545377   .3532679     4.37   0.000     .8529844    2.237769
                       4  |   3.533293   .3291675    10.73   0.000     2.888137     4.17845
                       5  |    .032708    .217137     0.15   0.880    -.3928727    .4582887
                          |
                    _cons |   18.94752   7.099768     2.67   0.008     5.032231    32.86281
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |   4.640174
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model6

. * Country FE
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.ccode if novdec ==0, robust cluster(ccode)
note: 740.ccode omitted because of collinearity
note: 920.ccode omitted because of collinearity

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,768
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1402                                         min =          1
     between = 1.0000                                         avg =       34.7
     overall = 0.2018                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(10)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3082594   .0568966     5.42   0.000     .1967441    .4197748
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |  -.9429827    .387964    -2.43   0.015    -1.703378   -.1825872
  visit_lameduck_official |   3.010008   3.349826     0.90   0.369     -3.55553    9.575546
                     demo |  -.3129801   .3803488    -0.82   0.411     -1.05845    .4324899
                  ln_cinc |   1.373405   .9161962     1.50   0.134    -.4223066    3.169117
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .5569205   .3694876     1.51   0.132    -.1672619    1.281103
                          |
                  realgdp |  -3.47e-07   3.81e-07    -0.91   0.362    -1.09e-06    3.99e-07
                   growth |   3.352599   1.998979     1.68   0.094    -.5653281    7.270526
               landcontig |  -2.825586   2.673445    -1.06   0.291    -8.065441     2.41427
                     viol |  -5.280072   3.932144    -1.34   0.179    -12.98693    2.426789
                  rivalry |   -.281267   .4491547    -0.63   0.531    -1.161594    .5990601
                 l_postcw |   -.685277   .2560955    -2.68   0.007    -1.187215    -.183339
                          |
                    ccode |
                      41  |   6.238686   4.147235     1.50   0.133    -1.889745    14.36712
                      42  |   4.950265   3.691142     1.34   0.180    -2.284241    12.18477
                      51  |   2.222321   1.218147     1.82   0.068     -.165204    4.609845
                      52  |   .2920065   .2570127     1.14   0.256    -.2117291    .7957422
                      70  |   4.440491   3.850629     1.15   0.249    -3.106604    11.98759
                      90  |   5.233789   3.762267     1.39   0.164     -2.14012     12.6077
                      91  |   6.255107   4.438325     1.41   0.159     -2.44385    14.95406
                      92  |   5.702549   4.098768     1.39   0.164    -2.330889    13.73599
                      93  |   6.352115   4.421396     1.44   0.151    -2.313662    15.01789
                      95  |   6.681987   4.589721     1.46   0.145    -2.313701    15.67768
                     100  |   3.006709   2.222987     1.35   0.176    -1.350266    7.363683
                     101  |   -2.51973   1.847592    -1.36   0.173    -6.140943    1.101483
                     110  |   4.568202    2.48429     1.84   0.066    -.3009165    9.437319
                     130  |  -.6488372   .6669363    -0.97   0.331    -1.956008     .658334
                     135  |   3.214121   2.527255     1.27   0.203    -1.739209     8.16745
                     140  |  -4.619094   3.349824    -1.38   0.168    -11.18463    1.946441
                     145  |   5.379277   3.689554     1.46   0.145    -1.852116    12.61067
                     150  |   5.877998   4.259046     1.38   0.168    -2.469579    14.22557
                     155  |   3.351309   2.518993     1.33   0.183    -1.585828    8.288445
                     160  |   2.029159   1.824972     1.11   0.266    -1.547719    5.606038
                     165  |   5.585629   3.997614     1.40   0.162     -2.24955    13.42081
                     200  |   1.362807     .62941     2.17   0.030     .1291863    2.596428
                     210  |   3.494775   1.850989     1.89   0.059    -.1330975    7.122647
                     211  |   3.669226   1.894771     1.94   0.053    -.0444561    7.382909
                     220  |    2.78468   .7324314     3.80   0.000     1.349141    4.220219
                     230  |   3.090888   1.416684     2.18   0.029     .3142385    5.867538
                     235  |   .7086402   1.196543     0.59   0.554    -1.636542    3.053822
                     260  |   .2378054   .4819023     0.49   0.622    -.7067057    1.182316
                     290  |   6.618947   1.849914     3.58   0.000     2.993182    10.24471
                     310  |   6.015806   3.106405     1.94   0.053    -.0726351    12.10425
                     316  |  -1.947588   1.343148    -1.45   0.147     -4.58011    .6849347
                     317  |  -.0792019   .7332607    -0.11   0.914    -1.516366    1.357963
                     325  |  -2.372065   3.109163    -0.76   0.446    -8.465912    3.721782
                     349  |   6.830762    4.53468     1.51   0.132    -2.057047    15.71857
                     350  |   5.835837   2.420258     2.41   0.016     1.092217    10.57946
                     355  |   4.677384   3.178424     1.47   0.141    -1.552212    10.90698
                     360  |   3.410389   2.441962     1.40   0.163    -1.375769    8.196547
                     366  |   2.386821    1.21056     1.97   0.049     .0141682    4.759475
                     367  |   2.467188    .761592     3.24   0.001     .9744956    3.959881
                     368  |   1.093225   .4154379     2.63   0.009      .278982    1.907469
                     385  |   1.543873   .8379692     1.84   0.065    -.0985164    3.186263
                     390  |   .8471101   .8352083     1.01   0.310    -.7898682    2.484088
                     640  |   4.724962   1.513135     3.12   0.002     1.759271    7.690653
                     713  |    1.71643   1.543166     1.11   0.266     -1.30812    4.740979
                     732  |   1.133509   1.104553     1.03   0.305    -1.031376    3.298394
                     740  |          0  (omitted)
                     770  |   -4.19032   2.743487    -1.53   0.127    -9.567455    1.186816
                     840  |  -2.832863   1.949312    -1.45   0.146    -6.653443     .987718
                     900  |   -3.14203   2.244137    -1.40   0.161    -7.540457    1.256397
                     920  |          0  (omitted)
                          |
                    _cons |   10.43468   6.963964     1.50   0.134    -3.214441     24.0838
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.9564404
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model7

. * Additional controls
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry nukes_us_b affinity_us l_postcw i.region if novdec ==0, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,768
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1401                                         min =          1
     between = 0.7163                                         avg =       34.7
     overall = 0.1957                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(17)     =   30464.17
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3168156   .0553529     5.72   0.000     .2083258    .4253053
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |  -.9565667    .365325    -2.62   0.009    -1.672591   -.2405428
  visit_lameduck_official |   2.981727     3.2556     0.92   0.360    -3.399133    9.362586
                     demo |   .0282767   .2414602     0.12   0.907    -.4449767    .5015301
                  ln_cinc |  -.0315895   .0975186    -0.32   0.746    -.2227225    .1595435
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .6055366   .3571232     1.70   0.090     -.094412    1.305485
                          |
                  realgdp |  -2.71e-07   2.88e-07    -0.94   0.347    -8.34e-07    2.93e-07
                   growth |   3.006977   1.829131     1.64   0.100    -.5780543    6.592009
               landcontig |   .6036619   .2524637     2.39   0.017     .1088422    1.098482
                     viol |  -.2024785   .1138648    -1.78   0.075    -.4256494    .0206924
                  rivalry |   .0057205   .1893042     0.03   0.976     -.365309    .3767499
               nukes_us_b |  -.4359612   .4294179    -1.02   0.310    -1.277605    .4056825
            affinity_us_b |   .7342667   .3241806     2.26   0.024     .0988844    1.369649
                 l_postcw |  -.2920908   .2201867    -1.33   0.185    -.7236487    .1394672
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |    1.69036   .3267924     5.17   0.000     1.049859    2.330862
                       4  |   3.290146   .5024843     6.55   0.000     2.305294    4.274997
                       5  |  -.0007849   .2169916    -0.00   0.997    -.4260807     .424511
                          |
                    _cons |  -.0616194   .6868427    -0.09   0.929    -1.407806    1.284568
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.9479096
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model8

. 
. esttab using table5.tex, replace label se nodepvars booktabs alignment(l) width(0.8\hsize) ///
> b(3)  addn(Robust standard errors are clustered by countries and in parentheses.) /// 
> star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** .01 *** .001) stats(N r2, label("N Obs." "Overall $R^2$")) nogaps scalars("N Obs." "R squared
> " ) ///
> title(Excluding November and December visits\label{reg5})
(output written to table5.tex)

. 
. 
. ***Table 5: Placebo test with non-allies***
. use visit_milspending-placebo, clear

. 
. **Model 1-4: Last years both terms
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear visit_lastyear demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp growth landcontig v
> iol rivalry l_postcw i.region if pact_us_b==0, robust cluster(ccode)
note: 5.region omitted because of collinearity

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =        449
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         15

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1156                                         min =          1
     between = 0.0647                                         avg =       29.9
     overall = 0.1064                                         max =         53

                                                Wald chi2(12)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                     (Std. Err. adjusted for 15 clusters in ccode)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
     defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     defspend_ch |
             L1. |  -.2270551   .0374506    -6.06   0.000    -.3004569   -.1536532
                 |
visit_nolastyear |  -1.855523   1.533014    -1.21   0.226    -4.860176    1.149129
  visit_lastyear |   5.488616    2.71446     2.02   0.043     .1683717    10.80886
            demo |  -1.559314   1.064986    -1.46   0.143    -3.646649    .5280208
         ln_cinc |  -.0334682   .3262212    -0.10   0.918      -.67285    .6059135
                 |
        midcount |
             L1. |  -.2749001   .3870972    -0.71   0.478    -1.033597    .4837965
                 |
         realgdp |   1.06e-06   9.62e-07     1.10   0.272    -8.28e-07    2.94e-06
          growth |   6.142566   3.401749     1.81   0.071    -.5247404    12.80987
      landcontig |          0  (omitted)
            viol |  -.1030758    .351218    -0.29   0.769    -.7914504    .5852987
         rivalry |   .1254986   1.254784     0.10   0.920    -2.333833    2.584831
        l_postcw |  -.2586218    .605866    -0.43   0.669    -1.446097    .9288537
                 |
          region |
              1  |          0  (empty)
              2  |   2.358021   2.498243     0.94   0.345    -2.538446    7.254487
              4  |          0  (empty)
              5  |          0  (omitted)
                 |
           _cons |  -.0134881   3.043371    -0.00   0.996    -5.978386    5.951409
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |          0
         sigma_e |  5.3061577
             rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model1

. * Year FE
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear visit_lastyear demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp growth landcontig v
> iol rivalry i.year i.region if pact_us_b==0, robust cluster(ccode)
note: 5.region omitted because of collinearity

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =        449
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         15

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.2781                                         min =          1
     between = 0.1910                                         avg =       29.9
     overall = 0.2780                                         max =         53

                                                Wald chi2(14)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                     (Std. Err. adjusted for 15 clusters in ccode)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
     defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     defspend_ch |
             L1. |   -.255864   .0495502    -5.16   0.000    -.3529806   -.1587475
                 |
visit_nolastyear |  -2.524134    1.88925    -1.34   0.182    -6.226996    1.178729
  visit_lastyear |   5.988204   3.274419     1.83   0.067    -.4295383    12.40595
            demo |  -1.638978   1.048638    -1.56   0.118    -3.694269    .4163142
         ln_cinc |   -.041798   .3568638    -0.12   0.907    -.7412382    .6576421
                 |
        midcount |
             L1. |  -.2893226   .5010526    -0.58   0.564    -1.271368    .6927225
                 |
         realgdp |   1.43e-06   1.28e-06     1.12   0.264    -1.08e-06    3.94e-06
          growth |   8.800197   4.851846     1.81   0.070    -.7092469    18.30964
      landcontig |          0  (omitted)
            viol |   .2005638   .4275065     0.47   0.639    -.6373335    1.038461
         rivalry |  -.5764234   1.333114    -0.43   0.665    -3.189279    2.036432
                 |
            year |
           1952  |    33.5021   .6608184    50.70   0.000     32.20692    34.79728
           1953  |    13.4289   2.400955     5.59   0.000     8.723114    18.13468
           1954  |   10.72495   2.467148     4.35   0.000     5.889427    15.56047
           1955  |   14.41752   2.606463     5.53   0.000     9.308943    19.52609
           1956  |   14.87589   2.839939     5.24   0.000      9.30971    20.44207
           1957  |   13.23901   2.466337     5.37   0.000     8.405075    18.07294
           1958  |   7.601811   2.263878     3.36   0.001     3.164691    12.03893
           1959  |   8.751696   1.257248     6.96   0.000     6.287536    11.21586
           1960  |    14.8978   5.016432     2.97   0.003     5.065774    24.72982
           1961  |   11.43923   2.004728     5.71   0.000     7.510032    15.36842
           1962  |   14.66307   5.104225     2.87   0.004     4.658973    24.66717
           1963  |   10.47873   1.416267     7.40   0.000     7.702896    13.25456
           1964  |   13.25445   3.208591     4.13   0.000     6.965724    19.54317
           1965  |   11.30393   1.820696     6.21   0.000     7.735432    14.87243
           1966  |   14.53879   4.590189     3.17   0.002     5.542188     23.5354
           1967  |   11.82597   2.371327     4.99   0.000     7.178251    16.47368
           1968  |   17.45468   6.682605     2.61   0.009     4.357015    30.55235
           1969  |   15.63197   5.751945     2.72   0.007     4.358364    26.90557
           1970  |    12.1496   2.337935     5.20   0.000     7.567332    16.73187
           1971  |   10.08406   1.407106     7.17   0.000     7.326178    12.84193
           1972  |   12.77263   3.225048     3.96   0.000     6.451647     19.0936
           1973  |   10.47491   1.337286     7.83   0.000     7.853879    13.09595
           1974  |     12.456   2.363871     5.27   0.000     7.822901     17.0891
           1975  |   11.27216   1.822614     6.18   0.000     7.699906    14.84442
           1976  |   10.03259    2.30632     4.35   0.000     5.512282    14.55289
           1977  |   11.53106    1.49843     7.70   0.000      8.59419    14.46793
           1978  |   11.98752   2.566149     4.67   0.000     6.957961    17.01708
           1979  |   11.53066   2.219146     5.20   0.000     7.181212    15.88011
           1980  |   10.40796   1.967844     5.29   0.000     6.551057    14.26487
           1981  |   10.77119   1.552016     6.94   0.000      7.72929    13.81308
           1982  |   11.40368    1.44556     7.89   0.000     8.570429    14.23692
           1983  |   9.579027   2.065922     4.64   0.000     5.529893    13.62816
           1984  |   10.74599   1.308141     8.21   0.000     8.182083     13.3099
           1985  |   17.14011   6.446259     2.66   0.008     4.505671    29.77454
           1986  |   8.987786   1.976726     4.55   0.000     5.113473     12.8621
           1987  |   9.452473   1.565983     6.04   0.000     6.383203    12.52174
           1988  |   12.03442   2.438608     4.93   0.000     7.254833      16.814
           1989  |   7.114629   2.720887     2.61   0.009     1.781788    12.44747
           1990  |   8.958028   1.642277     5.45   0.000     5.739224    12.17683
           1991  |   5.856875   3.461803     1.69   0.091    -.9281336    12.64188
           1992  |   8.815875   1.906283     4.62   0.000      5.07963    12.55212
           1993  |   8.963313   1.895268     4.73   0.000     5.248656    12.67797
           1994  |   10.26325   1.365261     7.52   0.000      7.58739    12.93911
           1995  |   8.877995   1.405047     6.32   0.000     6.124154    11.63184
           1996  |   9.800996   1.275127     7.69   0.000     7.301792     12.3002
           1997  |   12.03058   2.366008     5.08   0.000      7.39329    16.66787
           1998  |   12.19567   1.968822     6.19   0.000     8.336853    16.05449
           1999  |      10.97   1.763275     6.22   0.000     7.514045    14.42596
           2000  |   10.88642   1.805049     6.03   0.000      7.34859    14.42425
           2001  |   10.50398   1.922634     5.46   0.000     6.735687    14.27227
           2002  |   10.83821   1.738923     6.23   0.000     7.429981    14.24643
           2003  |   11.10022   1.746201     6.36   0.000     7.677728    14.52271
           2004  |   11.85356   2.229189     5.32   0.000     7.484433    16.22269
           2005  |   10.17778   1.640476     6.20   0.000     6.962507    13.39306
           2006  |   10.50923   1.705231     6.16   0.000     7.167043    13.85143
           2007  |   11.47049   1.921989     5.97   0.000     7.703458    15.23752
                 |
          region |
              1  |          0  (empty)
              2  |   1.793137   2.409843     0.74   0.457    -2.930068    6.516342
              4  |          0  (empty)
              5  |          0  (omitted)
                 |
           _cons |  -10.87147   3.630753    -2.99   0.003    -17.98761    -3.75532
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |          0
         sigma_e |  5.0762564
             rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model2

. * Country FE
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear visit_lastyear demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp growth landcontig v
> iol rivalry i.ccode if pact_us_b==0, robust cluster(ccode)
note: 850.ccode omitted because of collinearity
note: 950.ccode omitted because of collinearity

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =        449
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         15

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1343                                         min =          1
     between = 1.0000                                         avg =       29.9
     overall = 0.2021                                         max =         53

                                                Wald chi2(9)      =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                     (Std. Err. adjusted for 15 clusters in ccode)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
     defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     defspend_ch |
             L1. |  -.3002332   .0423312    -7.09   0.000    -.3832008   -.2172656
                 |
visit_nolastyear |  -1.484467   1.452327    -1.02   0.307    -4.330976    1.362041
  visit_lastyear |   6.111382   3.134144     1.95   0.051    -.0314286    12.25419
            demo |  -1.634215    1.10858    -1.47   0.140    -3.806993    .5385625
         ln_cinc |   .4795568   .6647121     0.72   0.471    -.8232549    1.782369
                 |
        midcount |
             L1. |  -.2908566   .3645883    -0.80   0.425    -1.005436    .4237233
                 |
         realgdp |   3.10e-07   5.74e-07     0.54   0.589    -8.15e-07    1.44e-06
          growth |   5.068617   2.666968     1.90   0.057     -.158545    10.29578
      landcontig |          0  (omitted)
            viol |  -2.459399   3.187573    -0.77   0.440    -8.706927    3.788128
         rivalry |  -3.001633   2.806415    -1.07   0.285    -8.502105    2.498838
                 |
           ccode |
             20  |          0  (empty)
            200  |          0  (empty)
            210  |          0  (empty)
            211  |          0  (empty)
            220  |          0  (empty)
            230  |   9.400935   1.515046     6.21   0.000       6.4315    12.37037
            235  |          0  (empty)
            290  |  -.1637561   .9712149    -0.17   0.866    -2.067302     1.73979
            310  |  -.5896906   .9986122    -0.59   0.555    -2.546935    1.367553
            316  |  -1.883573   2.354963    -0.80   0.424    -6.499215    2.732069
            325  |          0  (empty)
            350  |          0  (empty)
            385  |          0  (empty)
            390  |          0  (empty)
            640  |          0  (empty)
            713  |   2.839428   2.427629     1.17   0.242    -1.918637    7.597494
            732  |          0  (empty)
            740  |          0  (empty)
            750  |  -.1905894   3.678646    -0.05   0.959    -7.400604    7.019425
            770  |  -3.427941   3.646104    -0.94   0.347    -10.57417    3.718293
            775  |   .1313703   2.523216     0.05   0.958    -4.814042    5.076783
            800  |   2.599852   2.398496     1.08   0.278    -2.101114    7.300817
            816  |  -1.043233   .8915411    -1.17   0.242    -2.790622     .704155
            820  |   .2880382   2.289194     0.13   0.900    -4.198699    4.774776
            830  |  -2.968162   2.678727    -1.11   0.268    -8.218371    2.282047
            840  |          0  (empty)
            850  |          0  (omitted)
            900  |          0  (empty)
            920  |  -.6830522   1.561748    -0.44   0.662    -3.744022    2.377918
            950  |          0  (omitted)
                 |
           _cons |   5.582061   6.678929     0.84   0.403    -7.508399    18.67252
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |          0
         sigma_e |  5.3000757
             rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model3

. * Additional controls
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear visit_lastyear demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp growth landcontig v
> iol rivalry nukes_us_b affinity_us l_postcw i.region if pact_us_b==0, robust cluster(ccode)
note: 5.region omitted because of collinearity

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =        449
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         15

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1120                                         min =          1
     between = 0.6961                                         avg =       29.9
     overall = 0.1610                                         max =         53

                                                Wald chi2(14)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                     (Std. Err. adjusted for 15 clusters in ccode)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
     defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     defspend_ch |
             L1. |   -.267624    .037144    -7.21   0.000    -.3404248   -.1948232
                 |
visit_nolastyear |  -2.077421   1.661163    -1.25   0.211    -5.333241    1.178398
  visit_lastyear |   5.315445   2.655698     2.00   0.045     .1103733    10.52052
            demo |  -1.216448   .9194676    -1.32   0.186    -3.018571    .5856757
         ln_cinc |   .1715714   .2510161     0.68   0.494    -.3204111    .6635539
                 |
        midcount |
             L1. |  -.3526043   .3934881    -0.90   0.370    -1.123827    .4186182
                 |
         realgdp |   6.50e-07   6.56e-07     0.99   0.322    -6.35e-07    1.93e-06
          growth |   5.466945   2.868076     1.91   0.057    -.1543802    11.08827
      landcontig |          0  (omitted)
            viol |  -.2249199   .3690251    -0.61   0.542    -.9481958    .4983559
         rivalry |  -.9809913   1.148747    -0.85   0.393    -3.232493    1.270511
      nukes_us_b |   7.874936   1.813165     4.34   0.000     4.321199    11.42867
   affinity_us_b |   .3922773   .4420316     0.89   0.375    -.4740888    1.258643
        l_postcw |  -.1153806    .558657    -0.21   0.836    -1.210328    .9795669
                 |
          region |
              1  |          0  (empty)
              2  |   .2831508   1.720404     0.16   0.869     -3.08878    3.655081
              4  |          0  (empty)
              5  |          0  (omitted)
                 |
           _cons |   1.956989   2.573789     0.76   0.447    -3.087546    7.001524
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |          0
         sigma_e |  5.2952287
             rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model4

. **Model 5-8: Last years in second term only
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck visit_lameduck demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp growth landcontig v
> iol rivalry l_postcw i.region if pact_us_b==0, robust cluster(ccode)
note: 5.region omitted because of collinearity

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =        449
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         15

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.0893                                         min =          1
     between = 0.0540                                         avg =       29.9
     overall = 0.0827                                         max =         53

                                                Wald chi2(12)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                     (Std. Err. adjusted for 15 clusters in ccode)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
     defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     defspend_ch |
             L1. |  -.2282937   .0377562    -6.05   0.000    -.3022944   -.1542929
                 |
visit_nolameduck |   .0125504   .6960267     0.02   0.986    -1.351637    1.376738
  visit_lameduck |  -.7407903   .9253456    -0.80   0.423    -2.554434    1.072854
            demo |  -1.629087   1.105087    -1.47   0.140    -3.795017     .536843
         ln_cinc |  -.0410646   .3252765    -0.13   0.900    -.6785948    .5964655
                 |
        midcount |
             L1. |   -.158024   .3581464    -0.44   0.659    -.8599779      .54393
                 |
         realgdp |   1.10e-06   9.51e-07     1.16   0.248    -7.65e-07    2.96e-06
          growth |   5.156949   3.266786     1.58   0.114    -1.245835    11.55973
      landcontig |          0  (omitted)
            viol |  -.1005667   .3613088    -0.28   0.781     -.808719    .6075855
         rivalry |    .114004   1.194012     0.10   0.924    -2.226217    2.454225
        l_postcw |  -.2028197   .5689271    -0.36   0.721    -1.317896    .9122569
                 |
          region |
              1  |          0  (empty)
              2  |   2.526789   2.455153     1.03   0.303    -2.285222      7.3388
              4  |          0  (empty)
              5  |          0  (omitted)
                 |
           _cons |  -.0638839   2.998023    -0.02   0.983    -5.939902    5.812134
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |          0
         sigma_e |  5.3887932
             rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model5

. * Year FE
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck visit_lameduck demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp growth landcontig v
> iol rivalry i.year i.region if pact_us_b==0, robust cluster(ccode)
note: 5.region omitted because of collinearity

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =        449
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         15

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.2520                                         min =          1
     between = 0.1667                                         avg =       29.9
     overall = 0.2535                                         max =         53

                                                Wald chi2(14)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                     (Std. Err. adjusted for 15 clusters in ccode)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
     defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     defspend_ch |
             L1. |  -.2556776   .0479016    -5.34   0.000     -.349563   -.1617921
                 |
visit_nolameduck |  -.0832138   .8465243    -0.10   0.922    -1.742371    1.575943
  visit_lameduck |  -1.724095   1.453645    -1.19   0.236    -4.573188    1.124997
            demo |  -1.717536   1.095797    -1.57   0.117    -3.865259    .4301875
         ln_cinc |  -.0689709   .3392416    -0.20   0.839    -.7338722    .5959303
                 |
        midcount |
             L1. |  -.1486924   .4762138    -0.31   0.755    -1.082054    .7846694
                 |
         realgdp |   1.57e-06   1.28e-06     1.22   0.221    -9.41e-07    4.07e-06
          growth |   8.065863   4.770208     1.69   0.091    -1.283573     17.4153
      landcontig |          0  (omitted)
            viol |   .1962424   .4307261     0.46   0.649    -.6479651     1.04045
         rivalry |  -.5282072   1.262156    -0.42   0.676    -3.001987    1.945573
                 |
            year |
           1952  |   33.40433   .6472477    51.61   0.000     32.13574    34.67291
           1953  |   13.35696   2.312939     5.77   0.000     8.823684    17.89024
           1954  |   10.49367   2.373753     4.42   0.000     5.841197    15.14614
           1955  |   14.37928   2.559456     5.62   0.000     9.362841    19.39573
           1956  |   14.79529   2.749625     5.38   0.000     9.406127    20.18446
           1957  |   13.21293   2.348173     5.63   0.000     8.610594    17.81526
           1958  |   7.470238   2.349871     3.18   0.001     2.864576     12.0759
           1959  |   8.701965    1.23514     7.05   0.000     6.281135    11.12279
           1960  |   13.83655   4.326856     3.20   0.001     5.356063    22.31703
           1961  |   11.38626   1.959758     5.81   0.000     7.545201    15.22731
           1962  |   14.60756   5.020623     2.91   0.004     4.767315     24.4478
           1963  |    10.4038   1.311698     7.93   0.000     7.832917    12.97468
           1964  |   13.17491   3.162505     4.17   0.000     6.976512     19.3733
           1965  |   11.21153   1.738029     6.45   0.000     7.805061    14.61801
           1966  |   14.44177   4.545281     3.18   0.001     5.533181    23.35036
           1967  |   10.77079   1.611739     6.68   0.000     7.611842    13.92974
           1968  |    16.8875   6.618018     2.55   0.011     3.916425    29.85858
           1969  |    15.5154   5.684982     2.73   0.006     4.373038    26.65776
           1970  |   11.13513   1.984666     5.61   0.000     7.245258    15.02501
           1971  |    9.53422   1.140474     8.36   0.000     7.298931    11.76951
           1972  |   12.69605   3.181372     3.99   0.000     6.460675    18.93142
           1973  |   11.19649   1.376854     8.13   0.000     8.497909    13.89508
           1974  |    12.3888   2.313639     5.35   0.000     7.854155    16.92345
           1975  |   11.20372   1.736262     6.45   0.000     7.800706    14.60673
           1976  |   11.74024    2.54492     4.61   0.000     6.752287    16.72819
           1977  |   11.48957   1.504346     7.64   0.000     8.541102    14.43803
           1978  |   11.69418   2.477665     4.72   0.000     6.838051    16.55032
           1979  |   11.23502   2.140197     5.25   0.000     7.040313    15.42973
           1980  |    10.3248   1.943747     5.31   0.000     6.515131    14.13448
           1981  |   10.67727   1.494793     7.14   0.000     7.747529    13.60701
           1982  |   11.34064   1.484054     7.64   0.000     8.431951    14.24934
           1983  |   9.496173   1.979728     4.80   0.000     5.615978    13.37637
           1984  |   10.65582   1.346496     7.91   0.000     8.016739    13.29491
           1985  |   17.03029     6.3329     2.69   0.007     4.618032    29.44254
           1986  |   8.888711   2.094936     4.24   0.000     4.782711    12.99471
           1987  |   9.174004   1.585233     5.79   0.000     6.067004      12.281
           1988  |   11.90273   2.311032     5.15   0.000     7.373185    16.43227
           1989  |   7.062427   2.722054     2.59   0.009       1.7273    12.39755
           1990  |   8.505199   2.003405     4.25   0.000     4.578597     12.4318
           1991  |   5.775223   3.458601     1.67   0.095    -1.003511    12.55396
           1992  |   8.771173   1.862699     4.71   0.000     5.120349      12.422
           1993  |   9.934399   1.633394     6.08   0.000     6.733005    13.13579
           1994  |    10.2503   1.376252     7.45   0.000       7.5529    12.94771
           1995  |   8.004046   1.849713     4.33   0.000     4.378675    11.62942
           1996  |   9.708792   1.284742     7.56   0.000     7.190744    12.22684
           1997  |   12.94312   3.182175     4.07   0.000     6.706168    19.18006
           1998  |   11.88611   1.816205     6.54   0.000     8.326415    15.44581
           1999  |    10.9644   1.755293     6.25   0.000     7.524093    14.40472
           2000  |   10.61418    1.69077     6.28   0.000     7.300329    13.92803
           2001  |   11.31101   1.911244     5.92   0.000     7.565046    15.05698
           2002  |   10.78155   1.704566     6.33   0.000     7.440657    14.12243
           2003  |   11.01184   1.686367     6.53   0.000     7.706621    14.31706
           2004  |   10.91728   1.768033     6.17   0.000     7.452001    14.38256
           2005  |   10.12101   1.560683     6.48   0.000     7.062127    13.17989
           2006  |   10.36549    1.61362     6.42   0.000     7.202854    13.52813
           2007  |   10.31618   1.683667     6.13   0.000     7.016255    13.61611
                 |
          region |
              1  |          0  (empty)
              2  |   1.936601   2.399395     0.81   0.420    -2.766126    6.639328
              4  |          0  (empty)
              5  |          0  (omitted)
                 |
           _cons |  -11.01045   3.640944    -3.02   0.002    -18.14657   -3.874332
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |          0
         sigma_e |  5.1676626
             rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model6

. * Country FE
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck visit_lameduck demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp growth landcontig v
> iol rivalry i.ccode if pact_us_b==0, robust cluster(ccode)
note: 850.ccode omitted because of collinearity
note: 950.ccode omitted because of collinearity

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =        449
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         15

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1071                                         min =          1
     between = 1.0000                                         avg =       29.9
     overall = 0.1770                                         max =         53

                                                Wald chi2(8)      =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                     (Std. Err. adjusted for 15 clusters in ccode)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
     defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     defspend_ch |
             L1. |  -.3013493   .0435725    -6.92   0.000    -.3867497   -.2159488
                 |
visit_nolameduck |   .4465906   .7545676     0.59   0.554    -1.032335    1.925516
  visit_lameduck |  -.2621627   .4602193    -0.57   0.569    -1.164176    .6398505
            demo |  -1.625838   1.103766    -1.47   0.141     -3.78918    .5375041
         ln_cinc |   .6337346   .7431446     0.85   0.394    -.8228019    2.090271
                 |
        midcount |
             L1. |  -.1636367   .3323496    -0.49   0.622    -.8150299    .4877566
                 |
         realgdp |   3.72e-07   5.64e-07     0.66   0.509    -7.32e-07    1.48e-06
          growth |    4.02303   2.752481     1.46   0.144    -1.371733    9.417794
      landcontig |          0  (omitted)
            viol |  -3.416032   3.631836    -0.94   0.347     -10.5343    3.702235
         rivalry |  -2.922662   2.592424    -1.13   0.260    -8.003719    2.158396
                 |
           ccode |
             20  |          0  (empty)
            200  |          0  (empty)
            210  |          0  (empty)
            211  |          0  (empty)
            220  |          0  (empty)
            230  |   9.579291   1.480851     6.47   0.000     6.676876    12.48171
            235  |          0  (empty)
            290  |   .3264612   .7346804     0.44   0.657    -1.113486    1.766408
            310  |  -.1869768   1.155827    -0.16   0.871    -2.452357    2.078403
            316  |  -3.007946    2.71006    -1.11   0.267    -8.319565    2.303673
            325  |          0  (empty)
            350  |          0  (empty)
            385  |          0  (empty)
            390  |          0  (empty)
            640  |          0  (empty)
            713  |   2.932284   2.350049     1.25   0.212    -1.673727    7.538296
            732  |          0  (empty)
            740  |          0  (empty)
            750  |  -1.468687   3.948332    -0.37   0.710    -9.207274    6.269901
            770  |   -4.22391    4.04554    -1.04   0.296    -12.15302    3.705204
            775  |  -.5696031   2.591106    -0.22   0.826    -5.648078    4.508871
            800  |   2.773311   2.351113     1.18   0.238    -1.834785    7.381407
            816  |  -1.018208   .8491815    -1.20   0.231    -2.682573    .6461573
            820  |  -.3644756   2.322005    -0.16   0.875    -4.915521     4.18657
            830  |   -3.40928   2.935131    -1.16   0.245    -9.162031    2.343471
            840  |          0  (empty)
            850  |          0  (omitted)
            900  |          0  (empty)
            920  |  -1.175309   1.762082    -0.67   0.505    -4.628926    2.278308
            950  |          0  (omitted)
                 |
           _cons |   7.080465    7.43985     0.95   0.341    -7.501374     21.6623
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |          0
         sigma_e |  5.3826379
             rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model7

. * Additional controls
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck visit_lameduck demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp growth landcontig v
> iol rivalry nukes_us_b affinity_us l_postcw i.region if pact_us_b==0, robust cluster(ccode)
note: 5.region omitted because of collinearity

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =        449
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         15

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.0862                                         min =          1
     between = 0.6623                                         avg =       29.9
     overall = 0.1370                                         max =         53

                                                Wald chi2(13)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                     (Std. Err. adjusted for 15 clusters in ccode)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 |               Robust
     defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     defspend_ch |
             L1. |  -.2686611   .0386647    -6.95   0.000    -.3444425   -.1928796
                 |
visit_nolameduck |  -.2080533   .8256923    -0.25   0.801     -1.82638    1.410274
  visit_lameduck |  -.4749654    .587193    -0.81   0.419    -1.625843    .6759118
            demo |   -1.31663   .9829374    -1.34   0.180    -3.243152    .6098922
         ln_cinc |   .1648925   .2461527     0.67   0.503    -.3175579    .6473428
                 |
        midcount |
             L1. |  -.2249241   .3276576    -0.69   0.492    -.8671213     .417273
                 |
         realgdp |   7.10e-07   6.56e-07     1.08   0.279    -5.76e-07    2.00e-06
          growth |   4.441467   2.762574     1.61   0.108    -.9730784    9.856012
      landcontig |          0  (omitted)
            viol |  -.2336913   .3923918    -0.60   0.551    -1.002765    .5353825
         rivalry |  -1.010599   1.103571    -0.92   0.360    -3.173559    1.152362
      nukes_us_b |   7.788375   1.763587     4.42   0.000     4.331808    11.24494
   affinity_us_b |   .4997073    .487629     1.02   0.305    -.4560281    1.455443
        l_postcw |  -.0433428   .5270601    -0.08   0.934    -1.076361     .989676
                 |
          region |
              1  |          0  (empty)
              2  |   .4540587     1.6595     0.27   0.784    -2.798502    3.706619
              4  |          0  (empty)
              5  |          0  (omitted)
                 |
           _cons |   1.943191   2.502767     0.78   0.438    -2.962141    6.848523
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         sigma_u |          0
         sigma_e |  5.3811995
             rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model8

. 
. esttab using table6.tex, replace label se nodepvars booktabs alignment(l) width(0.8\hsize) ///
> b(a3)  addn(Robust standard errors are clustered by countries and in parentheses.) /// 
> star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** .01 *** .001) stats(N r2, label("N Obs." "Overall $R^2$")) nogaps scalars("N Obs." "R squared
> " ) ///
> title(Placebo test: Pre-alliance periods\label{reg6})
(output written to table6.tex)

. 
. 
. ** Table 6: Defense spending trend and presidential visits
. use visit_milspending_final, clear

. 
. * Lagged DV
. logit vis_us_b1 L2.defspend_ch i.region i.year, robust cluster(ccode)

note: 1952.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1952.year dropped and 7 obs not used

note: 1953.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1953.year dropped and 14 obs not used

note: 1955.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1955.year dropped and 16 obs not used

note: 1956.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1956.year dropped and 19 obs not used

note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 19 obs not used

note: 1966.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1966.year dropped and 31 obs not used

note: 1974.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1974.year dropped and 33 obs not used

note: 1977.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1977.year dropped and 35 obs not used

note: 2007.year omitted because of collinearity
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -692.90258  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -632.09116  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -625.06177  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -624.93233  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -624.93184  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -624.93184  

Logistic regression                             Number of obs     =      1,617
                                                Wald chi2(45)     =          .
                                                Prob > chi2       =          .
Log pseudolikelihood = -624.93184               Pseudo R2         =     0.0981

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 52 clusters in ccode)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
   vis_us_b1 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 defspend_ch |
         L2. |  -.0234022   .0224149    -1.04   0.296    -.0673345    .0205301
             |
      region |
          2  |   1.078958   .5221404     2.07   0.039      .055582    2.102335
          4  |  -.0994473   .4219231    -0.24   0.814    -.9264014    .7275068
          5  |   .6499736   .4892266     1.33   0.184    -.3088929     1.60884
             |
        year |
       1952  |          0  (empty)
       1953  |          0  (empty)
       1954  |   .3143367     .74547     0.42   0.673    -1.146758    1.775431
       1955  |          0  (empty)
       1956  |          0  (empty)
       1957  |          0  (empty)
       1958  |  -1.107503   1.145265    -0.97   0.334    -3.352182    1.137176
       1959  |  -1.212751   1.138637    -1.07   0.287    -3.444438    1.018936
       1960  |   1.149646   .5967838     1.93   0.054    -.0200285    2.319321
       1961  |   1.060303   .6027158     1.76   0.079    -.1209981    2.241605
       1962  |   .4606952   .6993375     0.66   0.510    -.9099811    1.831371
       1963  |  -1.339015   .9396303    -1.43   0.154    -3.180657    .5026261
       1964  |  -.1520453   .7718569    -0.20   0.844    -1.664857    1.360766
       1965  |  -1.397373   1.118337    -1.25   0.211    -3.589275    .7945276
       1966  |          0  (empty)
       1967  |   .6191952   .5799773     1.07   0.286    -.5175395     1.75593
       1968  |   .6188434   .5135565     1.21   0.228    -.3877088    1.625396
       1969  |  -.1552957   .7891361    -0.20   0.844    -1.701974    1.391383
       1970  |   1.017279    .533413     1.91   0.057    -.0281916    2.062749
       1971  |   .0484287   .6550721     0.07   0.941    -1.235489    1.332347
       1972  |  -1.404687   1.123952    -1.25   0.211    -3.607594    .7982185
       1973  |  -1.405352   1.092641    -1.29   0.198    -3.546888    .7361841
       1974  |          0  (empty)
       1975  |   .4958089    .593952     0.83   0.404    -.6683157    1.659933
       1976  |   .3313423   .6822855     0.49   0.627    -1.005913    1.668597
       1977  |          0  (empty)
       1978  |  -1.501342    1.13763    -1.32   0.187    -3.731056    .7283718
       1979  |   .2528189    .692917     0.36   0.715    -1.105274    1.610911
       1980  |  -.0027543    .626907    -0.00   0.996    -1.231469    1.225961
       1981  |  -.3043587   .7717965    -0.39   0.693    -1.817052    1.208335
       1982  |  -.7226318   .7441327    -0.97   0.331    -2.181105    .7358415
       1983  |   .8901792   .5941443     1.50   0.134    -.2743222    2.054681
       1984  |  -.3068141   .6504076    -0.47   0.637     -1.58159    .9679615
       1985  |  -.7978076   .8988275    -0.89   0.375    -2.559477     .963862
       1986  |   .4539474   .6539142     0.69   0.488    -.8277009    1.735596
       1987  |  -.7466109   .7347952    -1.02   0.310    -2.186783    .6935613
       1988  |  -.3178672   .7715977    -0.41   0.680    -1.830171    1.194436
       1989  |   .0446627   .6211214     0.07   0.943    -1.172713    1.262038
       1990  |   .9450318   .6435784     1.47   0.142    -.3163587    2.206422
       1991  |   1.206135   .5933602     2.03   0.042     .0431708      2.3691
       1992  |   1.024085   .6488202     1.58   0.114    -.2475794    2.295749
       1993  |   .1918324   .6315058     0.30   0.761    -1.045896    1.429561
       1994  |  -.0765095   .7507677    -0.10   0.919    -1.547987    1.394968
       1995  |   .3950862   .6479625     0.61   0.542     -.874897    1.665069
       1996  |   .2170887   .6402916     0.34   0.735     -1.03786    1.472037
       1997  |   .4484638    .704598     0.64   0.524    -.9325229     1.82945
       1998  |   1.313747   .5927926     2.22   0.027     .1518948    2.475599
       1999  |   .2539617   .6353922     0.40   0.689    -.9913842    1.499308
       2000  |    1.46673   .5467396     2.68   0.007     .3951397    2.538319
       2001  |   .5840559   .5509876     1.06   0.289      -.49586    1.663972
       2002  |   .5467697   .6066989     0.90   0.367    -.6423384    1.735878
       2003  |   .9766909   .5462625     1.79   0.074    -.0939639    2.047346
       2004  |   .5040578   .6701175     0.75   0.452    -.8093482    1.817464
       2005  |   .4753095   .6158242     0.77   0.440    -.7316837    1.682303
       2006  |   .9542583   .6043096     1.58   0.114    -.2301668    2.138683
       2007  |          0  (omitted)
             |
       _cons |  -2.561392   .6297371    -4.07   0.000    -3.795654    -1.32713
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. * Past 2 years average
. logit vis_us_b1 dstrend_2 i.region i.year, robust cluster(ccode)

note: 1953.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1953.year dropped and 7 obs not used

note: 1955.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1955.year dropped and 15 obs not used

note: 1956.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1956.year dropped and 16 obs not used

note: 1957.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1957.year dropped and 19 obs not used

note: 1966.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1966.year dropped and 31 obs not used

note: 1974.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1974.year dropped and 33 obs not used

note: 1977.year != 0 predicts failure perfectly
      1977.year dropped and 35 obs not used

note: 2007.year omitted because of collinearity
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =   -684.643  
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -623.93212  
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -616.8841  
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -616.75702  
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -616.75652  
Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = -616.75652  

Logistic regression                             Number of obs     =      1,588
                                                Wald chi2(43)     =          .
                                                Prob > chi2       =          .
Log pseudolikelihood = -616.75652               Pseudo R2         =     0.0992

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 45 clusters in ccode)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
   vis_us_b1 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   dstrend_2 |  -.0276178    .036544    -0.76   0.450    -.0992427     .044007
             |
      region |
          2  |   1.067982   .5361237     1.99   0.046     .0171993    2.118766
          4  |    -.12459   .4415034    -0.28   0.778    -.9899209    .7407408
          5  |    .615352   .4911764     1.25   0.210    -.3473359     1.57804
             |
        year |
       1953  |          0  (empty)
       1954  |   .6203507   .6546053     0.95   0.343    -.6626521    1.903354
       1955  |          0  (empty)
       1956  |          0  (empty)
       1957  |          0  (empty)
       1958  |  -.8510973    1.17136    -0.73   0.467    -3.146921    1.444726
       1959  |  -.9292678   1.169962    -0.79   0.427     -3.22235    1.363815
       1960  |   1.441028   .6413396     2.25   0.025      .184025     2.69803
       1961  |   1.165492   .6544688     1.78   0.075    -.1172433    2.448227
       1962  |   .6120421   .7511642     0.81   0.415    -.8602127    2.084297
       1963  |  -1.109978    .913709    -1.21   0.224    -2.900814    .6808592
       1964  |   .0487131   .8180376     0.06   0.953    -1.554611    1.652037
       1965  |   -1.16789   1.119008    -1.04   0.297    -3.361105    1.025325
       1966  |          0  (empty)
       1967  |   .8210283   .6183071     1.33   0.184    -.3908315    2.032888
       1968  |   .8089431     .52383     1.54   0.123    -.2177448    1.835631
       1969  |  -.0086084   .8333089    -0.01   0.992    -1.641864    1.624647
       1970  |   1.231325   .5528513     2.23   0.026     .1477568    2.314894
       1971  |   .3030652   .6763595     0.45   0.654    -1.022575    1.628706
       1972  |  -1.240968   1.166407    -1.06   0.287    -3.527084    1.045149
       1973  |  -1.211339   1.118806    -1.08   0.279    -3.404159    .9814815
       1974  |          0  (empty)
       1975  |   .7487897   .6415702     1.17   0.243    -.5086648    2.006244
       1976  |    .493085   .7458472     0.66   0.509    -.9687486    1.954919
       1977  |          0  (empty)
       1978  |  -1.301319   1.181476    -1.10   0.271    -3.616969     1.01433
       1979  |    .464549   .7547724     0.62   0.538    -1.014778    1.943876
       1980  |   .1839802   .6610158     0.28   0.781    -1.111587    1.479547
       1981  |  -.1095213   .8306671    -0.13   0.895    -1.737599    1.518556
       1982  |  -.5281961   .7528671    -0.70   0.483    -2.003789    .9473964
       1983  |   1.126724   .6436864     1.75   0.080    -.1348777    2.388327
       1984  |  -.1016394   .6799887    -0.15   0.881    -1.434393    1.231114
       1985  |  -.5843332   .9355982    -0.62   0.532    -2.418072    1.249406
       1986  |   .6403438   .7287412     0.88   0.380    -.7879627     2.06865
       1987  |   -.573045   .7486185    -0.77   0.444     -2.04031    .8942203
       1988  |  -.1236802   .8213082    -0.15   0.880    -1.733415    1.486054
       1989  |   .2153161   .6665354     0.32   0.747    -1.091069    1.521702
       1990  |   1.114924   .7088714     1.57   0.116    -.2744381    2.504287
       1991  |   1.419859   .6451274     2.20   0.028     .1554322    2.684285
       1992  |   1.265413   .7129181     1.77   0.076    -.1318806    2.662707
       1993  |   .3878286   .6795315     0.57   0.568    -.9440287    1.719686
       1994  |   .1062673     .83118     0.13   0.898    -1.522816     1.73535
       1995  |   .5790839   .6911481     0.84   0.402    -.7755414    1.933709
       1996  |   .3830438   .7053599     0.54   0.587    -.9994363    1.765524
       1997  |   .6347088   .7752328     0.82   0.413    -.8847195    2.154137
       1998  |   1.480025   .6718309     2.20   0.028     .1632609     2.79679
       1999  |   .4386656   .6826326     0.64   0.520    -.8992698    1.776601
       2000  |   1.702942   .6095116     2.79   0.005     .5083216    2.897563
       2001  |   .8902474   .5832812     1.53   0.127    -.2529628    2.033458
       2002  |   .7539967   .6585441     1.14   0.252     -.536726    2.044719
       2003  |   1.211898   .6040563     2.01   0.045     .0279696    2.395827
       2004  |    .700336   .7437956     0.94   0.346    -.7574767    2.158149
       2005  |   .6760956   .6654678     1.02   0.310    -.6281973    1.980389
       2006  |   1.134487   .6755151     1.68   0.093    -.1894979    2.458473
       2007  |          0  (omitted)
             |
       _cons |  -2.733007   .6981968    -3.91   0.000    -4.101448   -1.364567
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. ***Table 7: Using MIC instead of MID
. **Model 1-4: Last years both terms
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.miccount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.region, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,831
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1302                                         min =          2
     between = 0.7381                                         avg =       35.9
     overall = 0.1860                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(15)     =   35209.05
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3126374   .0526425     5.94   0.000       .20946    .4158149
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -.9177392   .3366191    -2.73   0.006      -1.5775    -.257978
  visit_lastyear_official |   .9642988   1.467602     0.66   0.511    -1.912148    3.840746
                     demo |  -.0673931   .2631936    -0.26   0.798    -.5832431     .448457
                  ln_cinc |  -.0485146   .0837895    -0.58   0.563     -.212739    .1157099
                          |
                 miccount |
                      L1. |   .2018925   .1362451     1.48   0.138    -.0651429     .468928
                          |
                  realgdp |  -2.02e-07   2.94e-07    -0.69   0.492    -7.79e-07    3.74e-07
                   growth |   3.252266   1.661422     1.96   0.050    -.0040614    6.508593
               landcontig |   .6237422    .232102     2.69   0.007     .1688306    1.078654
                     viol |  -.3129287   .1319281    -2.37   0.018     -.571503   -.0543544
                  rivalry |    .012723   .1754256     0.07   0.942    -.3311048    .3565508
                 l_postcw |  -.5604824   .2739046    -2.05   0.041    -1.097325   -.0236393
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.716569   .3054604     5.62   0.000     1.117877     2.31526
                       4  |   3.032763   .3218676     9.42   0.000     2.401914    3.663612
                       5  |  -.0744267   .1706001    -0.44   0.663    -.4087967    .2599433
                          |
                    _cons |   .0270619   .5649164     0.05   0.962    -1.080154    1.134278
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.9186636
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model1

. * Year FE
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.miccount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry i.year i.region, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,831
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.2616                                         min =          2
     between = 0.6924                                         avg =       35.9
     overall = 0.3073                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(50)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |    .250347   .0515405     4.86   0.000     .1493294    .3513647
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -.8956276   .3581097    -2.50   0.012     -1.59751   -.1937455
  visit_lastyear_official |   .9601147    1.25907     0.76   0.446    -1.507617    3.427846
                     demo |   .0960243   .2385031     0.40   0.687    -.3714332    .5634819
                  ln_cinc |  -.1404082   .0720546    -1.95   0.051    -.2816326    .0008162
                          |
                 miccount |
                      L1. |   .1062792   .1472356     0.72   0.470    -.1822973    .3948557
                          |
                  realgdp |   1.32e-07   1.73e-07     0.76   0.444    -2.07e-07    4.71e-07
                   growth |   5.262719   2.046967     2.57   0.010     1.250737    9.274701
               landcontig |   .5711282   .2636964     2.17   0.030     .0542927    1.087964
                     viol |  -.2362603   .1413551    -1.67   0.095    -.5133113    .0407906
                  rivalry |   .0042806   .1737676     0.02   0.980    -.3362977    .3448589
                          |
                     year |
                    1952  |  -7.226198   6.678661    -1.08   0.279    -20.31613    5.863737
                    1953  |  -19.01001   7.654807    -2.48   0.013    -34.01315   -4.006863
                    1954  |   -21.6109   8.055621    -2.68   0.007    -37.39963   -5.822174
                    1955  |   -23.1583   8.105904    -2.86   0.004    -39.04558   -7.271021
                    1956  |  -17.97126   7.024632    -2.56   0.011    -31.73928   -4.203232
                    1957  |  -21.04762   6.691107    -3.15   0.002    -34.16195   -7.933295
                    1958  |  -22.70016   7.152415    -3.17   0.002    -36.71864   -8.681686
                    1959  |  -19.46602   6.919099    -2.81   0.005     -33.0272   -5.904832
                    1960  |  -19.13643   7.363033    -2.60   0.009    -33.56771   -4.705148
                    1961  |  -17.95582   7.931806    -2.26   0.024    -33.50187   -2.409764
                    1962  |  -18.76442    6.89924    -2.72   0.007    -32.28668   -5.242156
                    1963  |  -20.86394   6.981102    -2.99   0.003    -34.54664   -7.181226
                    1964  |  -19.36601   7.121514    -2.72   0.007    -33.32392   -5.408102
                    1965  |  -20.35233    6.79724    -2.99   0.003    -33.67467   -7.029981
                    1966  |  -20.23142   6.994126    -2.89   0.004    -33.93966   -6.523188
                    1967  |  -17.95259   7.409304    -2.42   0.015    -32.47456   -3.430624
                    1968  |  -20.07349   6.865602    -2.92   0.003    -33.52982   -6.617156
                    1969  |  -21.44729   6.918742    -3.10   0.002    -35.00778   -7.886807
                    1970  |   -18.9259    7.12824    -2.66   0.008    -32.89699   -4.954806
                    1971  |  -19.21296   7.180823    -2.68   0.007    -33.28711   -5.138806
                    1972  |  -20.05166   6.998721    -2.87   0.004     -33.7689   -6.334421
                    1973  |  -21.01773    6.79525    -3.09   0.002    -34.33617   -7.699281
                    1974  |  -18.31233   7.316281    -2.50   0.012    -32.65197   -3.972681
                    1975  |  -17.91978   6.699719    -2.67   0.007    -31.05099    -4.78857
                    1976  |  -21.64508   6.746584    -3.21   0.001    -34.86815   -8.422022
                    1977  |  -20.07519   7.116463    -2.82   0.005     -34.0232   -6.127179
                    1978  |  -20.20236   6.786239    -2.98   0.003    -33.50315   -6.901579
                    1979  |  -20.53361   7.132699    -2.88   0.004    -34.51344   -6.553775
                    1980  |  -20.21764   7.000054    -2.89   0.004    -33.93749   -6.497782
                    1981  |  -19.67682   6.992611    -2.81   0.005    -33.38208   -5.971554
                    1982  |   -19.1899   7.230021    -2.65   0.008    -33.36048   -5.019314
                    1983  |   -20.7309   6.887446    -3.01   0.003    -34.23005   -7.231756
                    1984  |  -20.78742   7.143819    -2.91   0.004    -34.78904   -6.785788
                    1985  |  -20.12115   6.812121    -2.95   0.003    -33.47266   -6.769635
                    1986  |  -20.57742   7.272553    -2.83   0.005    -34.83136   -6.323479
                    1987  |  -20.00656   7.024556    -2.85   0.004    -33.77443   -6.238679
                    1988  |  -20.92803    7.35934    -2.84   0.004    -35.35207   -6.503985
                    1989  |  -20.35502   7.000883    -2.91   0.004     -34.0765   -6.633541
                    1990  |  -20.27931   7.044409    -2.88   0.004     -34.0861   -6.472525
                    1991  |  -21.03362   7.122374    -2.95   0.003    -34.99322   -7.074022
                    1992  |  -20.95434   7.275252    -2.88   0.004    -35.21358   -6.695113
                    1993  |  -21.36635    6.96766    -3.07   0.002    -35.02271   -7.709983
                    1994  |  -20.94817    6.86316    -3.05   0.002    -34.39972   -7.496626
                    1995  |   -21.4973   7.242926    -2.97   0.003    -35.69318   -7.301431
                    1996  |  -20.32853   7.069327    -2.88   0.004    -34.18416   -6.472907
                    1997  |  -20.83824    7.06802    -2.95   0.003    -34.69131   -6.985175
                    1998  |  -19.71254   6.970356    -2.83   0.005    -33.37419   -6.050892
                    1999  |  -19.54954   7.207288    -2.71   0.007    -33.67556   -5.423511
                    2000  |  -20.89037    7.09904    -2.94   0.003    -34.80423   -6.976506
                    2001  |  -20.71732   7.119353    -2.91   0.004      -34.671    -6.76365
                    2002  |  -19.57074   6.897324    -2.84   0.005    -33.08924   -6.052231
                    2003  |  -20.87326   7.103688    -2.94   0.003    -34.79624   -6.950289
                    2004  |  -20.48788   7.160489    -2.86   0.004    -34.52218   -6.453576
                    2005  |  -20.93293   7.137824    -2.93   0.003    -34.92281   -6.943052
                    2006  |  -20.57907   7.035528    -2.93   0.003    -34.36845   -6.789692
                    2007  |  -20.32651   6.841285    -2.97   0.003    -33.73519   -6.917841
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.499825   .3275098     4.58   0.000     .8579175    2.141732
                       4  |   3.556053   .3541668    10.04   0.000     2.861899    4.250207
                       5  |  -.0596688   .2044303    -0.29   0.770    -.4603447    .3410072
                          |
                    _cons |   19.21572    7.04997     2.73   0.006     5.398033    33.03341
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |   4.600073
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model2

. * Country FE
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.miccount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.ccode, robust cluster(ccode)
note: 740.ccode omitted because of collinearity
note: 920.ccode omitted because of collinearity

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,831
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1319                                         min =          2
     between = 1.0000                                         avg =       35.9
     overall = 0.1936                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(10)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3025968   .0538454     5.62   0.000     .1970617    .4081318
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -.8854901   .3647686    -2.43   0.015    -1.600423   -.1705568
  visit_lastyear_official |   .9789704    1.51341     0.65   0.518    -1.987258    3.945199
                     demo |  -.2542347   .4050789    -0.63   0.530    -1.048175    .5397053
                  ln_cinc |   1.081179   .8744519     1.24   0.216    -.6327155    2.795073
                          |
                 miccount |
                      L1. |   .2018658   .1466691     1.38   0.169    -.0856002    .4893319
                          |
                  realgdp |  -2.19e-07   3.48e-07    -0.63   0.529    -9.02e-07    4.64e-07
                   growth |   3.204885   1.795739     1.78   0.074    -.3146992     6.72447
               landcontig |  -2.033175   2.605962    -0.78   0.435    -7.140767    3.074417
                     viol |  -4.211655   3.752763    -1.12   0.262    -11.56694    3.143625
                  rivalry |  -.1891135   .4174274    -0.45   0.651    -1.007256    .6290292
                 l_postcw |  -.7161823   .2867802    -2.50   0.013    -1.278261   -.1541035
                          |
                    ccode |
                      41  |    4.66604   4.078793     1.14   0.253    -3.328248    12.66033
                      42  |   4.050465   3.483752     1.16   0.245    -2.777562    10.87849
                      51  |   1.921062    1.13778     1.69   0.091    -.3089451     4.15107
                      52  |   .3549803   .2985799     1.19   0.234    -.2302256    .9401862
                      70  |   3.515751     3.7098     0.95   0.343    -3.755323    10.78683
                      90  |   4.240332   3.543109     1.20   0.231    -2.704034     11.1847
                      91  |   4.975851   4.205768     1.18   0.237    -3.267304      13.219
                      92  |   4.668205   3.875632     1.20   0.228    -2.927895     12.2643
                      93  |   5.252029   4.172607     1.26   0.208    -2.926129    13.43019
                      95  |   5.293298    4.28575     1.24   0.217    -3.106616    13.69321
                     100  |   2.550363   2.101421     1.21   0.225    -1.568346    6.669072
                     101  |  -1.787911   1.815653    -0.98   0.325    -5.346524    1.770703
                     110  |   3.818915   2.343365     1.63   0.103    -.7739954    8.411826
                     130  |  -.3965111   .6895147    -0.58   0.565    -1.747935     .954913
                     135  |   2.691586   2.371939     1.13   0.256    -1.957329      7.3405
                     140  |  -3.495858   3.219362    -1.09   0.278    -9.805692    2.813975
                     145  |   4.395612   3.493936     1.26   0.208    -2.452376     11.2436
                     150  |   4.796055   4.024424     1.19   0.233    -3.091672    12.68378
                     155  |   2.790216   2.395927     1.16   0.244    -1.905715    7.486146
                     160  |   1.828722   1.707371     1.07   0.284    -1.517664    5.175108
                     165  |   4.623352   3.772101     1.23   0.220    -2.769829    12.01653
                     200  |   1.177565   .6655791     1.77   0.077    -.1269464    2.482076
                     210  |   3.084778   1.749973     1.76   0.078    -.3451059    6.514663
                     211  |   3.417046   1.807777     1.89   0.059    -.1261324    6.960224
                     220  |   2.438643   .6869671     3.55   0.000     1.092212    3.785074
                     230  |   2.653731   1.329758     2.00   0.046     .0474527     5.26001
                     235  |   1.122097   1.176833     0.95   0.340    -1.184454    3.428647
                     260  |   .1786023   .4365103     0.41   0.682    -.6769421    1.034147
                     290  |   6.274092   1.720823     3.65   0.000      2.90134    9.646844
                     310  |   5.277386   2.919735     1.81   0.071    -.4451901    10.99996
                     316  |  -.5931683   1.345144    -0.44   0.659    -3.229602    2.043266
                     317  |    .222409   .7985142     0.28   0.781     -1.34265    1.787468
                     325  |  -1.409493   3.016676    -0.47   0.640    -7.322069    4.503083
                     349  |    5.68317   4.280263     1.33   0.184    -2.705991    14.07233
                     350  |   5.288372   2.314171     2.29   0.022     .7526792    9.824065
                     355  |    3.96308   2.984745     1.33   0.184    -1.886914    9.813073
                     360  |   2.916122   2.282647     1.28   0.201    -1.557785    7.390028
                     366  |    2.64343   1.154755     2.29   0.022     .3801512    4.906709
                     367  |   1.796639   .6209797     2.89   0.004     .5795411    3.013737
                     368  |   1.095583   .4152742     2.64   0.008     .2816609    1.909506
                     385  |   1.813018   .8385782     2.16   0.031      .169435    3.456601
                     390  |   1.186137   .8322491     1.43   0.154    -.4450417    2.817315
                     640  |   4.402541   1.414903     3.11   0.002     1.629383    7.175699
                     713  |   1.401214   1.458829     0.96   0.337    -1.458038    4.260467
                     732  |   .8475155   1.084419     0.78   0.434    -1.277908    2.972939
                     740  |          0  (omitted)
                     770  |   -3.24296   2.609263    -1.24   0.214    -8.357021    1.871102
                     840  |  -2.118211   1.895052    -1.12   0.264    -5.832445    1.596023
                     900  |   -2.45379    2.16274    -1.13   0.257    -6.692682    1.785103
                     920  |          0  (omitted)
                          |
                    _cons |   8.147922   6.679228     1.22   0.223    -4.943124    21.23897
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.9186636
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model3

. * Additional controls
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.miccount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry nukes_us_b affinity_us l_postcw i.region, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,831
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1323                                         min =          2
     between = 0.7484                                         avg =       35.9
     overall = 0.1881                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(17)     =   58400.56
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3103624   .0523966     5.92   0.000     .2076669    .4130579
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -.9016156    .346656    -2.60   0.009    -1.581049   -.2221823
  visit_lastyear_official |    .952568   1.477278     0.64   0.519    -1.942843    3.847979
                     demo |  -.0111335   .2658012    -0.04   0.967    -.5320943    .5098274
                  ln_cinc |  -.0301184   .0908498    -0.33   0.740    -.2081808     .147944
                          |
                 miccount |
                      L1. |   .2011703   .1351847     1.49   0.137    -.0637867    .4661274
                          |
                  realgdp |  -2.35e-07   2.88e-07    -0.81   0.416    -8.00e-07    3.30e-07
                   growth |   2.918125   1.636493     1.78   0.075    -.2893423    6.125592
               landcontig |    .530374   .2330968     2.28   0.023     .0735127    .9872353
                     viol |  -.2671753   .1196223    -2.23   0.026    -.5016306     -.03272
                  rivalry |   .0160617   .1770354     0.09   0.928    -.3309213    .3630448
               nukes_us_b |   -.390655   .4117205    -0.95   0.343    -1.197612    .4163024
            affinity_us_b |   .6714212    .316731     2.12   0.034     .0506399    1.292202
                 l_postcw |  -.3296049   .2500216    -1.32   0.187    -.8196381    .1604284
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.610018   .3119094     5.16   0.000     .9986865    2.221349
                       4  |   3.213066   .4933061     6.51   0.000     2.246204    4.179929
                       5  |  -.1109027   .2170972    -0.51   0.609    -.5364054    .3146001
                          |
                    _cons |   .0712886   .5975395     0.12   0.905    -1.099867    1.242444
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.9114836
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model4

. **Model 5-8: Last years in second term only
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.miccount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.region, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,831
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1333                                         min =          2
     between = 0.7366                                         avg =       35.9
     overall = 0.1887                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(15)     =   36341.46
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3122972   .0530432     5.89   0.000     .2083345      .41626
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |  -.9463633   .3400015    -2.78   0.005    -1.612754   -.2799727
  visit_lameduck_official |   2.944964   3.073001     0.96   0.338    -3.078008    8.967935
                     demo |  -.0206231   .2579745    -0.08   0.936    -.5262439    .4849976
                  ln_cinc |  -.0575247    .083527    -0.69   0.491    -.2212346    .1061853
                          |
                 miccount |
                      L1. |   .1970048   .1403232     1.40   0.160    -.0780236    .4720332
                          |
                  realgdp |  -1.67e-07   2.79e-07    -0.60   0.550    -7.14e-07    3.80e-07
                   growth |   3.366861   1.742574     1.93   0.053    -.0485205    6.782242
               landcontig |   .6228878   .2355356     2.64   0.008     .1612465    1.084529
                     viol |  -.3067887   .1274864    -2.41   0.016    -.5566573     -.05692
                  rivalry |   .0183563   .1766255     0.10   0.917    -.3278232    .3645358
                 l_postcw |  -.5705684   .2761931    -2.07   0.039    -1.111897   -.0292399
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.705767   .3018284     5.65   0.000     1.114194     2.29734
                       4  |   3.071094   .3356653     9.15   0.000     2.413202    3.728986
                       5  |  -.0571508   .1728034    -0.33   0.741    -.3958392    .2815377
                          |
                    _cons |  -.0688126   .5785685    -0.12   0.905    -1.202786    1.065161
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.9093661
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model5

. * Year FE
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.miccount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry i.year i.region, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,831
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.2636                                         min =          2
     between = 0.6903                                         avg =       35.9
     overall = 0.3090                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(50)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .2496633   .0519104     4.81   0.000     .1479209    .3514058
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |  -.8681839    .343787    -2.53   0.012    -1.541994   -.1943738
  visit_lameduck_official |   2.771642   2.890826     0.96   0.338    -2.894274    8.437557
                     demo |   .1514568   .2322668     0.65   0.514    -.3037778    .6066914
                  ln_cinc |  -.1488872   .0731709    -2.03   0.042    -.2922995   -.0054748
                          |
                 miccount |
                      L1. |   .1110817   .1506126     0.74   0.461    -.1841137    .4062771
                          |
                  realgdp |   1.60e-07   1.68e-07     0.95   0.341    -1.69e-07    4.88e-07
                   growth |    5.23867    2.04899     2.56   0.011     1.222724    9.254617
               landcontig |   .5612924   .2763952     2.03   0.042     .0195678    1.103017
                     viol |  -.2296771   .1386597    -1.66   0.098    -.5014451     .042091
                  rivalry |   .0028974   .1727105     0.02   0.987    -.3356089    .3414037
                          |
                     year |
                    1952  |   -7.21349   6.675604    -1.08   0.280    -20.29743    5.870454
                    1953  |  -18.99839   7.655656    -2.48   0.013     -34.0032   -3.993575
                    1954  |   -21.6131   8.049545    -2.69   0.007    -37.38992   -5.836282
                    1955  |  -23.15652   8.102644    -2.86   0.004    -39.03741   -7.275629
                    1956  |  -17.97264   7.022526    -2.56   0.010    -31.73653   -4.208738
                    1957  |  -21.04357   6.688151    -3.15   0.002     -34.1521   -7.935033
                    1958  |   -22.7011   7.145661    -3.18   0.001    -36.70634   -8.695862
                    1959  |  -19.47126    6.91218    -2.82   0.005    -33.01888   -5.923632
                    1960  |   -19.1497   7.350671    -2.61   0.009    -33.55675   -4.742653
                    1961  |   -18.4558   7.671507    -2.41   0.016    -33.49167   -3.419921
                    1962  |  -18.76845   6.892739    -2.72   0.006    -32.27797    -5.25893
                    1963  |  -20.86582   6.975575    -2.99   0.003    -34.53769    -7.19394
                    1964  |  -19.37314    7.11304    -2.72   0.006    -33.31445   -5.431841
                    1965  |  -20.29909   6.808155    -2.98   0.003    -33.64283   -6.955351
                    1966  |  -20.23563   6.988168    -2.90   0.004    -33.93219   -6.539075
                    1967  |  -17.96193   7.400216    -2.43   0.015    -32.46609   -3.457777
                    1968  |  -20.08065    6.85815    -2.93   0.003    -33.52238    -6.63892
                    1969  |  -21.33301   6.948474    -3.07   0.002    -34.95177   -7.714249
                    1970  |  -18.93703   7.117728    -2.66   0.008    -32.88752   -4.986538
                    1971  |  -19.21801   7.173406    -2.68   0.007    -33.27762   -5.158388
                    1972  |  -20.05384   6.993584    -2.87   0.004    -33.76101   -6.346666
                    1973  |  -20.96805   6.806541    -3.08   0.002    -34.30862   -7.627473
                    1974  |  -18.31956   7.309191    -2.51   0.012    -32.64531   -3.993812
                    1975  |  -17.93086   6.692945    -2.68   0.007    -31.04879   -4.812929
                    1976  |  -21.49427   6.800966    -3.16   0.002    -34.82392   -8.164622
                    1977  |  -20.08355   7.109722    -2.82   0.005    -34.01835   -6.148746
                    1978  |  -20.20951   6.779626    -2.98   0.003    -33.49733   -6.921687
                    1979  |  -20.54522   7.123382    -2.88   0.004     -34.5068    -6.58365
                    1980  |  -20.23019   6.989357    -2.89   0.004    -33.92908     -6.5313
                    1981  |  -19.53256   7.068238    -2.76   0.006    -33.38605   -5.679066
                    1982  |  -19.20505   7.220194    -2.66   0.008    -33.35637   -5.053728
                    1983  |   -20.7576   6.869956    -3.02   0.003    -34.22247   -7.292734
                    1984  |  -20.81159   7.130705    -2.92   0.004    -34.78752   -6.835667
                    1985  |  -20.04069   6.820356    -2.94   0.003    -33.40834   -6.673034
                    1986  |  -20.60397   7.255962    -2.84   0.005    -34.82539   -6.382542
                    1987  |  -20.03126   7.011845    -2.86   0.004    -33.77422   -6.288292
                    1988  |  -20.95715   7.343688    -2.85   0.004    -35.35052   -6.563787
                    1989  |  -20.65606   6.934641    -2.98   0.003    -34.24771   -7.064418
                    1990  |  -20.31495   7.025123    -2.89   0.004    -34.08393   -6.545956
                    1991  |  -21.07059   7.101346    -2.97   0.003    -34.98897   -7.152209
                    1992  |  -20.99119   7.256578    -2.89   0.004    -35.21383   -6.768562
                    1993  |  -21.24739   6.998248    -3.04   0.002     -34.9637   -7.531073
                    1994  |  -20.98838    6.84598    -3.07   0.002    -34.40625   -7.570505
                    1995  |  -21.53861   7.223677    -2.98   0.003    -35.69676   -7.380468
                    1996  |  -20.37024   7.052253    -2.89   0.004     -34.1924   -6.548078
                    1997  |  -20.71768    7.10181    -2.92   0.004    -34.63697   -6.798388
                    1998  |  -19.75986   6.948411    -2.84   0.004    -33.37849    -6.14122
                    1999  |  -19.59386   7.186408    -2.73   0.006    -33.67896   -5.508756
                    2000  |  -20.93861   7.077964    -2.96   0.003    -34.81116    -7.06605
                    2001  |  -21.14295    6.91784    -3.06   0.002    -34.70167   -7.584233
                    2002  |  -19.61688   6.876471    -2.85   0.004    -33.09452   -6.139245
                    2003  |  -20.91949   7.082552    -2.95   0.003    -34.80104   -7.037947
                    2004  |  -20.53469   7.138531    -2.88   0.004    -34.52595   -6.543421
                    2005  |  -20.73993   7.195038    -2.88   0.004    -34.84195   -6.637916
                    2006  |  -20.62244   7.015147    -2.94   0.003    -34.37187   -6.873002
                    2007  |  -20.36749   6.822294    -2.99   0.003    -33.73894   -6.996038
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.483638   .3244258     4.57   0.000     .8477754    2.119501
                       4  |   3.582214   .3616233     9.91   0.000     2.873445    4.290983
                       5  |  -.0478858   .2108064    -0.23   0.820    -.4610587    .3652872
                          |
                    _cons |   19.13875    7.06115     2.71   0.007      5.29915    32.97835
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.5932526
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model6

. * Country FE
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.miccount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.ccode, robust cluster(ccode)
note: 740.ccode omitted because of collinearity
note: 920.ccode omitted because of collinearity

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,831
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1351                                         min =          2
     between = 1.0000                                         avg =       35.9
     overall = 0.1967                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(10)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3018983   .0542793     5.56   0.000     .1955127    .4082839
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |   -.936277   .3670365    -2.55   0.011    -1.655655   -.2168987
  visit_lameduck_official |   3.059157   3.155202     0.97   0.332    -3.124925    9.243239
                     demo |  -.2178439   .4051555    -0.54   0.591    -1.011934    .5762462
                  ln_cinc |   1.140457    .894528     1.27   0.202    -.6127857      2.8937
                          |
                 miccount |
                      L1. |   .1955866   .1514735     1.29   0.197     -.101296    .4924692
                          |
                  realgdp |  -1.84e-07   3.29e-07    -0.56   0.575    -8.29e-07    4.60e-07
                   growth |   3.302746   1.869106     1.77   0.077    -.3606335    6.966126
               landcontig |  -2.162061   2.658056    -0.81   0.416    -7.371755    3.047633
                     viol |  -4.476931   3.859366    -1.16   0.246    -12.04115    3.087287
                  rivalry |  -.1975404   .4141205    -0.48   0.633    -1.009202    .6141209
                 l_postcw |  -.7320965   .2918217    -2.51   0.012    -1.304056   -.1601365
                          |
                    ccode |
                      41  |   5.006683   4.191158     1.19   0.232    -3.207836     13.2212
                      42  |   4.335685   3.591159     1.21   0.227    -2.702857    11.37423
                      51  |   2.007999   1.169764     1.72   0.086    -.2846954    4.300694
                      52  |   .3906567   .3037264     1.29   0.198    -.2046361    .9859495
                      70  |   3.691442   3.781228     0.98   0.329    -3.719629    11.10251
                      90  |   4.576742   3.650649     1.25   0.210    -2.578398    11.73188
                      91  |   5.361631   4.324623     1.24   0.215    -3.114474    13.83774
                      92  |    4.97383   3.995635     1.24   0.213     -2.85747    12.80513
                      93  |   5.580072   4.281942     1.30   0.193    -2.812381    13.97252
                      95  |   5.781202   4.473574     1.29   0.196    -2.986841    14.54925
                     100  |   2.706138   2.148103     1.26   0.208    -1.504066    6.916342
                     101  |  -1.897666   1.868965    -1.02   0.310     -5.56077    1.765438
                     110  |   3.997117   2.385763     1.68   0.094    -.6788918    8.673126
                     130  |  -.4071517   .7008929    -0.58   0.561    -1.780877    .9665732
                     135  |   2.899689     2.4375     1.19   0.234    -1.877723    7.677102
                     140  |  -3.745677    3.32605    -1.13   0.260    -10.26462    2.773261
                     145  |    4.67191   3.581366     1.30   0.192    -2.347438    11.69126
                     150  |   5.115063    4.14532     1.23   0.217    -3.009614    13.23974
                     155  |    2.95335   2.451946     1.20   0.228    -1.852377    7.759076
                     160  |   1.941461   1.739302     1.12   0.264    -1.467509    5.350431
                     165  |   4.913128   3.887563     1.26   0.206    -2.706354    12.53261
                     200  |   1.173752   .6675912     1.76   0.079    -.1347031    2.482206
                     210  |   3.209806   1.801295     1.78   0.075    -.3206681     6.74028
                     211  |   3.492508   1.839477     1.90   0.058    -.1128004    7.097817
                     220  |   2.522048   .6990311     3.61   0.000     1.151972    3.892124
                     230  |    2.74128   1.365165     2.01   0.045      .065606    5.416954
                     235  |   1.020574   1.222619     0.83   0.404    -1.375714    3.416863
                     260  |    .243557   .4514329     0.54   0.590    -.6412352    1.128349
                     290  |   6.408151   1.780583     3.60   0.000     2.918272     9.89803
                     310  |   5.503323   3.016948     1.82   0.068    -.4097863    11.41643
                     316  |  -.6720499   1.367901    -0.49   0.623    -3.353087    2.008987
                     317  |   .2078606   .8149981     0.26   0.799    -1.389506    1.805228
                     325  |  -1.581724   3.084048    -0.51   0.608    -7.626347    4.462899
                     349  |   5.997221    4.40934     1.36   0.174    -2.644928    14.63937
                     350  |   5.487673   2.377701     2.31   0.021     .8274656    10.14788
                     355  |   4.183364   3.075243     1.36   0.174    -1.844002    10.21073
                     360  |   3.080146   2.348724     1.31   0.190    -1.523268     7.68356
                     366  |   2.752929   1.185799     2.32   0.020     .4288054    5.077053
                     367  |   1.865267   .6398096     2.92   0.004     .6112634    3.119271
                     368  |   1.125149   .4253351     2.65   0.008      .291507     1.95879
                     385  |   1.760493    .852357     2.07   0.039     .0899037    3.431082
                     390  |   1.135276   .8462123     1.34   0.180    -.5232701    2.793821
                     640  |   4.556642   1.456322     3.13   0.002     1.702303     7.41098
                     713  |   1.552907   1.480241     1.05   0.294    -1.348311    4.454126
                     732  |   .9911149   1.094155     0.91   0.365     -1.15339     3.13562
                     740  |          0  (omitted)
                     770  |   -3.42506   2.674975    -1.28   0.200    -8.667914    1.817794
                     840  |  -2.218261   1.931443    -1.15   0.251    -6.003819    1.567297
                     900  |  -2.572648   2.205169    -1.17   0.243    -6.894699    1.749403
                     920  |          0  (omitted)
                          |
                    _cons |    8.54932   6.822789     1.25   0.210    -4.823101    21.92174
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.9093661
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model7

. * Additional controls
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.miccount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry nukes_us_b affinity_us l_postcw i.region, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,831
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         51

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1356                                         min =          2
     between = 0.7473                                         avg =       35.9
     overall = 0.1910                                         max =         57

                                                Wald chi2(17)     =   46329.21
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3100229   .0528022     5.87   0.000     .2065325    .4135133
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |  -.9337544   .3476222    -2.69   0.007    -1.615081   -.2524274
  visit_lameduck_official |   2.976276   3.067791     0.97   0.332    -3.036483    8.989036
                     demo |   .0381116    .261998     0.15   0.884    -.4753951    .5516183
                  ln_cinc |  -.0399026   .0908102    -0.44   0.660    -.2178872    .1380821
                          |
                 miccount |
                      L1. |   .1961576   .1394392     1.41   0.159    -.0771383    .4694535
                          |
                  realgdp |  -2.00e-07   2.73e-07    -0.73   0.464    -7.35e-07    3.36e-07
                   growth |   3.021234   1.710881     1.77   0.077    -.3320306    6.374498
               landcontig |   .5233062   .2257581     2.32   0.020     .0808286    .9657839
                     viol |  -.2621759   .1180147    -2.22   0.026    -.4934804   -.0308714
                  rivalry |   .0218855   .1789963     0.12   0.903    -.3289408    .3727118
               nukes_us_b |  -.3812569   .4200715    -0.91   0.364    -1.204582    .4420681
            affinity_us_b |   .6962888   .3209059     2.17   0.030     .0673248    1.325253
                 l_postcw |  -.3294677   .2534509    -1.30   0.194    -.8262224     .167287
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.585516   .3044469     5.21   0.000     .9888112    2.182221
                       4  |    3.23935   .5094268     6.36   0.000     2.240892    4.237808
                       5  |  -.0981452   .2251034    -0.44   0.663    -.5393397    .3430492
                          |
                    _cons |   -.031681   .6120645    -0.05   0.959    -1.231305    1.167943
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.9014235
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model8

. 
. esttab using table7.tex, replace label se nodepvars booktabs alignment(l) width(0.8\hsize) ///
> b(3)  addn(Robust standard errors are clustered by countries and in parentheses.) /// 
> star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** .01 *** .001) stats(N r2, label("N Obs." "Overall $R^2$")) nogaps scalars("N Obs." "R squared
> " ) ///
> title(Alternate Conflict Involvement Variable: The MIC Dataset\label{reg7})
(output written to table7.tex)

. 
. 
. ***Table 8: The effects of diplomatic visits during the first and second terms of the presidency
. **Model 1-4: Visits in the First Term
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.region if termlimit_l1==0, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,283
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         44

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1900                                         min =          3
     between = 0.7690                                         avg =       29.2
     overall = 0.2403                                         max =         41

                                                Wald chi2(15)     =   18459.22
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 44 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3274327   .0546213     5.99   0.000     .2203768    .4344885
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -.6734389   .2261364    -2.98   0.003    -1.116658   -.2302197
  visit_lastyear_official |  -.8997289   .4013524    -2.24   0.025    -1.686365   -.1130926
                     demo |  -.0940014     .26725    -0.35   0.725    -.6178019     .429799
                  ln_cinc |   .0209394   .1118598     0.19   0.852    -.1983017    .2401805
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .0915736   .2314852     0.40   0.692     -.362129    .5452762
                          |
                  realgdp |  -3.01e-07   3.76e-07    -0.80   0.423    -1.04e-06    4.36e-07
                   growth |   3.760125   1.740457     2.16   0.031     .3488922    7.171358
               landcontig |   .2708313   .2798355     0.97   0.333    -.2776361    .8192988
                     viol |  -.2571809   .1589071    -1.62   0.106    -.5686332    .0542713
                  rivalry |  -.0524735   .2196225    -0.24   0.811    -.4829257    .3779788
                 l_postcw |    -.50971     .26647    -1.91   0.056    -1.031982    .0125616
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.735537    .377214     4.60   0.000      .996211    2.474863
                       4  |   1.103022    .404802     2.72   0.006     .3096247    1.896419
                       5  |  -.0302714   .1859757    -0.16   0.871     -.394777    .3342342
                          |
                    _cons |   .4796193   .7610227     0.63   0.529    -1.011958    1.971196
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.6162543
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model1

. * Year FE
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry i.year i.region if termlimit_l1==0, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,283
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         44

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.3655                                         min =          3
     between = 0.7403                                         avg =       29.2
     overall = 0.4022                                         max =         41

                                                Wald chi2(43)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 44 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .2620627   .0506787     5.17   0.000     .1627343    .3613912
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -.4985022   .2400388    -2.08   0.038    -.9689695   -.0280348
  visit_lastyear_official |  -.5974403   .4186057    -1.43   0.154    -1.417892    .2230118
                     demo |   .0345928    .280644     0.12   0.902    -.5154593     .584645
                  ln_cinc |  -.0899871   .0859934    -1.05   0.295     -.258531    .0785568
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .0025667   .1691776     0.02   0.988    -.3290152    .3341486
                          |
                  realgdp |   1.29e-07   1.92e-07     0.67   0.503    -2.48e-07    5.05e-07
                   growth |   5.539085   2.239147     2.47   0.013     1.150438    9.927731
               landcontig |   .0943137   .2668459     0.35   0.724    -.4286946    .6173221
                     viol |  -.1912696   .1658077    -1.15   0.249    -.5162469    .1337076
                  rivalry |  -.1475426   .2030953    -0.73   0.468    -.5456022     .250517
                          |
                     year |
                    1952  |  -7.356306    6.66194    -1.10   0.269    -20.41347    5.700857
                    1953  |  -19.13097   7.646444    -2.50   0.012    -34.11772   -4.144217
                    1954  |  -21.67439   8.105805    -2.67   0.007    -37.56148   -5.787307
                    1955  |  -23.07286   8.117093    -2.84   0.004    -38.98207   -7.163649
                    1956  |  -17.82911   7.007651    -2.54   0.011    -31.56386   -4.094371
                    1957  |  -21.01541   6.697443    -3.14   0.002    -34.14216   -7.888662
                    1958  |          0  (empty)
                    1959  |          0  (empty)
                    1960  |          0  (empty)
                    1961  |          0  (empty)
                    1962  |   -18.8247   6.910546    -2.72   0.006    -32.36912   -5.280281
                    1963  |  -20.88117   6.998934    -2.98   0.003    -34.59883   -7.163511
                    1964  |  -19.38769    7.13922    -2.72   0.007     -33.3803   -5.395075
                    1965  |  -20.29965   6.813205    -2.98   0.003    -33.65329   -6.946016
                    1966  |  -20.22645   7.006143    -2.89   0.004    -33.95824   -6.494663
                    1967  |  -18.00202    7.41075    -2.43   0.015    -32.52682   -3.477215
                    1968  |   -20.1333   6.879558    -2.93   0.003    -33.61699   -6.649616
                    1969  |  -21.36613   6.969093    -3.07   0.002     -35.0253   -7.706955
                    1970  |  -18.99214   7.145394    -2.66   0.008    -32.99685   -4.987421
                    1971  |  -19.29112    7.17077    -2.69   0.007    -33.34558   -5.236674
                    1972  |  -20.10125   7.018135    -2.86   0.004    -33.85655   -6.345962
                    1973  |  -20.99564   6.826811    -3.08   0.002    -34.37594   -7.615333
                    1974  |          0  (empty)
                    1975  |          0  (empty)
                    1976  |  -21.56764   6.833244    -3.16   0.002    -34.96055   -8.174731
                    1977  |  -20.06127   7.129168    -2.81   0.005    -34.03419    -6.08836
                    1978  |  -20.20975    6.79171    -2.98   0.003    -33.52125   -6.898239
                    1979  |   -20.5695   7.119367    -2.89   0.004    -34.52321     -6.6158
                    1980  |  -20.26594   6.971626    -2.91   0.004    -33.93008   -6.601808
                    1981  |   -19.5272   7.060993    -2.77   0.006    -33.36649   -5.687906
                    1982  |  -19.17235   7.200639    -2.66   0.008    -33.28534   -5.059358
                    1983  |  -20.80059   6.849814    -3.04   0.002    -34.22598     -7.3752
                    1984  |  -20.78396   7.134595    -2.91   0.004    -34.76751   -6.800413
                    1985  |   -19.9973   6.813782    -2.93   0.003    -33.35207   -6.642534
                    1986  |          0  (empty)
                    1987  |          0  (empty)
                    1988  |          0  (empty)
                    1989  |          0  (empty)
                    1990  |  -20.34456   7.036813    -2.89   0.004    -34.13646   -6.552657
                    1991  |   -21.1572   7.104473    -2.98   0.003    -35.08171   -7.232687
                    1992  |  -21.02799   7.274418    -2.89   0.004    -35.28559   -6.770396
                    1993  |  -21.20706   7.010256    -3.03   0.002    -34.94691   -7.467207
                    1994  |  -20.89427   6.877847    -3.04   0.002     -34.3746   -7.413933
                    1995  |   -21.4624   7.259736    -2.96   0.003    -35.69122   -7.233581
                    1996  |  -20.30346   7.087164    -2.86   0.004    -34.19404    -6.41287
                    1997  |  -20.67327   7.107901    -2.91   0.004     -34.6045   -6.742042
                    1998  |          0  (empty)
                    1999  |          0  (empty)
                    2000  |          0  (empty)
                    2001  |          0  (empty)
                    2002  |  -19.54541   6.884806    -2.84   0.005    -33.03938   -6.051442
                    2003  |  -20.89471   7.090494    -2.95   0.003    -34.79183   -6.997601
                    2004  |  -20.50971   7.172791    -2.86   0.004    -34.56812   -6.451298
                    2005  |  -20.73407   7.226357    -2.87   0.004    -34.89746   -6.570667
                    2006  |          0  (empty)
                    2007  |          0  (empty)
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.320365   .4109629     3.21   0.001     .5148924    2.125837
                       4  |   1.629347   .3642893     4.47   0.000     .9153532    2.343341
                       5  |   -.102929    .224066    -0.46   0.646    -.5420904    .3362323
                          |
                    _cons |   19.74122   6.873247     2.87   0.004       6.2699    33.21253
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.1426907
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model2

. * Country FE
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.ccode if termlimit_l1==0, robust cluster(ccode)
note: 740.ccode omitted because of collinearity
note: 920.ccode omitted because of collinearity

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,283
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         44

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1959                                         min =          3
     between = 1.0000                                         avg =       29.2
     overall = 0.2545                                         max =         41

                                                Wald chi2(10)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 44 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3156805   .0561208     5.63   0.000     .2056857    .4256754
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -.7162511   .2735608    -2.62   0.009     -1.25242   -.1800818
  visit_lastyear_official |   -.989892   .3787749    -2.61   0.009    -1.732277   -.2475069
                     demo |  -.5646138   .4732916    -1.19   0.233    -1.492248    .3630207
                  ln_cinc |    2.10463   1.065115     1.98   0.048     .0170439    4.192216
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .1090593   .2203937     0.49   0.621    -.3229043     .541023
                          |
                  realgdp |  -4.07e-07   5.06e-07    -0.81   0.421    -1.40e-06    5.84e-07
                   growth |   3.692327   1.785117     2.07   0.039     .1935616    7.191092
               landcontig |  -5.359678   3.040223    -1.76   0.078    -11.31841    .5990497
                     viol |  -8.290684   4.422954    -1.87   0.061    -16.95951    .3781467
                  rivalry |  -.5661006   .5602365    -1.01   0.312    -1.664144    .5319428
                 l_postcw |  -.7695975   .3101074    -2.48   0.013    -1.377397   -.1617982
                          |
                    ccode |
                      41  |   9.610956   4.924721     1.95   0.051      -.04132    19.26323
                      42  |   7.650676   4.153192     1.84   0.065    -.4894307    15.79078
                      51  |   3.210733   1.448585     2.22   0.027      .371559    6.049907
                      52  |    .123667   .3407396     0.36   0.717    -.5441704    .7915044
                      70  |   7.682905   4.375308     1.76   0.079    -.8925409    16.25835
                      90  |   8.222351   4.393182     1.87   0.061     -.388127    16.83283
                      91  |   9.978043   5.264203     1.90   0.058     -.339604    20.29569
                      92  |   8.618895   4.576585     1.88   0.060    -.3510459    17.58884
                      93  |   10.03475   5.151248     1.95   0.051    -.0615057    20.13101
                      95  |    10.1629   5.208598     1.95   0.051    -.0457671    20.37156
                     100  |   5.057767   2.741601     1.84   0.065    -.3156723    10.43121
                     101  |  -3.621275   2.001161    -1.81   0.070    -7.543479    .3009283
                     110  |   6.659151   3.079138     2.16   0.031     .6241521    12.69415
                     130  |  -.8580356   .6261904    -1.37   0.171    -2.085346    .3692749
                     135  |   5.169384   2.904801     1.78   0.075    -.5239209    10.86269
                     140  |  -7.129379   3.693578    -1.93   0.054    -14.36866    .1099008
                     145  |   8.372172   4.406867     1.90   0.057    -.2651285    17.00947
                     150  |   9.005089   4.805565     1.87   0.061     -.413645    18.42382
                     155  |   5.433233   2.979674     1.82   0.068    -.4068202    11.27329
                     160  |   3.533171   2.122418     1.66   0.096    -.6266923    7.693034
                     165  |   8.539197   4.463241     1.91   0.056    -.2085956    17.28699
                     200  |   2.012547   .8865264     2.27   0.023     .2749871    3.750107
                     210  |   4.495465   2.056013     2.19   0.029      .465754    8.525176
                     211  |   5.258897   2.078912     2.53   0.011     1.184304     9.33349
                     220  |   3.749865   1.012434     3.70   0.000     1.765531    5.734199
                     230  |   3.572237     1.6207     2.20   0.028     .3957222    6.748751
                     235  |  -1.107689   1.284656    -0.86   0.389    -3.625568     1.41019
                     260  |   .2829925   .4795369     0.59   0.555    -.6568826    1.222868
                     290  |   7.696612   2.096644     3.67   0.000     3.587265    11.80596
                     310  |   7.535819   3.503913     2.15   0.032     .6682759    14.40336
                     316  |   2.183847   1.522807     1.43   0.152    -.8007992    5.168494
                     317  |          0  (empty)
                     325  |  -4.547545   3.510278    -1.30   0.195    -11.42756    2.332474
                     349  |          0  (empty)
                     350  |   7.870438   2.884991     2.73   0.006     2.215959    13.52492
                     355  |          0  (empty)
                     360  |          0  (empty)
                     366  |          0  (empty)
                     367  |          0  (empty)
                     368  |          0  (empty)
                     385  |   1.199159   .9687876     1.24   0.216    -.6996301    3.097947
                     390  |   .0021486   .9884122     0.00   0.998    -1.935104    1.939401
                     640  |   4.060806   1.776644     2.29   0.022     .5786471    7.542965
                     713  |   2.893968   1.944871     1.49   0.137    -.9179099    6.705846
                     732  |   2.173908   1.453568     1.50   0.135    -.6750319    5.022848
                     740  |          0  (omitted)
                     770  |  -6.312927   3.228789    -1.96   0.051    -12.64124    .0153837
                     840  |  -4.328245   2.249469    -1.92   0.054    -8.737123    .0806329
                     900  |  -4.970029   2.596443    -1.91   0.056    -10.05896     .118905
                     920  |          0  (omitted)
                          |
                    _cons |   16.12925   8.119476     1.99   0.047      .215369    32.04313
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.6162543
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model3

. * Additional controls
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolastyear_official visit_lastyear_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry nukes_us_b affinity_us l_postcw i.region if termlimit_l1==0, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =      1,283
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         44

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.1947                                         min =          3
     between = 0.7721                                         avg =       29.2
     overall = 0.2445                                         max =         41

                                                Wald chi2(17)     =   17398.51
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 44 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .3234743   .0540175     5.99   0.000     .2176019    .4293467
                          |
visit_nolastyear_official |  -.6210096   .2346443    -2.65   0.008    -1.080904   -.1611152
  visit_lastyear_official |   -.872706   .4056056    -2.15   0.031    -1.667678   -.0777335
                     demo |  -.0557415   .2720204    -0.20   0.838    -.5888917    .4774087
                  ln_cinc |    .062757   .1217788     0.52   0.606     -.175925     .301439
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |    .080579    .236419     0.34   0.733    -.3827937    .5439516
                          |
                  realgdp |  -3.78e-07   3.75e-07    -1.01   0.314    -1.11e-06    3.57e-07
                   growth |   3.104479   1.689724     1.84   0.066    -.2073187    6.416277
               landcontig |   .1997537   .3331766     0.60   0.549    -.4532605    .8527678
                     viol |  -.1736136    .162784    -1.07   0.286    -.4926643    .1454371
                  rivalry |    -.04608   .2192279    -0.21   0.834    -.4757588    .3835988
               nukes_us_b |  -.6891826   .5567744    -1.24   0.216     -1.78044    .4020752
            affinity_us_b |   .8315702   .4164812     2.00   0.046     .0152821    1.647858
                 l_postcw |  -.2341423   .2081153    -1.13   0.261    -.6420408    .1737563
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.692307   .4388485     3.86   0.000     .8321795    2.552434
                       4  |   1.513002   .5871449     2.58   0.010     .3622196    2.663785
                       5  |  -.0420059   .2811678    -0.15   0.881    -.5930847     .509073
                          |
                    _cons |   .6587224   .8380485     0.79   0.432    -.9838224    2.301267
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  4.6008343
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model4

. **Model 5-8: Visits in the Second Term
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.region if termlimit_l1==1, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =        548
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         49

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.0369                                         min =          2
     between = 0.6038                                         avg =       11.2
     overall = 0.1285                                         max =         16

                                                Wald chi2(15)     =   28891.19
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 49 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .2145269   .1653649     1.30   0.195    -.1095824    .5386362
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |  -1.442534   .8013623    -1.80   0.072    -3.013176    .1281067
  visit_lameduck_official |   2.827708   3.149237     0.90   0.369    -3.344683    9.000098
                     demo |   .0570642   .3496327     0.16   0.870    -.6282033    .7423316
                  ln_cinc |  -.2473914   .1430508    -1.73   0.084    -.5277659    .0329831
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .9079856   .3048424     2.98   0.003     .3105055    1.505466
                          |
                  realgdp |   1.26e-07   1.93e-07     0.65   0.513    -2.51e-07    5.03e-07
                   growth |   3.407045   4.248296     0.80   0.423    -4.919462    11.73355
               landcontig |   1.418878   .5383881     2.64   0.008     .3636564    2.474099
                     viol |   -.354064   .3986958    -0.89   0.375    -1.135493    .4273655
                  rivalry |   .3008321   .2866256     1.05   0.294    -.2609438     .862608
                 l_postcw |   -.548401   .5187851    -1.06   0.290    -1.565201    .4683991
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.933697   .5340699     3.62   0.000      .886939    2.980454
                       4  |   7.620918   .8166773     9.33   0.000      6.02026    9.221576
                       5  |   .2065395   .2567729     0.80   0.421    -.2967261     .709805
                          |
                    _cons |  -1.512397   .8941665    -1.69   0.091    -3.264932    .2401367
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  5.5768831
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model5

. * Year FE
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry i.year i.region if termlimit_l1==1, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =        548
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         49

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.0797                                         min =          2
     between = 0.5833                                         avg =       11.2
     overall = 0.1642                                         max =         16

                                                Wald chi2(29)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 49 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .1851184   .1543254     1.20   0.230    -.1173539    .4875907
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |  -1.753213   .8147464    -2.15   0.031    -3.350087   -.1563394
  visit_lameduck_official |   2.893203   2.974411     0.97   0.331    -2.936534    8.722941
                     demo |   .4833746   .4553232     1.06   0.288    -.4090426    1.375792
                  ln_cinc |  -.2911948   .1773487    -1.64   0.101    -.6387918    .0564022
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .8440672   .3050703     2.77   0.006     .2461403    1.441994
                          |
                  realgdp |   2.37e-07   2.44e-07     0.97   0.331    -2.41e-07    7.15e-07
                   growth |   4.669293   4.119887     1.13   0.257    -3.405537    12.74412
               landcontig |   1.609012   .4868274     3.31   0.001     .6548477    2.563176
                     viol |  -.2887457   .4123681    -0.70   0.484    -1.096972     .519481
                  rivalry |   .3439235   .3171294     1.08   0.278    -.2776387    .9654857
                          |
                     year |
                    1951  |          0  (empty)
                    1952  |          0  (empty)
                    1953  |          0  (empty)
                    1954  |          0  (empty)
                    1955  |          0  (empty)
                    1956  |          0  (empty)
                    1957  |          0  (empty)
                    1958  |  -5.053667   1.620125    -3.12   0.002    -8.229053    -1.87828
                    1959  |  -2.295581   1.219171    -1.88   0.060    -4.685112    .0939492
                    1960  |  -1.337176   1.274213    -1.05   0.294    -3.834587    1.160236
                    1961  |  -.8787806   1.253657    -0.70   0.483    -3.335903    1.578342
                    1962  |          0  (empty)
                    1963  |          0  (empty)
                    1964  |          0  (empty)
                    1965  |          0  (empty)
                    1966  |          0  (empty)
                    1967  |          0  (empty)
                    1968  |          0  (empty)
                    1969  |          0  (empty)
                    1970  |          0  (empty)
                    1971  |          0  (empty)
                    1972  |          0  (empty)
                    1973  |          0  (empty)
                    1974  |  -.7469276   1.054132    -0.71   0.479    -2.812988    1.319133
                    1975  |  -.0625242   2.320401    -0.03   0.979    -4.610427    4.485378
                    1976  |          0  (empty)
                    1977  |          0  (empty)
                    1978  |          0  (empty)
                    1979  |          0  (empty)
                    1980  |          0  (empty)
                    1981  |          0  (empty)
                    1982  |          0  (empty)
                    1983  |          0  (empty)
                    1984  |          0  (empty)
                    1985  |          0  (empty)
                    1986  |  -2.856503   1.305112    -2.19   0.029    -5.414476   -.2985304
                    1987  |  -2.532968   1.800324    -1.41   0.159    -6.061538    .9956008
                    1988  |  -3.278546   1.593888    -2.06   0.040    -6.402509   -.1545831
                    1989  |  -3.189511   1.610455    -1.98   0.048    -6.345944   -.0330784
                    1990  |          0  (empty)
                    1991  |          0  (empty)
                    1992  |          0  (empty)
                    1993  |          0  (empty)
                    1994  |          0  (empty)
                    1995  |          0  (empty)
                    1996  |          0  (empty)
                    1997  |          0  (empty)
                    1998  |  -2.176113   1.521817    -1.43   0.153    -5.158821    .8065942
                    1999  |  -1.947064   1.286764    -1.51   0.130    -4.469076    .5749468
                    2000  |  -3.142326   1.642946    -1.91   0.056    -6.362441    .0777898
                    2001  |  -3.760955   2.183028    -1.72   0.085    -8.039611    .5177004
                    2002  |          0  (empty)
                    2003  |          0  (empty)
                    2004  |          0  (empty)
                    2005  |          0  (empty)
                    2006  |  -3.037819   1.656521    -1.83   0.067     -6.28454    .2089024
                    2007  |  -2.829336   1.797287    -1.57   0.115    -6.351954    .6932813
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |    2.02756   .5519921     3.67   0.000     .9456755    3.109445
                       4  |   7.805831   .8136104     9.59   0.000     6.211184    9.400478
                       5  |    .181545   .2838465     0.64   0.522     -.374784     .737874
                          |
                    _cons |          0  (omitted)
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  5.5264559
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model6

. * Country FE
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry l_postcw i.ccode if termlimit_l1==1, robust cluster(ccode)
note: 740.ccode omitted because of collinearity
note: 920.ccode omitted because of collinearity

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =        548
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         49

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.0386                                         min =          2
     between = 1.0000                                         avg =       11.2
     overall = 0.1538                                         max =         16

                                                Wald chi2(10)     =          .
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =          .

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 49 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .1663935    .196674     0.85   0.398    -.2190805    .5518674
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |  -1.393947   .8492466    -1.64   0.101     -3.05844    .2705456
  visit_lameduck_official |   2.736367    3.17918     0.86   0.389    -3.494711    8.967445
                     demo |     .45117    .664282     0.68   0.497    -.8507987    1.753139
                  ln_cinc |  -1.302013    1.98214    -0.66   0.511    -5.186937     2.58291
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |    .981897   .3672439     2.67   0.008     .2621121    1.701682
                          |
                  realgdp |   1.88e-07   4.28e-07     0.44   0.660    -6.50e-07    1.03e-06
                   growth |   3.450323   4.529797     0.76   0.446    -5.427915    12.32856
               landcontig |   5.473073   6.155293     0.89   0.374    -6.591081    17.53723
                     viol |    5.25052   9.344365     0.56   0.574     -13.0641    23.56514
                  rivalry |    .275251   .5788375     0.48   0.634    -.8592496    1.409752
                 l_postcw |  -.4936487   .4883945    -1.01   0.312    -1.450884     .463587
                          |
                    ccode |
                      41  |          0  (empty)
                      42  |  -4.655175   8.686348    -0.54   0.592     -21.6801    12.36975
                      51  |  -1.185425   2.568416    -0.46   0.644    -6.219427    3.848578
                      52  |   .4364895   .7116077     0.61   0.540    -.9582359    1.831215
                      70  |   -6.40979   9.015158    -0.71   0.477    -24.07917    11.25959
                      90  |  -4.856118   8.712728    -0.56   0.577    -21.93275    12.22051
                      91  |  -6.043271   9.938454    -0.61   0.543    -25.52228    13.43574
                      92  |  -4.859955   9.842624    -0.49   0.621    -24.15114    14.43123
                      93  |  -5.876757    10.0214    -0.59   0.558    -25.51834    13.76482
                      95  |  -5.621957   10.64708    -0.53   0.597    -26.48985    15.24594
                     100  |  -3.024081   5.025586    -0.60   0.547    -12.87405    6.825886
                     101  |   2.600026   4.338913     0.60   0.549    -5.904087    11.10414
                     110  |  -3.167639   5.269438    -0.60   0.548    -13.49555    7.160271
                     130  |    .999086   1.658266     0.60   0.547    -2.251055    4.249227
                     135  |  -3.027834   5.917064    -0.51   0.609    -14.62507    8.569399
                     140  |   4.662549   7.657631     0.61   0.543    -10.34613    19.67123
                     145  |  -4.618278   8.424302    -0.55   0.584    -21.12961    11.89305
                     150  |  -5.279117   10.00405    -0.53   0.598    -24.88669    14.32846
                     155  |  -2.944861    5.95775    -0.49   0.621    -14.62184    8.732114
                     160  |  -2.553102   4.479985    -0.57   0.569    -11.33371    6.227507
                     165  |   -5.14756   9.585623    -0.54   0.591    -23.93504    13.63992
                     200  |  -.2551012   1.147343    -0.22   0.824    -2.503852     1.99365
                     210  |   -.436895   4.614349    -0.09   0.925    -9.480852    8.607062
                     211  |  -1.576203   5.004021    -0.31   0.753     -11.3839    8.231499
                     220  |  -.1519651     1.4936    -0.10   0.919    -3.079367    2.775437
                     230  |   .5124383   3.741776     0.14   0.891    -6.821307    7.846184
                     235  |   6.736378   2.309715     2.92   0.004     2.209421    11.26334
                     260  |   .2004432   1.263523     0.16   0.874    -2.276017    2.676903
                     290  |   2.693121   4.578763     0.59   0.556     -6.28109    11.66733
                     310  |  -.7760204   7.651496    -0.10   0.919    -15.77268    14.22064
                     316  |  -1.130398    2.82441    -0.40   0.689     -6.66614    4.405344
                     317  |   2.181023   1.910959     1.14   0.254    -1.564388    5.926434
                     325  |   5.994759    6.81008     0.88   0.379    -7.352752    19.34227
                     349  |  -5.379068   10.54175    -0.51   0.610    -26.04051    15.28238
                     350  |   .1679411    6.11693     0.03   0.978    -11.82102     12.1569
                     355  |  -3.620108   7.501934    -0.48   0.629    -18.32363    11.08341
                     360  |  -2.827083   5.800448    -0.49   0.626    -14.19575    8.541586
                     366  |  -.2787949   2.449424    -0.11   0.909    -5.079578    4.521988
                     367  |   .5341734   1.250009     0.43   0.669    -1.915799    2.984145
                     368  |   .1162876   .7654996     0.15   0.879    -1.384064    1.616639
                     385  |   2.927508   1.774412     1.65   0.099    -.5502757    6.405292
                     390  |   3.716307   1.617034     2.30   0.022     .5469784    6.885635
                     640  |   5.703041   3.794044     1.50   0.133    -1.733147    13.13923
                     713  |          0  (empty)
                     732  |  -1.396005   2.287263    -0.61   0.542    -5.878959    3.086949
                     740  |          0  (omitted)
                     770  |   4.031661   6.213341     0.65   0.516    -8.146263    16.20959
                     840  |   2.712821   4.346803     0.62   0.533    -5.806756     11.2324
                     900  |   3.376691   5.001163     0.68   0.500    -6.425408    13.17879
                     920  |          0  (omitted)
                          |
                    _cons |  -10.23541   15.05564    -0.68   0.497    -39.74392    19.27309
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  5.5768831
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model7

. * Additional controls
. xtreg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch visit_nolameduck_official visit_lameduck_official demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp g
> rowth landcontig viol rivalry nukes_us_b affinity_us l_postcw i.region if termlimit_l1==1, robust cluster(ccode)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =        548
Group variable: ccode                           Number of groups  =         49

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.0401                                         min =          2
     between = 0.6004                                         avg =       11.2
     overall = 0.1300                                         max =         16

                                                Wald chi2(17)     =   26844.92
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                              (Std. Err. adjusted for 49 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          |               Robust
              defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              defspend_ch |
                      L1. |   .2131063   .1625486     1.31   0.190    -.1054832    .5316957
                          |
visit_nolameduck_official |  -1.435382   .8121731    -1.77   0.077    -3.027212    .1564484
  visit_lameduck_official |   2.791004   3.197046     0.87   0.383    -3.475091    9.057098
                     demo |   .1139251   .3513774     0.32   0.746     -.574762    .8026123
                  ln_cinc |  -.2875165   .1416957    -2.03   0.042     -.565235    -.009798
                          |
                 midcount |
                      L1. |   .8952719   .3040597     2.94   0.003     .2993258    1.491218
                          |
                  realgdp |   1.50e-07   2.10e-07     0.71   0.475    -2.62e-07    5.63e-07
                   growth |   3.396136   4.297393     0.79   0.429      -5.0266    11.81887
               landcontig |   1.348996    .427582     3.15   0.002     .5109505    2.187041
                     viol |  -.4152196   .3710349    -1.12   0.263    -1.142435    .3119954
                  rivalry |     .28212   .3029453     0.93   0.352     -.311642    .8758819
               nukes_us_b |   .4812657   .7454206     0.65   0.519    -.9797319    1.942263
            affinity_us_b |   .4635347   .2428275     1.91   0.056    -.0123985    .9394679
                 l_postcw |  -.3274801   .5146574    -0.64   0.525     -1.33619      .68123
                          |
                   region |
                       2  |   1.562741   .6975332     2.24   0.025      .195601    2.929881
                       4  |   7.165279   1.243916     5.76   0.000     4.727249     9.60331
                       5  |   .0899414   .2711892     0.33   0.740    -.4415797    .6214625
                          |
                    _cons |  -1.782381   .9164592    -1.94   0.052    -3.578608    .0138463
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  sigma_u |          0
                  sigma_e |  5.5680413
                      rho |          0   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. eststo model8

. 
. esttab using table8.tex, replace label se nodepvars booktabs alignment(l) width(0.8\hsize) ///
> b(3)  addn(Robust standard errors are clustered by countries and in parentheses.) /// 
> star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** .01 *** .001) stats(N r2, label("N Obs." "Overall $R^2$")) nogaps scalars("N Obs." "R squared
> " ) ///
> title(Diplomatic visits during the first and second terms of the presidency\label{reg8})
(output written to table8.tex)

. 
. 
. ** Figure 1: Interaction with years in office
. reg defspend_ch L.defspend_ch i.vis_us_b1##i.tenure_l1 demo ln_cinc L.midcount realgdp growth landcontig viol rival
> ry l_postcw i.region, robust cluster(ccode)

Linear regression                               Number of obs     =      1,831
                                                F(19, 50)         =          .
                                                Prob > F          =          .
                                                R-squared         =     0.1918
                                                Root MSE          =     4.8696

                                        (Std. Err. adjusted for 51 clusters in ccode)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    |               Robust
        defspend_ch |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        defspend_ch |
                L1. |   .3164515   .0523535     6.04   0.000     .2112963    .4216066
                    |
        1.vis_us_b1 |  -.0424071   .5190602    -0.08   0.935     -1.08497    1.000156
                    |
          tenure_l1 |
                 2  |   .2957194   .2163809     1.37   0.178    -.1388945    .7303333
                 3  |   .7120783   .2905547     2.45   0.018      .128482    1.295674
                 4  |  -.4294337   .2614175    -1.64   0.107    -.9545062    .0956388
                    |
vis_us_b1#tenure_l1 |
               1 2  |  -.5680389   .5693491    -1.00   0.323     -1.71161    .5755324
               1 3  |   -1.84542   .9892799    -1.87   0.068    -3.832447    .1416073
               1 4  |   1.228928   1.025124     1.20   0.236    -.8300945     3.28795
                    |
               demo |  -.0684113   .2577739    -0.27   0.792    -.5861655    .4493429
            ln_cinc |  -.0487474   .0815944    -0.60   0.553    -.2126345    .1151398
                    |
           midcount |
                L1. |   .5193816   .2727189     1.90   0.063    -.0283904    1.067154
                    |
            realgdp |  -2.31e-07   2.90e-07    -0.79   0.431    -8.14e-07    3.52e-07
             growth |   3.274603   1.698878     1.93   0.060    -.1376942      6.6869
         landcontig |   .6872338   .2489331     2.76   0.008      .187237    1.187231
               viol |  -.2451418   .1259576    -1.95   0.057    -.4981351    .0078514
            rivalry |    .031071   .1762271     0.18   0.861    -.3228916    .3850335
           l_postcw |  -.4897593   .2496767    -1.96   0.055    -.9912497    .0117311
                    |
             region |
                 2  |   1.816782   .3207317     5.66   0.000     1.172573     2.46099
                 4  |   2.987915   .3256645     9.17   0.000     2.333799    3.642032
                 5  |    .088472   .1671836     0.53   0.599    -.2473262    .4242702
                    |
              _cons |  -.2337799   .6143157    -0.38   0.705    -1.467669     1.00011
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(vis_us_b1) at(tenure_l1==(1 (1) 4))

Average marginal effects                        Number of obs     =      1,831
Model VCE    : Robust

Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : 1.vis_us_b1

1._at        : tenure_l1       =           1

2._at        : tenure_l1       =           2

3._at        : tenure_l1       =           3

4._at        : tenure_l1       =           4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
1.vis_us_b1  |
         _at |
          1  |  -.0424071   .5190602    -0.08   0.935     -1.08497    1.000156
          2  |   -.610446   .2881942    -2.12   0.039    -1.189301    -.031591
          3  |  -1.887827   .7165781    -2.63   0.011    -3.327117   -.4485374
          4  |    1.18652   1.162973     1.02   0.313    -1.149379     3.52242
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.

. marginsplot

  Variables that uniquely identify margins: tenure_l1

. 
end of do-file

. log close
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  /Users/jamesdkim/Library/CloudStorage/Dropbox/Working Papers/Leadership Visits and Military Expenditures
> /FPA Second R&R/Replication files submission/Log File 2024-0714.log
  log type:  text
 closed on:  14 Jul 2024, 14:08:13
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